Convection off SW FL

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
jeff
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 831
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 6:14 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:
Contact jeff

Re: Convection off SW FL

#21 Postby jeff » Mon Aug 19, 2013 6:12 pm

outflow boundary racing out to the north clearly seen on visible images. Would expect any development to be slow as it moves W to WNW.
0 likes   
Top
nautical wheeler
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 28
Joined: Mon Aug 27, 2012 2:13 pm

Re: Convection off SW FL

#22 Postby nautical wheeler » Mon Aug 19, 2013 7:08 pm

What is that spin coming off the tip of Florida? Is that just an upper level spin? It appears to be hindering the convection.

Boy the atmosphere sure is moist over the GOM and Caribbean. Looks primed for some kind of spin up.
0 likes   
Top
HurricaneDREW92
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 320
Age: 27
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 11:56 am
Location: Boston, MA

Re: Convection off SW FL

#23 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Mon Aug 19, 2013 7:20 pm

jeff wrote:outflow boundary racing out to the north clearly seen on visible images. Would expect any development to be slow as it moves W to WNW.

Jeff, any chance it may pop up in the next 2 TWOs?
0 likes   
This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

-THE ABOVE IS THE OPINION OF DREW ONLY
Top
Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#24 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 19, 2013 7:25 pm

I'll admit, never remember so much convection in the Gulf in mid August over such an extended period of time with no TC formation.
0 likes   
Top
Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#25 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 19, 2013 7:30 pm

Hmmm...after looking at some high resolution loops there could be at least an MLC or 850mb Vort circulation near 24.5N 85.5W under that continuous convective cloud moving just south of due west. Using the NASA site and speeding up the loop.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#26 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 19, 2013 7:34 pm

No mention:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 192328
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
0 likes   
Top
Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#27 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 20, 2013 6:51 am

You can see that circulation this morning on RGB....23.5N 87.5W
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22979
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Convection off SW FL

#28 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 20, 2013 7:31 am

There's nothing there this morning. No development from this area.
0 likes   
Top
otowntiger
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1921
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm

Re: Convection off SW FL

#29 Postby otowntiger » Tue Aug 20, 2013 7:52 am

wxman57 wrote:There's nothing there this morning. No development from this area.
Yeehaw!!! :wink: 8-)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3386
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:
Contact tropicwatch

Re: Convection off SW FL

#30 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Aug 20, 2013 8:27 am

Appears to be something just north of Yucatan but no convection. If it stays there a few days maybe, something could form.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rgb.html
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#31 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 20, 2013 8:28 am

like fish out of water ... gasping for air!
0 likes   
Top
nautical wheeler
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 28
Joined: Mon Aug 27, 2012 2:13 pm

Re: Convection off SW FL

#32 Postby nautical wheeler » Tue Aug 20, 2013 9:47 am

Is there just no convergence in the gulf right now? Is the atmosphere just so stable over the GOM and Caribbean that convection can't sustain itself? I see these little flare ups that are like flash in the pans and any developments that do form can't seem to sustain deep convection at all. Versus the EPAC where hot towers seem to be the rule rather than the exception.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot] and 29 guests