Area of disturbed weather over the southern GOM

[ozonepete]

In light of all you guys just said, the biggest thing is the upper level low as you pointed out tailgater. That has to go or this will not develop (let's see, rockyman). And yes, wxman, I also don't see much coming out of this so far. I'd give it 30% max. I just love the watching and I'm bored anyway.

[vbhoutex]

I am becoming concerned that this area will end up "combining" with the ULL to our NW over OK and N TX and bring in massive amounts of moisture/rain. Is this a possibility/probability? I haven't looked at the sat loops or models yet. Would love to hear from some of our mets. Lots of scattered storms coming in off the GOM even at this late hour so there is obviously plenty of moisture available and enough instability to cause the storms.

[Rgv20]

The 0zNAM tries to get it organized but before it can get going it goes inland by Wednesday Morning in NE Mexico/South Texas..



Uploaded with ImageShack.us



This is the Buoy in the BOC SE winds all day and so far tonight..



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Dean4Storms]

MLC looking more impressive this morning....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

[RL3AO]

That is some very moist air moving over Texas. David might be onto something.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[cycloneye]

This area is now invest 97L. Go to active storms/invests forum to continue the discussions.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=115246&hilit=&p=2320871#p2320871

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307161830
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2013, DB, O, 2013071618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972013
AL, 97, 2013071518, , BEST, 0, 213N, 941W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2013071600, , BEST, 0, 217N, 944W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2013071606, , BEST, 0, 221N, 946W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2013071612, , BEST, 0, 226N, 949W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2013071618, , BEST, 0, 230N, 950W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[ROCK]

looked better yesterday...IMO....all at the mid levels...however if you look at the CMC from a few days ago it did call for development in this general area....just saying...

[Blown Away]

Amazed over the past few years how much activity has been in such a small region. Conditions always seem to be good enough for systems to get going...

[Extratropical94]

First tropical models on 97L

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1833 UTC TUE JUL 16 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972013) 20130716 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130716 1800 130717 0600 130717 1800 130718 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.0N 95.0W 24.0N 96.7W 25.2N 98.3W 26.2N 100.3W
BAMD 23.0N 95.0W 23.6N 96.1W 24.1N 97.4W 24.5N 98.7W
BAMM 23.0N 95.0W 23.9N 96.3W 24.7N 97.8W 25.4N 99.5W
LBAR 23.0N 95.0W 23.7N 96.1W 24.5N 97.6W 25.2N 99.1W
SHIP 20KTS 27KTS 35KTS 43KTS
DSHP 20KTS 27KTS 30KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130718 1800 130719 1800 130720 1800 130721 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.6N 102.2W 30.2N 105.1W 31.8N 107.6W 33.6N 111.5W
BAMD 24.8N 99.9W 25.3N 101.3W 25.8N 102.2W 26.9N 104.0W
BAMM 26.4N 101.0W 28.3N 103.2W 29.6N 105.3W 31.3N 109.3W
LBAR 25.6N 100.6W 26.8N 103.1W 28.2N 105.1W 30.8N 107.7W
SHIP 49KTS 54KTS 58KTS 60KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.0N LONCUR = 95.0W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 22.1N LONM12 = 94.6W DIRM12 = 333DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 21.3N LONM24 = 94.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Hurricanehink]

Surprised no mention in TWO. Maybe STWO soon?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Any circulation with 97L is restricted solely in the mid levels. Despite the influence of the Bay of Campeche, the system probably does not have enough time to develop a well-defined surface circulation before moving ashore in northern Mexico in 18-24 hours.

Sure looks nice convectively though.

[ROCK]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

floater already up

[wxman57]

Development chances low. Should move inland into Mexico tomorrow.

[Blown Away]

Mexico bound!

[Extratropical94]

Does the SHIP intensity forecast go up to 60 knots because it doesn't take land interaction into account or does that have another reason?

[southerngale]

Although this isn't likely to develop and wouldn't head north anyway, there is definitely a lot of moisture streaming off the GOM into SE TX. I've gotten quite a bit of rain since Sunday, off and on. I just had one very strong storm that dropped about an inch in a short time. A few jump out of your skin moments with the thunder as well and I LOVE storms. I picked up 2 1/2 inches in another strong storm on Sunday as well with scattered showers off and on in between. I know I'm one of the lucky ones... I hope 97L brings others some much needed rain.

[tailgater]

This little disturbance maybe getting a surface relection, i just looked at a wind map from
http://www.sailwx.info/wxobs/winddirection.phtml
and it shows somewhat of a circulation.
We can't write it off just yet, but it doesn't have much time as stated before.