ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Pros,

1. The above says 10.7N and 34.0W
2. NHC has the "X" with 30/70 formation change at about 27W

Please explain.

NHC was watching two areas SW of CV Islands and decided to go with the most western one.

Thanks.

But does the formation chance remain the same?
Or given the expected interaction/merging of the two areas they will adjust the chance sometime later?

The latter.

[Aric Dunn]

SO we have the EURO operational as the right outlier.

only model that weakens the ridge over the western atlantic to curve east of florida with a digging trough.

ICON, UKMET, CMC, GFS, and the like. all split the trough over the SE US and have building ridging which holds allowing 98L to reach western trough central gulf. before it round the ridge with no trough.

luckily we are in flag flapping mode past 3 days.. so we can just have fun with the models.


all in all though ... the models finally kick out the east trough.. and thats all that needs to be said for a few days.

[Nimbus]

So maybe Josephine remnants continue south and join with 97L and the whole mess moistens the environment for 98L which would be a weaker Caribbean runner given the slightly early season conditions?

[ScottNAtlanta]

98L INVEST 200817 1800 10.7N 34.0W ATL 25

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121167

Pros,

1. The above says 10.7N and 34.0W
2. NHC has the "X" with 30/70 formation change at about 27W

Please explain.

NHC was watching two areas SW of CV Islands and decided to go with the most western one.

In the last discussion the NHC stated that they thought the systems would combine to form a long broad circulation. That looks less likely to me now.

[SouthDadeFish]

Considering this time of day is supposed to be diurnal minimum, the recent convective trends suggest this disturbance may not be all that far away from becoming a TC. Let's see if convection holds overnight. This is definitely a storm everyone should be keeping an eye on.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Geeze this may be a TD tonight if trends continue. So much for this lull we were supposed to have.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1295450432228253699

[SFLcane]

That upper pattern in the Bahamas reminds me too much of Dorian.

[SFLcane]

Anytime you see a TC get under a ridge heading west it's hard not to think of Andrew.

[TheStormExpert]

So basically this is going to travel all the way across the Atlantic in a weeks time? Wouldn’t this need to slow down in order to close off or maintain a circulation? Sounds a lot like pre-Isaias.

[Kingarabian]

Anytime you see a TC get under a ridge heading west it's hard not to think of Andrew.

That's Joe Bastardi's go to line in his reasoning for TC strength. "TC under a ridge". I think it does apply here.

[drezee]

Anytime you see a TC get under a ridge heading west it's hard not to think of Andrew.

Optimizes convergence and gradient...lets hope the 500mb is off.

[DestinHurricane]

Some good analogs: Floyd 1999, Frances 2005, Andrew 1992, David 1979, Donna 1960. Looks like the setup is similar to these storms that all occurred in august or early September.

[wxman57]

Anytime you see a TC get under a ridge heading west it's hard not to think of Andrew.

That's Joe Bastardi's go to line in his reasoning for TC strength. "TC under a ridge". I think it does apply here.

"Ridge over troubled water"

[SFLcane]

going with 50-80 at 8pm.

[johngaltfla]

Yah. Uh, no. My concern is that our friend the Bermuda High intensifies towards the end of the 5 day forecast period. No indications yet, but we do not need a GoM storm now. One monster every 20 years is plenty, thank you very much.

[cycloneye]

Based on satelite I will go with 50/80 at 8 PM TWO.

[jaxfladude]

So this is the true start of a parade of systems? Scary to think what is in store with this system and future ones plus 97L potentially..

[Blown Away]

[galaxy401]

Just making my mark here in case this thread goes over several hundred pages! Long trackers like these make us spend up to two weeks watching it.

This wave looks very vigorous already. We keep saying that the next wave is going to open the floodgates but 98L has a good chance at actually doing it.