ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

[ChrisH-UK]

THe strong winds aloft are shearing 96L a lot blowing any convection away, doesn't luck good for future.

Source - https://col.st/YbuSQ

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL96):
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently
investigating a broad area of low pressure located a couple of
hundred miles east of the central Bahamas. Early indications
from the plane and satellite data are that the system does not have
a well-defined surface circulation. Environmental conditions are
becoming less conducive for development, though a short-lived
tropical depression or storm could still form during the next day or
so while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward. By
Tuesday, however, strong upper-level winds and dry air should end
the chances of further development while it turns northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[abajan]

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL96):
Earlier today, an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
investigated a broad area of low pressure located a couple of
hundred miles east of the central Bahamas, finding that the system
did not possess a well-defined surface circulation, but was
producing winds around 40 mph on its northeastern side. Shower and
thunderstorm activity persists, but the system only has limited time
to develop into a short-lived tropical depression or storm over the
next day or so as it moves slowly west-northwestward. By Tuesday,
strong upper-level winds and dry air should end the chances for
further development as the system turns northward away from the
northwestern Bahamas. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Next!

[Dean_175]

It's a weak frontal low in a high shear environment. Not worth messing with it. Flying recon into this? Seriously?

Yeah at most it will be a tropical depression or very weak storm, if that. Weaker than the typical extratropical frontal lows that form nearly everyday. I wonder what recon would show for more impressive WP storms like Haiyan. Yet this will most likely remain just an invest.

[abajan]

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL96):
An area of low pressure with associated disorganized showers
and thunderstorms is located a couple of hundred miles east of the
northwestern Bahamas. This system is moving into an area of strong
upper-level winds and dry air, and the chances of it becoming a
short-lived tropical storm appear to be decreasing. The low is
expected to move slowly west-northwestward today and then turn
northward and northeastward on Tuesday and Wednesday. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Nimbus]

Tracking north of west now but its pretty blown out.

[abajan]

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL96):
An area of low pressure with associated disorganized showers is
located about 100 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas. This
system is moving into an area of strong upper-level winds and dry
air, and the chances of it becoming a short-lived tropical storm are
decreasing. The low is expected to move slowly northwestward today
and then turn northward and northeastward on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/WxNB_/status/1719057586907967845