WPAC: NURI - Post-Tropical

[ManilaTC]

Years of following storms in the west pacific... the 00z model output raises my eyebrow regarding the GFS/ECMWF tracks.

The Subtropical Ridge during this time of year is zonal in nature, thus forcing TC to move more of a Straight-run path... Climatologically speaking Of course there are exceptions lol

[ManilaTC]

TPPN10 PGTW 300912

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (W OF GUAM)

B. 30/0832Z

C. 13.0N

D. 139.3E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .25 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. PT AGREES. DBO DT.

NOTE: BEGINNING 3 NOVEMBER 2014, JTWC WILL BE ENCODING AND
TRANSMITTING ALL FIXES TO THE NEAREST HUNDREDTH DECIMAL PLACE.
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS, PLEASE CONTACT JTWC AT SATOPS.JTWC
(AT)NAVY.MIL.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
30/0455Z 13.1N 139.8E MMHS
30/0711Z 13.0N 139.3E SSMS


UEHARA

[ManilaTC]

Windsat on its 0820z pass seeing numerous 30-55 kt wind barbs.
Tropical Storm?

Pinch me I Must be dreaming.

[dexterlabio]

True, the STR off North Asia at this time of year is zonal and typically strong, like it is right now...but a very deep trough could change that, which seems to be the reason of the sudden change in forecast track..the models suddenly pick up a strong trough passing to the north as well...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I'd be surprised if this isn't yet upgraded to a tropical depression. There is a well-defined LLC.

[euro6208]

Potential recurve...

[euro6208]

another one for okinawa as 12z gfs has nuri passing very near the island...

[dhoeze]

any new updates on possible tracks gurus?

[dexterlabio]

Won't be surprised if it misses all of Japan. A passing trough would protect the islands, keeping the system away from land and out to sea... That'd be a more preferable scenario because this looks like will be a strong storm.





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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.

[dexterlabio]

18z GFS shows that scenario...it safely recurves out to sea...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WTPN31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 12.7N 137.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 137.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 13.0N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.7N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 14.5N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.7N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.6N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.7N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.7N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 136.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 20W (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 199 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND 010300Z.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Nuri is coming..


TD
Issued at 01:00 UTC, 31 October 2014

<Analyses at 31/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N12°20'(12.3°)
E137°10'(137.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 31/12 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N12°30'(12.5°)
E135°05'(135.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
Radius of probability circle 150km(80NM)

<Forecast for 01/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°40'(12.7°)
E133°00'(133.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[euro6208]

forecast to reach 105 knots category 3 in it's first warning...impressive...

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 20W (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 199 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE AS FORMATIVE BANDS FEEDING IN FROM THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLANKS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS CURRENTLY OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST CLOUD FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 302308Z 37V SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 04
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA WITH LOW (05-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST THAT IS
PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW- TO
MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN ON THIS SYSTEM
AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 20W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TURNING POLEWARD AS THE
STEERING STR RECEDES IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA (GREATER THAN 28 CELSIUS) WILL PROMOTE A HIGHER-THAN
NORMAL INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 20W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ROUND THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE STEERING STR AND DRIFT INTO A COL AREA AS A SECONDARY STR
TO THE WEST BUILDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A POSSIBLE QUASI-STATIONARY
STATE. AFTER TAU 96, THE PRIMARY STR IS EXPECTED TO RE-BUILD AND
NUDGE THE CYCLONE BACK ON A POLEWARD TRACK. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR DURING THIS STAGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU
72, LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THAT PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTERWARDS, THERE
IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS, LENDING LOW
CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 OCT 2014 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 12:48:46 N Lon : 136:43:49 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.3 /1007.2mb/ 33.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.3 2.6 2.8

Center Temp : -75.3C Cloud Region Temp : -67.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 17.8 degrees

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

awesome outflow...

[euro6208]

06Z BT remains a depression...

20W TWENTY 141031 0600 12.6N 136.4E WPAC 30 1000

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Getting better organised but I'm not sold on the TY intensity forecast.

Why? Even the models are getting consistent on this being a typhoon. Conditions are favorable, and the CDO is small which helps the storm consolidate faster.

[euro6208]

on a second thought, this looks like a solid tropical storm already...dvorak remains unchanged from 2.0 but adt is steadily increasing now at 2.7 or 39 knots and raw up to 3.6! maybe jma upgrades this first but we'll see...

it is freaking huge!