ATL: ERNESTO - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 69.1W
ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES



Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024

Ernesto has strengthened overnight. Satellite images show that a
more symmetric area of deep convection has formed near the center,
with a rather large curved band wrapping in all quadrants of the
hurricane. The initial intensity is set to 75 kt, matching the TAFB
and SAB estimates, though recent imagery suggests that could be a
little conservative. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
Aircraft is scheduled to be in the hurricane in a few hours.

Ernesto has turned northward and is moving at about 11 kt. The
models remain in good agreement that the hurricane should turn to
the northeast during the next day or so while moving through a break
in the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic towards a
mid-latitude trough. However, the trough departs by the weekend,
causing Ernesto to move slower to the north-northeast or north while
the hurricane approaches Bermuda Friday night and Saturday. Later
this weekend, a second trough will move across the eastern U.S., and
Ernesto should accelerate northeastward early next week within the
deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature. The NHC track
forecast is very close to the previous one as the track guidance
remains in good overall agreement.

While the shear near Ernesto remains low, a large dry slot continues
to wrap near the core, preventing anything other than slow
intensification so far. Most of the guidance gradually intensifies
the system during the next day or so as the very warm waters and
light-to-moderate shear outweigh the effects of the dry air. Little
change was made to the intensity forecast, and all of the guidance
show this system as a large hurricane near Bermuda. There remains
some indications that positive interactions with the second upper
trough and warmer than normal waters should cause the system to keep
much of its strength north of Bermuda, and the new forecast reflects
this. All of the guidance now show Ernesto as post-tropical by 120
h, and so does the NHC forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is expected to approach Bermuda late Friday and be near
the island Saturday and Saturday night. A prolonged period of
strong winds and storm surge is expected on Bermuda beginning late
Friday, and a hurricane warning has been issued for the island.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

2. Rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to begin to affect
Bermuda later today and may result in flash flooding Friday through
this weekend.

3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the
area late this week and into the weekend. Beach goers should be
aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip
currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf
and rip currents are also possible on the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas
during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 23.9N 69.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 25.4N 69.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 27.4N 68.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 29.3N 66.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 31.1N 65.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 32.6N 65.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 34.3N 65.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 39.7N 62.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 47.0N 52.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA...
...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES
THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 69.2W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES





Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024

Dry air appears to be disrupting Ernesto's attempts to become more
organized. Recent microwave satellite imagery has shown a large dry
slot wrapping into the center of the hurricane. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft currently investigating Ernesto has
found peak flight-level winds of 87 kt and an expanded surface wind
field. Normally, this elevated wind would reduce to a surface wind
speed of 75-80 kt, however, given the broad nature of the storm
and lack of inner-core organization, these winds may not be mixing
down as efficiently as usual. The initial intensity remains at 75
kt for this advisory.

Ernesto is moving to the north at about 12 kt. The model guidance
is tightly clustered and shows the hurricane turning to the
northeast within a day or so while moving through a break in the
subtropical ridge towards a trough located off the coast of the
eastern United States. As the trough lifts by the weekend, Ernesto
should slow and turn to the north-northeast or north, while
approaching Bermuda on Friday night and Saturday. By the end of
the weekend, Ernesto is expected to accelerate northeastward near
the coast of Atlantic Canada. There have been little changes
to the most recent NHC track forecast, which lies just west of the
corrected consensus aid, HCCA.

Model guidance is still suggesting that some continued gradual
strengthening is possible in the next day or so. The deep-layer
vertical wind shear is forecast to be weak to moderate, and Ernesto
should be over warm waters for the next few days. However, the
broad nature of the current circulation, coupled with some dry air
ingestion, will likely slow the intensification rate. Ernesto is
now forecast to peak at 95 kt in 24 h, which is near the top of the
model guidance envelope. Beyond a day, the shear is expected to
increase and induce gradually weakening, though the warm waters and
positive interaction with the upper-level trough will likely allow
Ernesto remain a powerful hurricane as it moves north of Bermuda.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is expected to approach Bermuda late Friday and be near
the island Saturday and Saturday night. A prolonged period of
strong winds and storm surge is expected on Bermuda beginning late
Friday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the island.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

2. Rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to begin to affect
Bermuda later today and may result in flash flooding Friday through
this weekend.

