45 knots...
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 123.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ALESSIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A COMPACT AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A PARTIAL 221513Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE AND A PARTIAL 221837Z AMSU-B 89
GHZ IMAGE DEPICT CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER,
PROVIDING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. TC 02S IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE NORTHERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA THROUGH
TAU 36 AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 48. TC ALESSIA IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 12 BUT SHOULD WEAKEN
THEREAFTER DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND DRY AIR INTRUSION. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF A DEVELOPING HIGH OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA, WHICH WILL ACT
TO SLOW THE SYSTEM AND TURN IT EQUATORWARD. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS
THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS, WHICH INDICATE A TURN SOUTHWARD NEAR
THE WESTERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA AFTER TAU 72. DUE TO THE DEVELOPING
HIGH AND PERSISTENT LAND INTERACTION, REGENERATION OVER THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA IS UNLIKELY. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST DUE THE SHARP DIFFERENCES IN THE SOUTHWARD TRACK AFTER
TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 232100Z.//
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