SW Caribbean Watch

[psyclone]

Here's to hoping we've entered the "moat" of hurricane season that separates early season slopsiders from the "real" season that begins in August.

[Aric Dunn]

big burst of convection.. multiple repeated hot towers -92c tops.. pretty hefty
.

[GCANE]

Happpens a lot when AEW's crash into the Nic shore creating LL convergence.
Anticyclone over Venezuela creating UL divergence over this.
Combination is setting off the heavy convection.
Very likely will wash out.

Early in the week, models were having the anticylone directly over this and spinning it up.
Looks like they missed the mark.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks interesting down there early this morning.

[Steve H.]

Some interesting stuff out there this morning. SW Caribbean convection, an area near the Bahamas that keeps flaring up, and a pretty juiced up itcz for this early in the season. Nothing imminent, but interesting none the less. Shear is still predominant near the lesser Antilles, but that will lift out eventually. Things to come.

[northjaxpro]

Some interesting stuff out there this morning. SW Caribbean convection, an area near the Bahamas that keeps flaring up, and a pretty juiced up itcz for this early in the season. Nothing imminent, but interesting none the less. Shear is still predominant near the lesser Antilles, but that will lift out eventually. Things to come.

00Z Canadian last night was hinting at a possible Low Pressure development off the Southeast U.S. Atlantic Coast region starting tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

morning visible. showing the wave axis has shifted NNW now around eastern honduras heading towards the NW carrib. have to keep watching it. a lot of energy with this.

[NDG]

Circulation with it is not at the surface, nothing but easterly winds underneath it.

[Aric Dunn]

Circulation with it is not at the surface, nothing but easterly winds underneath it.

There was a surface reflection yesterday that has likely moved over eastern Honduras an NE Nicaragua. everything in heading towards the NW carrib.

definitely needs to be watched.

[SFLcane]

morning visible. showing the wave axis has shifted NNW now around eastern honduras heading towards the NW carrib. have to keep watching it. a lot of energy with this.

Nah. Main vort is going inland right now.

[Aric Dunn]

morning visible. showing the wave axis has shifted NNW now around eastern honduras heading towards the NW carrib. have to keep watching it. a lot of energy with this.

Nah. Main vort is going inland right now.

I said wave axis.. you can see it quite clearly SE flow to the east of Honduras and NE to ene flow to the north of Honduras. the vort from yesterday likely ( as mentioned a minute ago) moved over northern Nicaragua and Honduras. But still moving to the NW

[NDG]

Circulation with it is not at the surface, nothing but easterly winds underneath it.

There was a surface reflection yesterday that has likely moved over eastern Honduras an NE Nicaragua. everything in heading towards the NW carrib.

definitely needs to be watched.

But the UL conditions in the NW Caribbean has a very high shear, not changing any time soon because of the ULL dropping south the SE US.

[Aric Dunn]

Circulation with it is not at the surface, nothing but easterly winds underneath it.

There was a surface reflection yesterday that has likely moved over eastern Honduras an NE Nicaragua. everything in heading towards the NW carrib.

definitely needs to be watched.

But the UL conditions in the NW Caribbean has a very high shear, not changing any time soon because of the ULL dropping south the SE US.

high divergent shear has stopped how many recent storms from forming ?? lol

[abk_0710]

Are any of the models picking up on this?

If this system does form, where would it mostly like go?

[northjaxpro]

Are any of the models picking up on this?

If this system does form, where would it mostly like go?

None of the reliable models are picking up on any development that I can see in the Caribbean, and for good reason. Southwesterly wind shear 25-30 KT are raging across the Caribbean and into the SW Atlantic basin across the Bahamas. I don't see any thing developing within the medium term period avoid these regions.

[Aric Dunn]

Are any of the models picking up on this?

If this system does form, where would it mostly like go?

There was decent support earlier in the week. but not in recent runs.

but it needs to be watched nonetheless.

[northjaxpro]

Are any of the models picking up on this?

If this system does form, where would it mostly like go?

There was decent support earlier in the week. but not in recent runs.

but it needs to be watched nonetheless.

Sure Aric, any vorticity in the tropics have to be watched carefully.
However, for the time being, upper level conditions down in the SW Caribbean are not conducive for development down there now and going up into at least the next 5 days.

[Aric Dunn]

Are any of the models picking up on this?

If this system does form, where would it mostly like go?

There was decent support earlier in the week. but not in recent runs.

but it needs to be watched nonetheless.

Sure Aric, any vorticity in the tropics have to be watched carefully.
However, for the time being, upper level conditions down in the SW Caribbean are not conducive for development down there now and going up into at least the next 5 days.

again.. high divergent shear can be the catalyst. people need to remember that just because there is shear does not mean something cant develop and fester for days..

[mrbagyo]

[northjaxpro]

There was decent support earlier in the week. but not in recent runs.

but it needs to be watched nonetheless.

Sure Aric, any vorticity in the tropics have to be watched carefully.
However, for the time being, upper level conditions down in the SW Caribbean are not conducive for development down there now and going up into at least the next 5 days.

again.. high divergent shear can be the catalyst. people need to remember that just because there is shear does not mean something cant develop and fester for days..

I am very aware of this Aric come on!. This is nothing new to me here.. I am just trying to get you to see that the odds.are right now, highly favors this system not developing due to hostile upper level conditions.
Plus, the main trough axis is expected to traverse inland into Central America in all likelihood within the next 24 hours or so.