3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the
area during the next few days, including over the weekend. Beach
goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf
and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by
lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 25.0N 69.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 26.6N 68.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 28.5N 67.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 30.3N 66.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 32.0N 65.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 33.6N 65.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 35.6N 64.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 41.6N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 48.6N 48.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Onderlinde

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024

...CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BEGINNING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...
...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES
THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 68.9W
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES





Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024

The inner core of Ernesto continues to be plagued by dry air
intrusion. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that Ernesto
has yet to close off an eyewall. While the minimum central sea
level pressure has fallen to an estimated 972 mb based on dropsonde
data, the maximum flight-level winds are still at 86 kt, similar to
the earlier mission. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at
75 kt for this advisory cycle.

Ernesto has turned northward, with an estimated motion of 360/11 kt.
The storm is currently being steered by the flow between the
subtropical ridge centered over the north Atlantic Ocean and a
mid-latitude trough just off the eastern seaboard of North America.
This hurricane is expected to gradually turn more northeastward and
slow down over the next day or so as the trough lifts out to the
northeast. A subsequent trough is forecast to approach the New
England coast on Sunday and accelerate Ernesto off to the
northeast. The official track forecast is virtually unchanged from
the previous prediction and lies between the various consensus aids.
Based on the forecast, Ernesto is expected to pass near or over
Bermuda on Saturday and near or east of Atlantic Canada on Monday.

Warm waters and relatively low vertical wind shear should allow
Ernesto to gradually intensify over the next 12 hours or so.
Still, the mid-level atmospheric moisture is expected to be marginal
and the system could continue to experience dry air intrusions.
Global models suggest that while the vertical wind shear could
begin to increase within a day, Ernesto may be positioned in a
region relative to the departing trough where it could capitalize on
enhanced outflow and continue to strength. By the weekend,
atmospheric conditions should become less favorable and gradually
weaken the hurricane. Still, Ernesto is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane as it moves north of Bermuda. Little changes
have been made to the latest NHC intensity forecast, which lies
near the top of the model guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is expected to approach Bermuda late Friday and be near
the island Saturday and Saturday night. A prolonged period of
strong winds and storm surge is expected on Bermuda beginning late
Friday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the island.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

2. Rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to begin to affect
Bermuda this evening and may result in flash flooding Friday through
this weekend.

3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the
area during the next few days, including over the weekend. Beach
goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf
and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by
lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 26.1N 68.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 27.6N 68.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 29.5N 66.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 31.3N 65.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 32.9N 65.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 34.5N 64.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 36.9N 63.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 43.5N 57.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 50.1N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Onderlinde

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
800 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES BERMUDA...
...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 68.4W
ABOUT 450 MI...730 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES
BERMUDA...
...PREPARATIONS ON BERMUDA SHOULD BE COMPLETED BEFORE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 68.1W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES





Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024

Ernesto has been strengthening this evening. Data from an Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum pressure
has fallen to about 968 mb, and a blend of the peak flight-level
and SFMR winds support increasing the initial intensity to 85 kt.
This makes Ernesto a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Ernesto has a ragged eye and a large wind
field, with the highest winds occurring in the northeast quadrant.

Ernesto is moving north-northeastward at 12 kt in the flow between
a high pressure system over the central Atlantic and a large-scale
trough off the U.S. east coast. This general motion is expected to
continue for the next day or two, bringing the hurricane near or
over Bermuda on Saturday. Around that time, the trough is expected
to lift out, leaving Ernesto in weaker steering currents. As a
result, a slower and likely more erratic motion to the north or
north-northeast is forecast over the weekend. Another trough is
expected to approach the cyclone late in the weekend, and that
should cause an accelerated motion to the northeast near or east of
Atlantic Canada early next week. The NHC track forecast is a touch
to the east and a little slower than the previous one through its
passage near Bermuda to come into better agreement with the latest
consensus aids.

