Tropical wave emerging West Africa (Is Invest 90L)

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Euro no longer seems to be developing this at the 96 hour point, it only has a very broad 1010 mb low, as opposed to 1006 last run and 1004 the previous. Development looking less likely, and probably why NHC isn't mentioning the system.

Development literally on the coast was never going to verify. The wave's overall development chances appear to be increasing, however, with support from the GFS, GEFS, and ECMWF.

[Alyono]

Euro no longer seems to be developing this at the 96 hour point, it only has a very broad 1010 mb low, as opposed to 1006 last run and 1004 the previous. Development looking less likely, and probably why NHC isn't mentioning the system.

6z mu also dropped it

[tarheelprogrammer]

Headed for Florida and G.O.M.

Edit: actually stalls off east coast of Florida.

[TheStormExpert]

Headed for Florida and G.O.M.

Edit: actually stalls off east coast of Florida.

Right offshore where I live in Florida, luckily it's 384hrs. out.

[AutoPenalti]

Headed for Florida and G.O.M.

Edit: actually stalls off east coast of Florida.

Let me guess, is that CMC?

[stormlover2013]

GFS long ways to go, should be fun to watch

[TheStormExpert]

Here is the end of the 12z GFS run for what it's worth. Starts really ramping up in between Palm Beach County and Grand Bahama Island @ 384hrs, take with a grain of salt.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of Africa on
Saturday. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat
conducive for slow development through early next week while the
system moves generally westward and passes near the Cabo Verde
Islands over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[tarheelprogrammer]

Headed for Florida and G.O.M.

Edit: actually stalls off east coast of Florida.

Let me guess, is that CMC?

GFS

Edit: Highly unlikely as the ensembles are showing OTS. Still needs to be watched for development and will have more of a threat to land than TD6 unless TD6 heads for Bermuda.

[gatorcane]

the Cape Verde Wave train has begun....plenty of time to watch how this evolves.

[abajan]

[Hurricaneman]

I noticed on the Euro this feature is going NW into the ridge which seems weird, I would expect this to go well west of where the Euro has it probably similar to the GFS

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[USTropics]

I noticed on the Euro this feature is going NW into the ridge which seems weird, I would expect this to go well west of where the Euro has it probably similar to the GFS

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

It seems the early model guidance has been over aggressive on development/northward movement on AEWs as they enter the E Atlantic (both the GFS and the ECMWF included). We saw it with Fiona and a few other AEWs this year. Not 100% sure why, but once model initialization had an actual center we've seen adjustments westward.

[xcool22]

every run will change between now and next weekend

[Kazmit]

Headed for Florida and G.O.M.

Edit: actually stalls off east coast of Florida.

Let me guess, is that CMC?

GFS

Edit: Highly unlikely as the ensembles are showing OTS. Still needs to be watched for development and will have more of a threat to land than TD6 unless TD6 heads for Bermuda.

If the Bermuda-Azores high rebuilds, it could send this into the Caribbean, or maybe north of the lessers and into the Bahamas.

[SouthFLTropics]

Here is the end of the 12z GFS run for what it's worth. Starts really ramping up in between Palm Beach County and Grand Bahama Island @ 384hrs, take with a grain of salt.

Well the good news here is that normally when you're the target at 384 hours then it most likely won't verify. Being in the bullseye is right where I like to be at that timeframe.

SFT

[TheStormExpert]

Let me guess, is that CMC?

GFS

Edit: Highly unlikely as the ensembles are showing OTS. Still needs to be watched for development and will have more of a threat to land than TD6 unless TD6 heads for Bermuda.

If the Bermuda-Azores high rebuilds, it could send this into the Caribbean, or maybe north of the lessers and into the Bahamas.

The Bermuda High looks to be finally breaking down after being around all summer long.

[tarheelprogrammer]

18Z GFS is taking this system OTS it appears. However, it gets very close to the Carolina coastline. This wave is one that needs to be watched. That is two runs in a row that show this system getting close to the Southeast coastline.

[Hurricaneman]

This may be a threat to the US east coast or Bermuda depending on troughs and ridges so one should stay vigilant and watch for trends

The18zGFS sends this between Bermuda and North Carolina late in its run and most definitely will change so we won't know where it will go and in terms of development it seems that this will probably wait until 60W before anything happens and that is kind of worrying as it would follow the 1000 to 850 steering which would drive this farther west

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of Africa on
Saturday. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat
conducive for slow development through early next week while the
system moves generally westward and passes near the Cabo Verde
Islands over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent