Expert forecasts for 2014 N Atl Hurricane season

[ninel conde]

I feel that 2014 will once again be a below average season somewhat similar to 2013. Might as well just play it safe and expect the possibility of well below average instability throughout the Atlantic basin especially the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic. Pretty decent chance that this season will in fact be an El Niño season since we have not seen an El Niño season in over four years now. Also would not be surprised to see a good bit of dry air and wind shear throughout the season especially if an El Niño does occur. But of course it is WAY TOO SOON to be making these types of predictions for the 2014 season especially after the big bust of a season 2013 was.

the pattern is shaping up like a carbon copy of last year. ridge west, trough east and a broad wnw flow sweeping off the east coast. too early for concrete predictions but it would be totally stunning if we add to the major cane record of not landfalling in the US. this is a multi-year pattern now since at least 2009. when will the pattern reverse? there is good news of course, if this remains the constant pattern severe season should be below normal and cane landfalls anywhere in the continental US would be unlikely, though an oddity can always occur. right now odds favor another ridge sitting over texas this cane season. very protective of the US.

[Frank2]

Just an FYI that NOAA/HRD does not put out a seasonal forecast as far as I've heard, but so far as others said it seems last year's pattern is continuing...

[ninel conde]

Just an FYI that NOAA/HRD does not put out a seasonal forecast as far as I've heard, but so far as others said it seems last year's pattern is continuing...

actually its a multi-year pattern that is continuing. texas ridge/east coast trough has become the norm. very little rain is getting into the south central plains once again which is setting up a hot dry cane season ridge once again over texas.

[hurricanetrack]

You guys do know it is JANUARY, right? A little early for the "Season Cancel" crowd - but alas, here they are. Man, gonna be a long year on this board.......

[Hurricaneman]

You guys do know it is JANUARY, right? A little early for the "Season Cancel" crowd - but alas, here they are. Man, gonna be a long year on this board.......

The tropical atlantic has above normal instability right now but will it continue into the hurricane season or will it drop to below normal levels like they have been the last 2 years and the other factor is will an El Nino show up or will it stay neutral this season as I will give another forecast in the 2014 amateur forecast thread that will be done the first of February

But as of now I agree that we can't cancel the season even if we have nothing by August 1st

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ninel conde]

i dont think anyone is cancelling the season, but right now there has been no change to the multi-year pattern of texas/ridge/east coast trof. instability has spiked up for a day or 2. lets see if we can get the monthly averages above normal.

[ninel conde]

it was just a 1 day spike. well below normal again.

[cycloneye]

Here is a good articule that discuss about the experts doing research to find what was the real factor(s) behind the slow 2013 season. At the end of the articule Dr Klotzbach says they are confident CSU will continue to issue forecasts.

http://www.coloradoan.com/article/20140 ... ane-season

[CajunMama]

I have to say it was nice to have a quiet season like 2013 after some of the seasons we have in the past years. I think Mother Nature knew we needed a break!

I just hop that there is NOT any type of tropical weather or any kind of raindrop from 9/12/14 thru 9/14/14. My daughter has chosen 9/13/13 as her wedding date, in south Louisiana, in late summer, in the middle of hurricane season for an OUTDOOR wedding!!!!!!!! Already my stomach has been in knots over something I can't control though I do plan on purchasing wedding insurance just in case!

hurricanetrack..I do like your profile pic! … ba ba bababa What Is Love??????

[cycloneye]

I have to say it was nice to have a quiet season like 2013 after some of the seasons we have in the past years. I think Mother Nature knew we needed a break!

I just hop that there is NOT any type of tropical weather or any kind of raindrop from 9/12/14 thru 9/14/14. My daughter has chosen 9/13/13 as her wedding date, in south Louisiana, in late summer, in the middle of hurricane season for an OUTDOOR wedding!!!!!!!! Already my stomach has been in knots over something I can't control though I do plan on purchasing wedding insurance just in case!

hurricanetrack..I do like your profile pic! … ba ba bababa What Is Love??????

I hope that all goes well weatherwise with the wedding and party on those dates and if a system is in the GOM it weakens without doing anything to your area.

[Ntxw]

Will be interesting to see if the US major hurricane hit and Florida's (the state has been Hurricane free since Wilma) drought will continue. It's been quite the stretch, if someone told me that back in the mid 2000s it would happen I would've thought they were nuts!

[ninel conde]

i think its likely to continue though even in the most hostile years an oddity can occur. right now the seemingly permanment far below normal instability continues and if it doesnt reverse it wont matter what the pacific sst's look like.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... t_THDV.gif

my early speculation is 7/2/0 this season

[cycloneye]

Is still early but I can say "here we go again".

[TheStormExpert]

I can see S. Florida's hurricane free streak and the U.S. no major hurricane streak lasting at least 10 years especially if the 2014 season turns out to be an El Niño season. Like shown above the Tropical Atlantic instability is just as bad (if not worse) than last year at this time.

[Hurricaneman]

If the instability figures stay low in the MDR and subtropics but somehow remain high in the other regions it could lead to quick developing systems west of 60W leading to potential landfall problems so this may not be a year where you look out towards Africa but a close to home for trouble like in 1985 where Gloria didnt get going until about 55W and most of the activity was near land(hence the 8 landfalls) so while there may be little to no activity in the MDR a similar type of instability anomaly to what we have now could spell trouble for landfalls especially if no El Nino shows up until later in the hurricane season

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ninel conde]

If the instability figures stay low in the MDR and subtropics but somehow remain high in the other regions it could lead to quick developing systems west of 60W leading to potential landfall problems so this may not be a year where you look out towards Africa but a close to home for trouble like in 1985 where Gloria didnt get going until about 55W and most of the activity was near land(hence the 8 landfalls) so while there may be little to no activity in the MDR a similar type of instability anomaly to what we have now could spell trouble for landfalls especially if no El Nino shows up until later in the hurricane season

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

thats possible. thats why we also need to see if yet another east coast trof is likely. if so, that negates in close development and protects the entire coastline from texas to maine.

[cycloneye]

Oh boy,I am sure that this will not be liked by some as very high pressures dominate the Atlantic on the Febuary update of MSLP by ECMWF.

[ninel conde]

yikes, combine that with an incredibly stable atlantic, super dry air caused by the high pressures, huge wind shear form a possible el nino and the continued east coast trof and we may have 4/1/0. we may have already seen the end of the active cycle.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... t_THDV.gif

4 things to watch this season.

1-will it be another season without a cat2 or higher?
2-another season without a major?
3-9th year in a row of no major hitting the US
4-ACE even lower than last year?

right now id say odds are better than 50/50 all these happen.

[Ntxw]

I think an ACE below last year is unlikely, those are anomalies and takes perfect (poor) conditions to achieve. However the risk of below 80 (considered lower tier) is higher than most years.

[Ntxw]

Oh boy,I am sure that this will not be liked by some as very high pressures dominate the Atlantic on the Febuary update of MSLP by ECMWF.

Good thing is it is only Feb. Bad thing is even though euro got heat last year for showing higher pressures turned out well. We also have to remember it is a probability and not actual pressures. 70-100% is quite high chance, lets hope it tones it down some in the coming months.