ATL: JERRY - Models

[sma10]

The CONUS appears to me to be safe from this one, fortunately.

Larry you may very well be 100% correct. But, just based on the 12Z UK and 12Z Euro trend today, maybe you can report on what the EPS spits out this afternoon?

[Emmett_Brown]

12Z EURO runs 97L into a brick wall at 192 hrs - stops a OTS solution dead in it's tracks.

Yeah, interesting run. Seems to move Humberto out much faster, and allows a ridge to build back in, sending 97L further W before ultimately stalling it in fantasy range. Definitely lots of uncertainty long range, as usual.

[chris_fit]

12Z EPS

[chris_fit]

This was the 00Z EPS

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Massive spread today on the models, especially with the UKMET/HWRF/EPS. OTS is still most likely but I could see this coming a little closer to the islands than initially expected.

[sma10]

12Z EPS

https://i.imgur.com/uc5osBw.png

Overall, still a likely bet to go out to sea, with just the tiniest bit of uncertainty.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The CONUS appears to me to be safe from this one, fortunately.

Please don't jinx it.

[WxEp]

Significantly more long-term model support for 97L in the 12z EPS than the 0z. We'll have to see if that trend continues.

[LarryWx]

The CONUS appears to me to be safe from this one, fortunately.

Larry you may very well be 100% correct. But, just based on the 12Z UK and 12Z Euro trend today, maybe you can report on what the EPS spits out this afternoon?

Not this again. I’m exhausted. As has been posted, there are just a few outliers to the left that threaten the CONUS. Based on what the EPS has shown at times for Humberto (25-30% of members with CONUS threats on 3 runs), this is nothing. In addition, all non-UKMET major operational dynamic models recurve it east of the CONUS. The UKMET is very much subject to a left bias. Remember with Humberto that ALL of the major operationals threatened the US early for a good number of runs.Furthermore, climo by this late in the season becomes our friend from that position. So, I’m sticking to my “appears to me to be safe” feeling for at least the time being. That doesn’t mean I’ll keep feeling this way and that I won’t watch, of course! But I’m honestly not worried about this one right now.

Edit: I just noticed that even the 12Z UKMET, which is near PR day 6, turns it sharply north day 7.

[AtlanticWind]

The CONUS appears to me to be safe from this one, fortunately.

Larry you may very well be 100% correct. But, just based on the 12Z UK and 12Z Euro trend today, maybe you can report on what the EPS spits out this afternoon?

Not this again. I’m exhausted. As has been posted, there are just a few outliers to the left that threaten the CONUS. Based on what the EPS has shown at times for Humberto (25-30% of members with CONUS threats on 3 runs), this is nothing. In addition, all non-UKMET major operational dynamic models recurve it east of the CONUS. The UKMET is very much subject to a left bias. Furthermore, climo by this late in the season becomes our friend from that position. So, I’m sticking to my “appears to me to be safe” feeling for at least the time being. That doesn’t mean I’ll keep feeling this way and that I won’t watch, of course! But I’m honestly not worried about this one right now.

I have actually been getting slightly more concerned with this system in the last 48 hours.
Still most likely to recurve I think , but the models have been trending more west it seems.
Also the latest Euro shows a zonal flow late in the forecast period.

[Dean4Storms]

Those 12z EPS members taking 97L in toward the Bahamas is basically the pattern we've seen so far this Sept steering wise with the Atlantic Ridge. If Humberto is OTS then all bets are off in my opinion if there is no weakness.

[LarryWx]

Those 12z EPS members taking 97L in toward the Bahamas is basically the pattern we've seen so far this Sept steering wise with the Atlantic Ridge. If Humberto is OTS then all bets are off in my opinion if there is no weakness.

I wouldn’t bet on a CONUS hit unless the payoff ratio were pretty high. Keep in mind we have the advantage of it being later in Sept by then. Recurve chances only rise as we get later in the month. The chances of another big and multi day stable eastern US ridge like the kind that almost stopped Humberto and sent him back is not high. No operational threatens the CONUS with this. Until if and when the consensus of the better ones do (and I don’t mean just the UKMET as a left outlier), I’m not going to be worried. If I worried about every single tropical disturbance, I’d worry myself to death.