It seems likely that Ernesto will strengthen some more during the
next 12 to 24 hours as it is expected to remain in conducive
environmental conditions of low wind shear, upper-level diffluence,
a relatively moist airmass, and over warm waters during that time.
Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear and gradually cooler
waters should cause a slow weakening trend. However, baroclinic
influences could offset some of the weakening, which is why the
official forecast shows little change in strength during the 48- to
72-hour time frame. Ernesto is forecast to complete extratropical
transition by day 5, when it will likely be embedded within the
mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the
high end of the guidance, in best agreement with the HCCA model.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is moving toward Bermuda, and it is expected to bring a
prolonged period of strong winds and storm surge on Bermuda from
Friday afternoon through Saturday night. A hurricane warning is in
effect for the island, and preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

2. Rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to begin to affect
Bermuda overnight and may result in flash flooding Friday through
this weekend.

3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect
the area through the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a
significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay
out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents
are also possible on the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 27.1N 68.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 28.5N 67.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 30.4N 65.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 32.1N 65.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 33.5N 64.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 35.4N 64.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 38.2N 62.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 45.6N 54.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 51.0N 36.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING ACROSS BERMUDA STARTING LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 67.0W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES





Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

Ernesto's strengthening trend has seemingly halted overnight. The
cloud pattern near the center has become less organized, and the
system appears to be struggling with dry air again with some eyewall
erosion in the western semicircle. Still, the convective banding
in the eastern side where the previous aircraft mission found the
peak winds remains deep and well-defined, suggesting that Ernesto
hasn't lost much strength. The initial wind speed is kept at 85 kt
for this advisory, a bit above the latest satellite estimates,
pending the upcoming Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
mission this morning.

The environment near Ernesto could support some strengthening today.
However, the most noticeable change in the overnight intensity
guidance aids is that almost all of them are showing more shear
today than previously expected. This shear, combined with the
environmental dry air, has led to this cycle's intensity forecast
values being a lot lower than 6 h ago. Given current trends, the
NHC prediction has been decreased from the last forecast, and is
still on the high side of the guidance. It is worth noting that
despite the peak wind speed reductions, the forecast size is
generally larger than the previous forecast, so the
life-threatening hazards from Ernesto are unchanged. After the
hurricane passes Bermuda, there could be a brief window for some
re-intensification in lighter shear conditions plus favorable trough
influences before Ernesto crosses into cool waters, and little
change was made at longer range.

Ernesto continues moving north-northeastward at about 11 kt, steered
by the flow between a ridge over the central Atlantic and a
large-scale trough off the U.S. east coast. This general motion is
expected to persist for the next day or two, bringing the hurricane
near or over Bermuda on Saturday. The trough is forecast is lift
out over the weekend, causing Ernesto to slow down and turn a bit to
the north or north-northeast. Another trough is expected to
approach the cyclone late in the weekend, and that feature should
cause Ernesto to accelerate to the northeast near or east of
Newfoundland early next week. The NHC track forecast continues to
the trend of the previous one, nudged a touch to the east and a
little slower through its passage near Bermuda to come into better
agreement with the latest aids.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is expected to bring a prolonged period of strong winds
and storm surge on Bermuda starting this afternoon through Saturday
night. A hurricane warning is in effect for the island, and
preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to impact
Bermuda through this weekend and will likely result in considerable
life-threatening flash flooding.

