Development in SW Caribbean-0%

[sky1989]

It seems to me that, although the East Pacific is more favorable, convection is continuously trying to focus in the SW Carribbean. I think there is still a chance that the Caribbean could get something from this.

[Ivanhater]

0z NOGAPS is on drugs
0z GFS back on sending this into the PAC...

The models have always sent it to the Epac...the question is what basin does it develop in first.





12z Nam send it NW

[Macrocane]

NHC likes the conservative solution of the Euro (From the latest EPAC TWD):

...DISCUSSION...
E OF 110W...THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH AN INCREASE IN SW FLOW OVER N PACIFIC
WATERS E OF 105W. A 03Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT S OF
WESTERN PANAMA...INDICATING THE SW MONSOON FLOW IS STARTING TO
INCREASE. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG 95W S OF 08N INDICATED ONLY 15
KT AT 12Z...BUT SHIP OBSERVATIONS JUST E OF THE AREA ARE SHOWING
WINDS TO 20 KT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INITIALIZE WELL WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS AND BOTH SLOW A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING
ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE MORE
DIVERGENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE GFS STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE
SHOWING SW TO W FLOW INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...FEEDING LOW PRES
SYSTEM THAT SLOWLY ORGANIZES OFF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE
SAT OR EARLY SUN. THE ECMWF BY CONTRAST SHOWS A MORE MODEST 20
TO 25 KT SURGE OF SW TO W WINDS...AND HAS BACKED OFF DEVELOPING
LOW PRES OFF CENTRAL AMERICA AND INSTEAD IS SHOWING A LOW OFF
SOUTHERN MEXICO BY LATE SAT. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE SHOWING A
DEEPER LOW IN THE SAME AREA...BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER. FORECAST
WILL FOLLOW MORE MODERATE ECMWF SOLUTION INTO THE WEEKEND.

[wxman57]

No evidence of an LLC in the latest obs down there. Not much time remaining over water. Will probably just move into Central America tomorrow as it is. Development threat in East Pac, perhaps.

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFTS WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEHWERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Ivanhater]

[Sanibel]

Good rotation but too far south for Atlantic concern IMO...


A curved wave is exiting Africa but the Atlantic will probably eat it up.

[Ivanhater]

Possible Recon Mission Saturday

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU 14 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-044

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW
LEVEL INVEST AT 16/1900Z NEAR 12N 82W.

[TYNI]

Possible Recon Mission tomorrow

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU 14 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-044

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW
LEVEL INVEST AT 16/1900Z NEAR 12N 82W.

They must think this is a player to schedule this (seems early to me???). Again, another one that may run out of time due to land interaction.

[HURAKAN]

not tomorrow but Saturday. Says 16th and today is the 14th.

[Ivanhater]

Good catch Sandy!

[HURAKAN]

Good catch Sandy!

np ... I think it's just a precautionary measure in case the system suddenly becomes better organized in the next 24 hours or so

[plasticup]

Visible imagery shows rotation, but I can't tell if it is near the surface.

[Hurricaneman]

My personal opinion nothing official, I think this is going to run out of room and develop in the pacific

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
DRIFTING WESTWARD. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF IT BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS MOVING INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND
COSTA RICA...AND INTERACTION WITH LAND IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE
...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[plasticup]

See you on the EPac, buddy!

[Frank2]

Yeah, that's a goner...

It's q-u-i-e-t right now - but it sure is hot - not even 10 a.m. here and already it's in the upper 80's and humid...

People ask what it's like with that temp and RH - well, just take a hot shower, and how the bathroom feels when you turn off the water, well, that's how it feels - America's version of Southeast Asia, and we wonder why the constrictors feel right at home in the Everglades...

LOL

Frank