Non-tropical low off the Iberian coast

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WalterWhite
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Re: Non-tropical low off the Iberian coast

#21 Postby WalterWhite » Sat Sep 16, 2023 9:56 am

12Z surface analysis indicates that the low has moved to 42 N 13 W and has deepened to 998 mb. The low is further detaching itself from the frontal boundary.

Image

As of now, my best track estimate of this system would be:

2023/09/13 12Z: 46 N 27 W 1016 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/13 18Z: 46 N 26 W 1016 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 00Z: 47 N 24 W 1014 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 06Z: 47 N 23 W 1013 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 12Z: 46 N 21 W 1014 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 18Z: 46 N 19 W 1010 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 00Z: 45 N 17 W 1009 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 06Z: 45 N 15 W 1006 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 12Z: 44 N 14 W 1006 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 18Z: 44 N 13 W 1004 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 00Z: 43 N 12 W 1002 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 06Z: 42 N 12 W 0999 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 12Z: 42 N 13 W 0998 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
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Re: Non-tropical low off the Iberian coast

#22 Postby WalterWhite » Sat Sep 16, 2023 5:36 pm

The low has moved to 42 N 12 W and has deepened to 995 mb.

Image

As of now, my best track estimate of this system would be:

2023/09/13 12Z: 46 N 27 W 1016 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/13 18Z: 46 N 26 W 1016 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 00Z: 47 N 24 W 1014 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 06Z: 47 N 23 W 1013 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 12Z: 46 N 21 W 1014 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 18Z: 46 N 19 W 1010 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 00Z: 45 N 17 W 1009 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 06Z: 45 N 15 W 1006 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 12Z: 44 N 14 W 1006 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 18Z: 44 N 13 W 1004 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 00Z: 43 N 12 W 1002 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 06Z: 42 N 12 W 0999 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 12Z: 42 N 13 W 0998 mb 040 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 18Z: 42 N 12 W 0995 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low

Based on new analysis, the 12Z maximum wind speed estimate has been increased to 40 kt. The 18Z maximum wind speed estimate is still 35 kt, however.
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Re: Non-tropical low off the Iberian coast

#23 Postby WalterWhite » Sat Sep 16, 2023 5:57 pm

The GFS indicates that the low will completely detach from its frontal boundary 12 hours from now, at which point the low might be classifiable as a subtropical cyclone.

Image

The GFS has this subtropical cyclone surviving until the 36th hour of the run, where the mountains of Iberia rip apart the cyclone into a remnant low.
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Re: Non-tropical low off the Iberian coast

#24 Postby WalterWhite » Sun Sep 17, 2023 6:51 am

Image

Image

As of now, my best track estimate of this system would be:

2023/09/13 12Z: 46 N 27 W 1016 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/13 18Z: 46 N 26 W 1016 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 00Z: 47 N 24 W 1014 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 06Z: 47 N 23 W 1013 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 12Z: 46 N 21 W 1014 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 18Z: 46 N 19 W 1010 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 00Z: 45 N 17 W 1009 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 06Z: 45 N 15 W 1006 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 12Z: 44 N 14 W 1006 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 18Z: 44 N 13 W 1004 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 00Z: 43 N 12 W 1002 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 06Z: 42 N 12 W 0999 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 12Z: 42 N 13 W 0998 mb 040 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 18Z: 42 N 12 W 0995 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/17 00Z: 42 N 12 W 0996 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/17 06Z: 42 N 11 W 0995 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
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Re: Non-tropical low off the Iberian coast

#25 Postby WalterWhite » Sun Sep 17, 2023 10:04 am

43 N 11 W

Image

2023/09/13 12Z: 46 N 27 W 1016 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/13 18Z: 46 N 26 W 1016 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 00Z: 47 N 24 W 1014 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 06Z: 47 N 23 W 1013 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 12Z: 46 N 21 W 1014 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 18Z: 46 N 19 W 1010 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 00Z: 45 N 17 W 1009 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 06Z: 45 N 15 W 1006 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 12Z: 44 N 14 W 1006 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 18Z: 44 N 13 W 1004 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 00Z: 43 N 12 W 1002 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 06Z: 42 N 12 W 0999 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 12Z: 42 N 13 W 0998 mb 040 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 18Z: 42 N 12 W 0995 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/17 00Z: 42 N 12 W 0996 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/17 06Z: 42 N 11 W 0995 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/17 12Z: 43 N 11 W 0998 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
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Re: Non-tropical low off the Iberian coast

#26 Postby WalterWhite » Sun Sep 17, 2023 5:37 pm

Image

2023/09/13 12Z: 46 N 27 W 1016 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/13 18Z: 46 N 26 W 1016 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 00Z: 47 N 24 W 1014 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 06Z: 47 N 23 W 1013 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 12Z: 46 N 21 W 1014 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 18Z: 46 N 19 W 1010 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 00Z: 45 N 17 W 1009 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 06Z: 45 N 15 W 1006 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 12Z: 44 N 14 W 1006 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 18Z: 44 N 13 W 1004 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 00Z: 43 N 12 W 1002 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 06Z: 42 N 12 W 0999 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 12Z: 42 N 13 W 0998 mb 040 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 18Z: 42 N 12 W 0995 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/17 00Z: 42 N 12 W 0996 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/17 06Z: 42 N 11 W 0995 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/17 12Z: 43 N 11 W 0998 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/17 18Z: 44 N 10 W 1001 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
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Re: Non-tropical low off the Iberian coast

#27 Postby WalterWhite » Sun Sep 17, 2023 5:37 pm

It appears as if the low has passed its chance for subtropical development.
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Re: Non-tropical low off the Iberian coast

#28 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 18, 2023 8:56 pm

 https://twitter.com/CIRA_CSU/status/1703811721213731126


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Re: Non-tropical low off the Iberian coast

#29 Postby WalterWhite » Sun Sep 24, 2023 12:15 pm

I believe an update to the best track is warranted. Based on the fact that the center of low pressure was not on any frontal boundaries from 2023/09/16 18Z onwards and the fact that the system had a warm core and was symmetric, the best track has the low updated from a non-tropical low to a subtropical low during this timeframe.

2023/09/13 12Z: 46 N 27 W 1016 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/13 18Z: 46 N 26 W 1016 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 00Z: 47 N 24 W 1014 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 06Z: 47 N 23 W 1013 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 12Z: 46 N 21 W 1014 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 18Z: 46 N 19 W 1010 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 00Z: 45 N 17 W 1009 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 06Z: 45 N 15 W 1006 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 12Z: 44 N 14 W 1006 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 18Z: 44 N 13 W 1004 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 00Z: 43 N 12 W 1002 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 06Z: 42 N 12 W 0999 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 12Z: 42 N 13 W 0998 mb 040 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 18Z: 42 N 12 W 0995 mb 035 kt: Subtropical low
2023/09/17 00Z: 42 N 12 W 0996 mb 035 kt: Subtropical low
2023/09/17 06Z: 42 N 11 W 0995 mb 035 kt: Subtropical low
2023/09/17 12Z: 43 N 11 W 0998 mb 035 kt: Subtropical low
2023/09/17 18Z: 44 N 10 W 1001 mb 030 kt: Subtropical low
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