One year ago: Hurricane Sandy

[CrazyC83]

The Sandy track forecast was extremely easy. One of the easiest storms one can forecast.

6 day forecast error was less than 105NM and the 7 day error was comparable to the mean 5 day error, and that was mainly due to timing

A lot of it was due to courage of the forecasters to trust the Euro, since the GFS still took it out to sea when the official forecast started to show landfall.

[CrazyC83]

Peak winds here: 41 mph sustained, 56 mph gusts - at the surface. Outside my elevated apartment, you could probably add 10 to 20 mph to those.

[Alyono]

The Sandy track forecast was extremely easy. One of the easiest storms one can forecast.

6 day forecast error was less than 105NM and the 7 day error was comparable to the mean 5 day error, and that was mainly due to timing

A lot of it was due to courage of the forecasters to trust the Euro, since the GFS still took it out to sea when the official forecast started to show landfall.

Was a straight forward synoptic pattern. GFS was taking Sandy THROUGH a ridge. An easy decision to disregard that model.