3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect
the area through the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a
significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay
out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents
are also possible on the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 28.1N 67.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 29.6N 66.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 31.5N 65.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 32.8N 64.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 34.2N 64.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 36.2N 63.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 39.4N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 47.0N 51.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 21/0600Z 52.5N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

...LARGE ERNESTO EXPECTED TO BRING BERMUDA STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS
STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 66.4W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES



Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

Ernesto appears to be feeling the effects of vertical wind shear
this morning. The structure on satellite has become more asymmetric
with the coldest cloud tops shifted to the east of the center fixes
being made by an ongoing Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission, which
also found a 50-mile-wide eye open to the southwest. Despite the
degraded satellite appearance, the aircraft still found 700-mb
flight-level winds up to 98 kt, with peak SFMR-derived winds of 76
kt in the southeast quadrant of Ernesto. A blend of these data
still supports an intensity of 85 kt this advisory, though this
could be generous. The hurricane remains quite large with
tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 240 n mi southeast of the
center.

Ernesto continues to move north-northeast, estimated at 330/12 kt.
The deep-layer trough that has been initially influencing Ernesto's
motion is already starting to leave the tropical cyclone behind, and
the track guidance indicates the hurricane will begin to slow its
forward motion over the next day or so while continuing to move
north-northeastward. After that time, another shortwave trough
currently over the upper Midwest U.S. is forecast to dig
southeastward, which should ultimately result in Ernesto
accelerating northeastward around the periphery of the subtropical
ridge to its southeast. The track guidance this cycle is quite close
to the prior forecast, and the NHC track forecast only has minor
changes compared to the previous cycle.

Vertical wind shear diagnosed by SHIPS guidance is already up to 25
kt or greater, and this shear is likely to persist for another 12 to
24 h. Thus the latest NHC intensity forecast now shows a little more
weakening, though it should be noted some of the hurricane regional
models show Ernesto weakening below hurricane intensity over the
next 36 h. Thereafter, as the first trough bypasses the system, the
forecast shear decreases while the tropical cyclone remains over 28
C or warmer sea surface temperatures. Thus, there remains an
opportunity for Ernesto to re-intensify before it reaches the north
wall of the Gulf Stream by early next week. However, extratropical
transition will likely be underway shortly after it crosses over
much cooler waters after 72 h, with the latest NHC forecast showing
the system becoming extratropical at 96 h.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is expected to bring a prolonged period of strong winds
and storm surge on Bermuda starting this afternoon through Saturday
night. A hurricane warning is in effect for the island, and
preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to impact
Bermuda through this weekend and will likely result in considerable
life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on
the island.

3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect
the area through the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a
significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay
out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents
are also possible on the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 29.5N 66.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 31.0N 65.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 32.5N 64.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 33.8N 64.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 35.4N 63.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 38.1N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 41.6N 59.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 48.4N 47.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1200Z 52.0N 26.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

...ERNESTO MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER BERMUDA SHORTLY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 65.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES





Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

After looking quite ragged this morning, Ernesto's structure on
satellite has made a comeback. A burst of convection that began
after the last advisory has wrapped around the western side of the
hurricane, and the eye has also tried to clear. The structural
improvement in Ernesto was also seen from the last couple of Air
Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter fixes which indicated the eyewall
definition had improved while remaining quite large. This improved
eyewall can also be seen on radar imagery out of Bermuda. Before
departing, the peak flight-level winds from the NOAA-P3 aircraft was
107 kt at 750 mb, while the Air Force reconnaissance measured 99 kt
at 700 mb. While the satellite-based intensity estimates are a bit
lower, the initial intensity will be held at 85 kt given the higher
aircraft observations and improvement in structure this afternoon.
Of note, Saildrone SD-1068 appears to currently be in the northwest
eyewall of Ernesto and recently reported wind gusts of
hurricane-force and significant wave heights up to 36 feet.

Ernesto has maintained a north-northeast track this afternoon,
estimated at 035/11 kt. There isn't much change in the track
thinking this afternoon, as a mid to upper-level trough that has
been helping the hurricane move poleward will leave Ernesto behind
over the next day or two. While Ernesto will remain steered by a
subtropical ridge to its southeast, it is still forecast to
temporarily slow its north-northeastward motion. Thereafter, another
shortwave trough moving into the Great Lakes region is expected to
dig southeastward over the Eastern U.S. and act as a kicker that
will help to accelerate Ernesto more northeastward between forecast
days 2 to 3. There is not much change to the track guidance this
afternoon, just perhaps a touch slower after the next 24 hours, and
the NHC track forecast lies very close to the prior one, close to
the multi-model consensus aids. Based on the latest track, Ernesto's
large eye will likely be very near or over Bermuda tomorrow
morning.

