ATL: MARIA - Models

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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#21 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:35 pm

More salt in the wound for the NE Leewards as shown by 12Z ECMWF. Yet another system enters Hebert box but fortunately not nearly as strong as IRMA:

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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#22 Postby bqknight » Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:09 pm

Euro dissipates it about 9 days in...mostly due to it being a weaker storm and it runs into the islands. Doubt it would if it misses them.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#23 Postby Nimbus » Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:46 pm

gatorcane wrote:More salt in the wound for the NE Leewards as shown by 12Z ECMWF. Yet another system enters Hebert box but fortunately not nearly as strong as IRMA:

Image


I'm still on generator from Irma, please tell me this is just a fantasy storm and ther is no current wave associated.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#24 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:52 pm

Nimbus, there is a wave models develop with all global models showing some kind of development. Currently the NE Leewards would be the consensus looking at the mean of the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET tracks.

Here is the 12Z UKMET below. Beyond a week, as Jose moves out, we need to watch just how much ridging builds back in over the Western Atlantic to see just how far west this system might go.

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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#25 Postby boca » Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:25 pm

Looks like a big trough in the central US which would turn anything heading to the US because everything looks progressive
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#26 Postby RL3AO » Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:28 pm

Nimbus wrote:
gatorcane wrote:More salt in the wound for the NE Leewards as shown by 12Z ECMWF. Yet another system enters Hebert box but fortunately not nearly as strong as IRMA:

[img]https://s26.postimg.org/6zx0oqo3t/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_watl_7.png[/g]


I'm still on generator from Irma, please tell me this is just a fantasy storm and ther is no current wave associated.

Image

It's the western wave.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#27 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 14, 2017 4:49 pm

18Z GFS stronger again than previous run out through 66 hours so far.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#28 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:01 pm

18Z GFS has a hurricane into Lesser Antilles

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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#29 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:20 pm

Major Hurricane heading towards Hispaniola @ 162 hours.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#30 Postby hurricaneCW » Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:35 pm

Low rider with massive east coast ridging. Is it 2005 again?
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#31 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:36 pm

GFS makes me sad.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#32 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:38 pm

this run of the GFS is down right ghoulish
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#33 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:39 pm

Major in the Bahamas wow...
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#34 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:40 pm

Ridge over East coast of US:

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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#35 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:41 pm

gatorcane wrote:Ridge over East coast of US:

Image

It's a Florida impact isn't it?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#36 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:43 pm

Wow heading W strong ridge to its north 956mb.. :eek:
Last edited by SFLcane on Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#37 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:43 pm

SFLcane wrote:Wow heading W strong ridge to its north 922mb.. :eek:


Yikes turns W-WNW in Bahamas:

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#38 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:43 pm

This is just downright cruel GFS!
:froze:
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#39 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:46 pm

This would be the one-two knockout punch for SE Florida:

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TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Models

#40 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:47 pm

What the GFS wants to do to Florida.
:blowup:

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