ATL: SEAN - Remnants - Discussion

[Landy]

[abajan]

Best Track:

AL, 92, 2023100906, , BEST, 0, 82N, 249W, 25, 1010, DB

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

AL, 92, 2023100912, , BEST, 0, 80N, 267W, 25, 1010, DB

[abajan]

AL, 92, 2023100912, , BEST, 0, 80N, 267W, 25, 1010, DB

https://i.imgur.com/oq21EUt.png

The slightly south-of-west trend resumes.

[tolakram]

What are the odds this never gets a name? Models seem to be catching up to current conditions, which appear to be quite hostile. It looks quite good, but so low. Lots of spin.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=20028&y=9112&z=3&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=geocolor&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

This is probably about 12-18 hours max from becoming a tropical cyclone. It is clearly developing inflow to the southwest quad and is looking pretty good. This will likely become a tropical storm shortly afterwards.

[cycloneye]

2 PM:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A low-latitude tropical wave located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a
large area of showers and thunderstorms. This activity has become a
bit more concentrated this afternoon, and environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development of this system during
the next several days. A tropical depression is likely to form in
the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward or
northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[abajan]

Best Track:

AL, 92, 2023100918, , BEST, 0, 80N, 277W, 30, 1010, DB

The time stamp is 12z but the image includes the 18z plot.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks can be deceiving of course but it's starting to look like a TD now

[MarioProtVI]

What are the odds this never gets a name? Models seem to be catching up to current conditions, which appear to be quite hostile. It looks quite good, but so low. Lots of spin.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=20028&y=9112&z=3&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=geocolor&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

Shear looks to be low for the next 96 hours or so. Dry air shouldn’t be a problem until it gets much more north because if it’s low latitude near the ITCZ. As one said, it’s probably undergoing TCG, and it’s quite possible we could get a brief Hurricane Sean from it too.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a
large area of showers and thunderstorms. This activity has changed
little in organization since earlier today. However, environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in the next couple of days while the
system moves west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

AL, 92, 2023101000, , BEST, 0, 80N, 293W, 25, 1010, DB

[abajan]

The updated Best Track records for the last several hours shows the W to WNW to NW turn has finally begun:

AL, 92, 2023100912, , BEST, 0, 80N, 267W, 25, 1010, DB
AL, 92, 2023100918, , BEST, 0, 82N, 278W, 25, 1010, DB
AL, 92, 2023101000, , BEST, 0, 85N, 288W, 25, 1010, DB
AL, 92, 2023101006, , BEST, 0, 90N, 297W, 25, 1010, DB

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next couple of days while the system moves
west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

AL, 92, 2023101012, , BEST, 0, 96N, 294W, 25, 1009, DB

[wxman57]

Models are backing off on development now. Keeping the pressure above 1000 mb. If it does manage to become a depression, it will have a very short life.

[cycloneye]

2 PM:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. This activity has become a bit more
concentrated while also showing signs of organization, and
environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development. A tropical depression is likely to form during the next
couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.