Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (Is Invest 96L)

[Hurricane Mike]

I'm most interested in this wave right now. I mention it in tonight's video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_iZSajqk00

[LarryWx]

Unlike the 12Z ICON, which appeared to be setting up for a recurve way out there based on a big upper low off the CONUS, the 0Z ICON has a very different H5 setup to its NW late in the run.

[Hurricane Mike]

Unlike the 12Z ICON, which appeared to be setting up for a recurve way out there based on a big upper low off the CONUS, the 0Z ICON has a very different H5 setup to its NW late in the run.

If we wind up with four or five Cape Verde systems, one of them might break through eventually.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z UKMET is the 6th in a row with genesis although it develops quite a bit later than the other runs: phantom alert or just delayed development, who knows?

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.7N 43.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.09.2022 132 15.7N 43.0W 1011 25
0000UTC 13.09.2022 144 17.7N 45.7W 1011 29

[Teban54]

Almost all global models now agree on this wave moving W/WSW in the central to western MDR. The latest to join the party is 0z CMC, which sends it west into USVI/PR as a TD/TS.

0z GFS ends up in the same area and then crashes it into Hispaniola. Less organized than 0z CMC, but more organized than past GFS runs.

0z Euro isn't out yet, but the past Euro runs have been the strongest among the global models, albeit still only as a TS. Of course, intensity can change this far out, and so does track.

[Teban54]

Remarkable agreement on this wave's location with 12z Euro, 0z CMC and 0z GFS 240 hours out, though it might be a coincidence:



Also, at the two EPAC storms on the GFS.

Update: LOL, 0z Euro drops development. But the track remains the same.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS is on board with development.

[chris_fit]

06z GFS is on board with development.

Indeed - Also recurves north of islands at 60W

Most 00Z EPS that due develop it also recurve.

[cycloneye]

2. African Coast:
A tropical wave currently located near the west African coast is
forecast to emerge offshore into the eastern Atlantic over the next
day or so. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
gradual development thereafter as the system moves
west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[AutoPenalti]

So I guess the WSW dip is gone?

[Category5Kaiju]

So I guess the WSW dip is gone?

With these extremely long track systems in their stages of birth, it's honestly very hard to predict exactly if it'll be a solid recurve, or a recurve but very close to land, or a land threat. We saw this with storms like Irma and Florence, where OTS solutions were quite normal and expected...until they were not. Unless it's a storm like Lorenzo or Helene 2018 that just immediately recurves near the Cape Verde islands, only time will really tell with what kind of storm we end up with.

[aspen]

So I guess the WSW dip is gone?

Technically, there is a little WSW dip this run. It just isn’t enough to get it to the islands and the storm ends up as a nice, high-ACE fish.

This is quite the abnormally aggressive GFS run for 2022. It shows the wave becoming a hurricane in just under 5 days while still east of 40W. If that were to happen, then future Fiona or Gaston would have some very high ACE potential.

[SFLcane]

Nothing develops that quick in 2022 gfs is bluff.

[CourierPR]

06z GFS is on board with development.

Indeed - Also recurves north of islands at 60W

Most 00Z EPS that due develop it also recurve.

Hurricane Mike has a video showing a model that brings it into the Bahamas and close to Florida.

[SFLcane]

[cycloneye]

[LarryWx]

This is now moving just offshore and is centered way down near 7.5N, 13W.

[kevin]

06z GFS has a big OTS MDR storm which could accumulate a lot of ACE, I'm talking 30 units or possibly even more.

[SFLcane]

Good luck trying to time that trof dropping down.

[chris_fit]

https://i.imgur.com/9AiA6O5.gif

That's quite a bit of energy there! Let's see if it'll consolidate.