Intensity-wise, the model guidance continues to be insistent that
Ernesto will weaken some in the short term as it battles 20-25 kt
vertical wind shear out of the west, though so far Ernesto has been
been more resilient than expected, possibly due to its large size.
Nonetheless, this NHC intensity forecast will show some weakening,
though not as much as IVCN or some of the hurricane-regional models
over the next 24 h. After that time, shear decreases again while
Ernesto will remain over 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures, and the
intensity guidance responds to these more favorable conditions by
showing some restrengthening. Finally, after 60 h, Ernesto will
quickly cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream as the shear also
begins to rapidly increase again. The NHC intensity forecast shows
the hurricane completing extratropical tradition just after 72 h as
the system passes nearby the southeastern coast of Newfoundland
Canada.

Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is expected to bring a prolonged period of strong winds
and storm surge on Bermuda that is beginning currently and expected
to continue through Saturday night. A hurricane warning is in effect
for the island, and preparations to protect life and property should
be completed as tropical-storm-force winds are already
being observed on the island.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to impact
Bermuda through Saturday and will likely result in considerable
life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on
the island.

3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect
the area through the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a
significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay
out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents
are also possible on the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 30.6N 65.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 31.9N 65.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 33.1N 64.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 34.6N 64.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 36.6N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 39.8N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 43.5N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 50.0N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1800Z 53.5N 22.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
800 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING BEGINNING OVER BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 65.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

...ERNESTO VERY NEAR BERMUDA...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 65.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES




Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

Ernesto is very near Bermuda. The island has been in the northern
rainbands since this afternoon, and the eyewall is closing in on the
island as seen in Bermuda's Doppler radar images. So far,
tropical-storm-force winds with gusts to hurricane force have been
observed on Bermuda, and the strongest winds will likely occur there
during the next several hours. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have
been investigating Ernesto this evening and found that the minimum
pressure has been steady around 969 mb. A blend of the latest
flight-level and SFMR winds support an initial intensity of about 80
kt. Recent microwave images indicate that the vortex is tilted to
the east-northeast with height due to about 20 kt of
west-southwesterly vertical wind shear.

The already tilted vortex coupled with continued moderate to strong
shear and possible intrusions of dry air should cause some weakening
during the next day or so. However, the shear is expected to lessen
during the 24- to 60-h time period, and since Ernesto will still be
over the Gulf Stream Current then, the weakening trend should pause.
In fact, Ernesto is forecast to strengthen some during that time,
following the hurricane regional models and consensus aids. On
Monday, the cyclone is predicted to cross the north wall of the Gulf
Stream and track over sharply cooler waters while moving into a
strong wind shear environment. Therefore, steady weakening is
forecast at that point, and Ernesto is expected to complete
extratropical transition shortly after day 3. The NHC intensity
forecast is largely an update of the previous one.

Ernesto is still moving northeastward at 11 kt, however, the
hurricane is expected to slow down soon as the trough off Atlantic
Canada continues to lift out. The expected slower motion and
Ernesto's large size will cause a long duration of impacts through
Saturday night on Bermuda. After the hurricane pulls away from
Bermuda, another trough is forecast to push off the U.S. east coast.
This feature should cause the cyclone to accelerate northeastward
later in the weekend and early next week, taking Ernesto near
Newfoundland Monday night. The NHC track forecast is a little
slower than the previous one to come into better agreement with the
latest models.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is expected to bring a prolonged period of strong winds
and storm surge on Bermuda through Saturday night. A hurricane
warning is in effect for the island. Residents there should listen
to orders from local officials.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to impact
Bermuda through Saturday and will likely result in considerable
life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on
the island.

