ATL: HENRI - Remnants - Discussion

[Hammy]

Is it me or does this seem to be organizing fairly quickly at the moment? The wind pattern based on low cloud movement looks a bit more circular and the center seems closer to the convection than yesterday or even earlier today.

[wxman57]

I see nothing organizing quickly. ASCAT indicate a broad, weak circulation (15-20 kts). Circulation is displaced well west of the convection, indicating moderate westerly wind shear.

[emeraldislenc]

Thanks for your great thoughts!

[Hammy]

Low cloud motion has sped up slightly from earlier. Convection has also consolidated somewhat from earlier, and I'm going to go out on a limb and say the next ASCAT pass will find the circulation somewhere close to the X.

[galaxy401]

Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure centered
about 225 miles east-southeast of Bermuda has become better
defined, and that the associated shower activity has become more
concentrated. Upper-level winds have also become more conducive for
development, and there is some potential for a subtropical or
tropical cyclone to form during the next couple of days. The low is
expected to remain nearly stationary tonight, and then move
northward at 5 to 10 mph on Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday or
Saturday, the system should be absorbed by a large extratropical
cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Brent]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1050 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special tropical weather outlook to update the discussion of the
low pressure area east-southeast of Bermuda.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Grace, located about 1050 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles.

Updated: Recent satellite wind data indicate that the low pressure
area centered about 225 miles east-southeast of Bermuda has
developed a well-defined circulation with winds to near gale force
northeast of the center. If any further increase in organization
occurs, advisories on a subtropical or tropical cyclone could be
initiated Wednesday morning. The low is expected to remain nearly
stationary for the remainder of tonight, and then move northward at
5 to 10 mph on Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday or Saturday, the
system should be absorbed by a large extratropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

[FlaStormFanatic]

Looks to me like Henri is forming. For a slow season, 8 named storms (potentially ) is impressive

[JtSmarts]

My prediction of 9/2/1/ may be in trouble soon, although my gut told me this would be more like 2002 in terms of numbers. I think we have a great chance of seeing 10+ storms.

[Hammy]

Not surprised, it's been getting better organized all day. LLC seems to be very incrementally getting closer to the convection as well.

[Alyono]

looks very close to becoming a tropical storm. Probably will happen tomorrow

[TheStormExpert]

My prediction of 8/3/1 very well could be in trouble IF this and the rumored Gulf of Mexico development pans out.

[TimeZone]

Wow she really has wrapped up nicely today. Impressive little system.

[FlaStormFanatic]

My predictions before the season were 9-5-2. The 5 & 2 won't make it probably Lol.

[Hurricaneman]

I honestly think this will be TS Henri by 11AM by looking at it currently even though its sheared

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I wouldn't be surprised to see this classified by daybreak.

[MGC]

Just upgraded to TD8.......MGC

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015
1230 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015

A recent ASCAT-B overpass indicates that the low pressure area
east-southeast of Bermuda has developed a well-defined circulation
with winds of at least 30 kt in the northeastern quadrant. In
addition, a strong cluster of convection has been persisting in the
eastern quadrant. Based on these developments, advisories are
being initiated on Tropical Depression Eight. It should be noted
that the system has a large radius of maximum winds more
characteristic of a subtropical cyclone. However, data from the
FSU phase space analysis and the strong convection suggest the
system is more tropical than subtropical.

The cyclone is currently nearly stationary. A northward motion
should begin on Wednesday as a deep layer trough moves into the
eastern United States and weakens the subtropical ridge. The
cyclone is expected to enter the westerlies and turn toward the
northeast after 48 hours, with this motion continuing until
dissipation. The forecast track lies in the center of the track
guidance envelope in good agreement with the various consensus
models.

An upper-level trough just west of the cyclone is currently
providing upper-level difluence, and this is likely enhancing the
convection. The dynamical models forecast the cyclone to become
embedded in about 15 kt of southerly vertical wind shear on the
east side of the trough. While there is dry air entraining into
the cyclone, the environment should allow for some slow
strengthening through 72 hours while the system remains over warm
water. Thus, the intensity forecast calls for strengthening in best
agreement with a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models. After 72
hours, the cyclone is expected to merge with a frontal system and
lose its identity by 120 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0430Z 30.8N 61.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 30.8N 61.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 31.6N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 33.4N 61.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 36.0N 62.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 43.0N 60.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 48.0N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[EquusStorm]

Pretty impressive. That happened rather fast, especially considering they weren't really saying much about it until yesterday. I'd love to see it briefly hit hurricane strength just to boost the numbers for the year, though that seems unlikely; but even without that, we're doing pretty decent considering the hostile conditions present throughout the basin this El Nino year. Eight systems before the climatological peak day(s) of hurricane season isn't bad.

Still more interesting than 2013, at least.

[wxman57]

Strong wind shear is separating the convection quite a ways from the limited convection.

[Hammy]

I'm betting this stays a depression at this point, it doesn't look any better than yesterday and seems to have remained steady all afternoon.