[SFLcane]

Those 12z EPS members taking 97L in toward the Bahamas is basically the pattern we've seen so far this Sept steering wise with the Atlantic Ridge. If Humberto is OTS then all bets are off in my opinion if there is no weakness.

Fortunately only 1-2 members show the possibility of 97L near FL.

[LarryWx]

Those 12z EPS members taking 97L in toward the Bahamas is basically the pattern we've seen so far this Sept steering wise with the Atlantic Ridge. If Humberto is OTS then all bets are off in my opinion if there is no weakness.

Fortunately only 1-2 members show the possibility of 97L near FL.

Good post. I think it is important to learn from the most recent storm! Having some ensemble members that threaten when the operationals don’t is not the time to worry. There are bound to be some members do that when you have 51 of them! Also, no ensemble member is as good as the operational. No need to worry AT THIS TIME and hopefully ever.

Edit: I think it is important for folks to keep in mind that based on history that just because there is a TC just north of PR with a strong eastern US/ W Atlantic ridge then in place that it is going to remain strong/in place for the 3-6 or so days it takes to get to the CONUS from there. More often than not, they break down, especially this late in the season. There would usually need to be a reinforcing ridge to closely follow it and replenish it to make it a dangerous scenario. That idea is so often ignored.

Edit: Folks, also keep in mind that TCs “love” to turn north into the slightest weakness. These slight weaknesses usually will occur, especially this late. Strong ridges are usually not stable.

[Emmett_Brown]

Good points about ensembles. Also, I think models definitely perform better after TC formation occurs. Pro mets will tell me that you dont need a center for a model to perform... that it can forecast the formation of a center and subsequent track. But, quite frankly, models have been terrible at this recently. I am not going to guess where this will go until it actually forms. Then I think models will have a better idea.

Also, there has been persistent ridging in the E CONUS recently. However, the pattern has been very progressive, with frequent short wave troughs that are not being detected by models until about 90 hours out. So, while ridging has dominated, small troughs have easily recurved storms. I agree that 97L has a very low chance of making it all the way to the CONUS. CONUS threats for the remainder of the season will likely come from the W CAR and GOM. MDR storms certainly could threaten the Lesser and Greater Antilles however.

[ronjon]

Good points about ensembles. Also, I think models definitely perform better after TC formation occurs. Pro mets will tell me that you dont need a center for a model to perform... that it can forecast the formation of a center and subsequent track. But, quite frankly, models have been terrible at this recently. I am not going to guess where this will go until it actually forms. Then I think models will have a better idea.

Also, there has been persistent ridging in the E CONUS recently. However, the pattern has been very progressive, with frequent short wave troughs that are not being detected by models until about 90 hours out. So, while ridging has dominated, small troughs have easily recurved storms. I agree that 97L has a very low chance of making it all the way to the CONUS. CONUS threats for the remainder of the season will likely come from the W CAR and GOM. MDR storms certainly could threaten the Lesser and Greater Antilles however.

This overall negative NAO pattern of consistent east coast troughing has saved the eastern US from major hurricane impacts from the MDR. This pattern has been pretty persistent post-2000 with the exception of a few majors like Frances, Jeanne, Ike, and Irma. I think we in Florida will have to keep our fingers crossed with the western caribbean this year. This troughing can pull whatever develops down there across Florida. We certainly do not want another Wilma or Michael this year.

[Blown Away]

Except for very few exceptions, after Sept 20th start looking in the Central/Western Caribbean or GOM for any CONUS threats...

[LarryWx]

Except for very few exceptions, after Sept 20th start looking in the Central/Western Caribbean or GOM for any CONUS threats...

Based on the model consensus, position, and lateness in Sept, if someone were to offer me winnings of, say, $10, for a $50 bet against a CONUS hit or near miss, I'd lay the $50 in a heartbeat as that would seem to be a pretty easy $10 to win. Would anyone else?

[drezee]

18z Euro slightly SW @ 90 hours and heading W

[cycloneye]

18z Euro slightly SW @ 90 hours and heading W

Do you have a animation?