ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

IMHO, I think this is actually going to win the race for "Hermine" and is probably already a TD. No threat to land, so no rush to classify.

EDIT: Now officially a TD.

Code: Select all

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED...
2:00 PM CVT Fri Sep 23
Location: 17.9°N 19.8°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

[FireRat]

IMHO, I think this is actually going to win the race for "Hermine" and is probably already a TD. No threat to land, so no rush to classify.

EDIT: Now officially a TD.

Code: Select all

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED...
2:00 PM CVT Fri Sep 23
Location: 17.9°N 19.8°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

The Race for Hermine heats up!

[Iceresistance]

That explains why this is a TD

Dropsonde data from a DC-8 aircraft
with the NASA field program Convective Processes EXperiment-Cabo
Verde (CPEX-CV) has been quite useful in determining the central
pressure and surface circulation definition of the low, with the
central pressure of 1003 mb based on the dropsondes. The initial
wind speed is set to 30 kt, perhaps conservatively since the eastern
side of the circulation has not been sampled by scatterometer or
aircraft data.

[tolakram]

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
200 PM CVT Fri Sep 23 2022

Satellite images indicate that the strong tropical wave that NHC has
been tracking for several days over western Africa has developed a
well-defined surface center over the far eastern Atlantic with
organized bands of convection. Dropsonde data from a DC-8 aircraft
with the NASA field program Convective Processes EXperiment-Cabo
Verde (CPEX-CV) has been quite useful in determining the central
pressure and surface circulation definition of the low, with the
central pressure of 1003 mb based on the dropsondes. The initial
wind speed is set to 30 kt, perhaps conservatively since the eastern
side of the circulation has not been sampled by scatterometer or
aircraft data.

The system is moving north-northwestward at about 10 kt. A large
break in the eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge should cause this
system to move generally northward ahead of a mid-level trough
before turning westward and accelerating as a shallow system beneath
the low-level ridge. The forecast is close to the model consensus,
with heavier weight being placed on the global models than the
regional hurricane track models.

The depression has about a day over warm water in light to moderate
shear before all the models blast the system with strong upper-
level southwesterly winds. Most of the guidance shows this system
becoming a tropical storm before weakening significantly by late
this weekend and dissipating early next week. The official wind
speed prediction is near the NOAA corrected-consensus guidance HCCA.

Note that 2 to 4 inches of rain is possible over the Canary Islands
through this weekend due to a combination of the mid-level trough
and moisture from this system, which is a bit unusual for that area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 17.9N 19.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 19.2N 20.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 21.0N 21.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 22.3N 21.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 23.2N 21.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 23.9N 21.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1200Z 24.3N 21.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1200Z 26.0N 26.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Hurricane2022]

Hermine is up

[Iceresistance]

Hermine is up

Confirmed? Or a prediction?

[Kazmit]

Hopefully this becomes Hermine so TD 9 can get the dreaded I name.

[Hurricane2022]

Hermine is up

Confirmed? Or a prediction?

Prediction

[Cyclenall]

I've never seen a system forecast to become ex-tropical at 24N in the month of September.

[Sciencerocks]

[TallyTracker]

This storm is going to act more like an East Pacific storm due to the fact that it’s not going to go extratropical. It’s going to move over cooler waters, lose convection, and become a remnant low. Not super common in the Atlantic.

[weeniepatrol]

I've never seen a system forecast to become ex-tropical at 24N in the month of September.

Canary Current moment

[AnnularCane]

IMHO, I think this is actually going to win the race for "Hermine" and is probably already a TD. No threat to land, so no rush to classify.

EDIT: Now officially a TD.

Code: Select all

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED...
2:00 PM CVT Fri Sep 23
Location: 17.9°N 19.8°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

The Race for Hermine heats up!

I keep thinking of the 2007 Belmont Stakes.

[Iceresistance]

First ADT at 30 knots

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 SEP 2022 Time : 154500 UTC
Lat : 18:00:56 N Lon : 19:51:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.0 / 1006mb / 30kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.0 2.0 2.0

Center Temp : -32.2C Cloud Region Temp : -50.9C

[CrazyC83]

Will this steal the name "Hermine"? I hope not, since "I" names are becoming hard to come by!

[ouragans]

Will this steal the name "Hermine"? I hope not, since "I" names are becoming hard to come by!

I've that bad feeling that it will steal the H from TD9

[cycloneye]

Hello Hermine.

AL, 10, 2022092318, , BEST, 0, 182N, 203W, 35, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HERMINE,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal102022.dat

[CrazyC83]

Of course it had to steal the name!

[Iceresistance]

Of course it had to steal the name!

I knew it was coming when it was first designated. How did I get it right!?

[ElectricStorm]

Yep not surprised they're upgrading it, definitely looking like a TS