2011 SE TX/SW LA Weather: Nice weather next several days

[southerngale]

OMG! I've been gone since about 9:00 this morning and just saw what happened in SW LA.
We had thunderstorms here and quite a bit of rain, but nothing severe like that! May God comfort that little girl... she's going to be missing her Mommy.

[vbhoutex]

The tornado has now been rated EF3 from what I understand. I'm not sure where the EF0 came from initially, but it was said to be official. Maybe they weren't through with the evaluation when that information was released. I guess we will know for sure as soon as the full report is out. Anyway you look at it though it had caused a lot of misery and at least 1 death in Rayne. Prayers going out to all those affected. Glad to know you are ok CM!!!

edit to add: Here is the current official NWS report.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

[CajunMama]

We have a new weathergirl on KATC and she keeps saying the rayne tornado was a F2 not an EF2. I think she's kinda dense.

The EF0 was the tornado in crowley which is about 8 miles to the west of rayne.

[CajunMama]

A drugstore in rayne had a surveillance camera that was able to record the tornado ... Tornado caught on tape - 4 angles - Rayne, LA

[PTrackerLA]

We're hatched in the 30% threat for severe weather for tomorrow evening/night. While we need the rain hopefully we don't have to deal with another tornado outbreak.

[BigB0882]

I am visiting family in Beaumont, TX and we are heading back to Baton Rouge tomorrow. Should I leave first thing in the morning or should I wait this out and leave in the evening? When do they think the severe weather threat will begin? Thanks!

[CajunMama]

The forecast for Lafayette is

Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. South wind around 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 63. Southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

And what a local tv station is saying is that the severe weather (if any) will be late tuesday night. So you'll be ok to travel during the day though it might be wet!

[Brent]

Security camera video of Saturday's tornado in Rayne:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Koc56bygSS8

Fascinating...

[CajunMama]

BigB...a little change in the forecast...leave in the am!

Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after noon. Some of the storms could be severe and produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. South wind between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some of the storms could be severe and produce heavy rainfall. Cloudy, with a low around 64. South wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

[BigB0882]

Thanks! We got out of Beaumont a little after 9 this morning and made it into Baton Rouge about 12:15 Thank goodness because part of the parish is under a tornado warning as I type! Luckily I am a little south of that so dodged the bullet this time but I think this storm is just a passing storm and the big event is still to come later this evening.

[vbhoutex]

Storms moving through right now. Very little precip so far, but plenty of CG and winds gusting around 35 mph. Looked real nasty as the gust front came through, but not rotations noted that I could see. Rain is starting in earnest now. Hope we get as much as the radar indicates we might. We have had less than an inch of rain so far this year.

[PTrackerLA]

Good luck with the rain, I hope we get a good soaking here too. I sneezed my butt off all weekend, I can tell pollen is very high in the air again!

[vbhoutex]

Storms moving through right now. Very little precip so far, but plenty of CG and winds gusting around 35 mph. Looked real nasty as the gust front came through, but not rotations noted that I could see. Rain is starting in earnest now. Hope we get as much as the radar indicates we might. We have had less than an inch of rain so far this year.

We ended up with 0.43" of rain which is the most we have gotten in one day since the year started. Now we need a few more like that.
I feel you on the allergies. UUUUGGHHHHH!!!! At least the pollen will be lower for a day or two after the rain.

[vbhoutex]

What a beautiful day it was in Houston today!!! Got the yard fertilized and watered in. Hopefully it will start to grow and thicken now. The winter did a real number on it, especially after our drought last year. tonight the clouds didn't come in thick enough to keep me from seeing the super moon tonight. Probably will pretty soon though if it hasn't already. I may check again later.

[vbhoutex]

The days are gorgeous one after another here. Lots of yard work getting done, much to the chagrin of my body. My concern is twofold with this weather though. First we are in a worsening drought and it doesn't look like we will see any significant rain anytime soon. Next our temps, though wonderfully comfortable are running about 1015 degrees above normal on a consistent basis. I hope this is not a harbinger of things to come. Meanwhile I intend to continue enjoying this weather!!

[Jagno]

This wind is wreaking havoc on my plants, my hair and everything else that isn't nailed down good. It certainly isn't helping our drought situation either. Enough already!

One thing is for sure, the mosquitoes, red ants, bees and wasp are loving it because they are in full swing already. Ask me how I know? LOL I'm a walking billboard of their successful return.

We have a cold front moving through tonight which may dry us out even more. Our only hope for rain is Monday at 40% however that does come with a small chance of severe weather as well. I guess I'll just keep watering.

[PTrackerLA]

The GFS looks promising for some soaking rains at some point next week, but it seems as these events draw closer the models back off more and more. If we don't start getting rain again by next week I have a feeling we're in for a severe drought this spring into summer. Seems like this occurs just about every spring now!

[srainhoutx]

Good News! Models are converging on a solution that looks to offer some drought relief for our area. Rain/storm chance look to increasing beginning next Tuesday and continue through Thursday of next week as a potent Southerly tracking Upper Air disturbance moves slowly across TX. We should see a weak cool front Sunday/Monday that quickly retreats N as a warm front bringing a southerly flow off the Gulf with some much deeper moisture than we've seen of late. Rain/thunderstorm chances look fairly widespread on Wednesday continuing into Thursday. Some strong storms are not out of the question and will need to be monitored for a possibility of even some severe storm chances. A pattern change continues to look likely.

[vbhoutex]

this is indeed good news, if it verifies. NEED RAIN!!!

[srainhoutx]

The GFS and Canadian continue to advertise a decent chance of rain/storms beginning Tuesday afternoon/evening and continuing into Thursday. The ECMWF suggests a drier pattern, but all the guidance is hinting at a strong cold front mid next week. SPC is hinting a Slight Risk for severe storms as well for our general area in the medium range as well...

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

VALID 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY PROGRESSIVE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH AT
LEAST DAY 5. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN
DISCREPANCIES EXIST REGARDING AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF WAVES WHICH
LOWERS OVERALL PREDICTABILITY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.

DAY 4...MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM
THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST
BY ECMWF WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE TN
VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD
THROUGH TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH
ITS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...BUT GIVEN LIKELIHOOD THAT STRONGER
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE WAVE WILL REMAIN IN COOL
SECTOR...LOW LEVEL RESPONSE WILL PROBABLY BE WEAKER SUPPORTING THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. IN EITHER CASE...SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
EXIST IN WARM SECTOR FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL RESIDE AND SHEAR WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF SEWD MOVING COLD
FRONT. PORTIONS OF ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY MAY NEED TO BE
INCLUDED IN A RISK AREA IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

DAY 6-7...ENSEMBLE SPREADS AND MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME LARGE WITH
REGARD TO UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SERN STATES. GFS
IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED...DEVELOPING A DEEPER SURFACE LOW OVER
THE NERN GULF COASTAL REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED...WEAKER SOLUTION. SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER COULD
EVOLVE ACROSS FL DAY 6...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME
GIVEN THE DISPERSIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

..DIAL.. 03/26/2011