3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect
the area through the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a
significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay
out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents
are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 31.4N 65.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 32.6N 64.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 33.7N 64.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 35.3N 63.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 38.1N 61.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 41.5N 59.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 45.1N 54.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 51.3N 36.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/0000Z 54.7N 17.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024

...ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL ON BERMUDA...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON BERMUDA TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 64.8W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES






Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024

Satellite and surface observations indicate that the center of
Ernesto made landfall on the western side of Bermuda at about 430 AM
AST, with the National Museum of Bermuda recently reporting light
winds and a central pressure of 972 mb. The system overall has
become less organized as drier air has infiltrated much of the
circulation's southern semicircle. Earlier aircraft reconnaissance
data supported 75-80 kt as an initial intensity, and with the
degradation in the satellite imagery, 75 kt is chosen as the current
intensity (and operational landfall intensity). The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters should be out again in a few hours to sample the
cyclone.

While the current moderate shear is forecast to weaken today, it
will take some time for the vortex to recover from the dry air as
it moves across warm waters north of Bermuda. Thus little change in
intensity is anticipated in the short term, and re-strengthening
could begin tomorrow. This should be a fairly short-lived window,
however, since Ernesto will be crossing the north wall of the Gulf
Stream on Monday while moving into a strong wind shear environment.
Therefore, steady weakening is forecast for the work week, and
Ernesto is expected to complete extratropical transition near or
just east of Newfoundland. The NHC intensity forecast is largely
an update of the previous one, a bit lower in the short-term to
account for recent guidance.

Ernesto has turned more to the north-northeast overnight and slowed
down to about 8 kt. The motion should creep in that direction today
as the hurricane is stuck in an area of lighter steering currents,
waiting for the next trough to move off the U.S. East coast. This
slow motion and Ernesto's large size will cause a long duration of
impacts through tonight on Bermuda. The trough should force the
cyclone to accelerate northeastward later in the weekend and early
next week, taking Ernesto near Newfoundland Monday night. The
guidance is again slower than the previous cycle, so the NHC track
forecast is trended in that direction. Global model fields depict
that Ernesto should open into a trough, or become absorbed in a
larger polar low by 120 h over the northern Atlantic ocean, thus the
NHC forecast now shows the system dissipated at that time.

Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is expected to bring periods of strong winds, storm
surge and battering waves on Bermuda through tonight. A hurricane
warning is in effect for the island, and residents there should
listen to orders from local officials.

2. Heavy rainfall from Ernesto will continue to impact Bermuda
through tonight and will likely result in considerable life-
threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the
island.

3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect
the area through the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a
significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay
out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents
are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days.

4. Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of
Ernesto.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 32.3N 64.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 33.3N 64.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 34.6N 63.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 36.6N 62.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 39.8N 61.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 43.5N 57.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 47.0N 51.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 21/0600Z 51.5N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER STILL OCCURING ON BERMUDA AS ERNESTO MOVES
SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 64.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1125 MI...1805 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES





Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft made a couple of
passes through Ernesto this morning and only found 700-mb flight
level winds as high as 74 kt--significantly lower than the maximum
winds reported by the mission yesterday evening and overnight. The
initial intensity is therefore set at 70 kt for this advisory, and
even that could be a bit generous. Although the central pressure
has not risen much, Ernesto's wind field has continued to expand,
and the hurricane is now exhibiting a large rain-free center region
that is just about to move past Bermuda.

The forward motion has slowed a bit more and is now estimated to be
north-northeastward (025 degrees) at 7 kt. Ernesto has been left
behind by a shortwave trough now located near Newfoundland, and
therefore a continued slow motion toward the north-northeast is
forecast for the next day or so until another trough to the west
gets closer. Ernesto should begin accelerating on Sunday as it
heads toward Atlantic Canada, turning northeastward and passing
very near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.
The guidance has again slowed down on this cycle, and the NHC
forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

Although deep-layer shear is forecast to diminish a bit during the
next 24 hours while Ernesto remains over waters of 28 degrees
Celsius, the structure of the hurricane and dry air within the
circulation suggest that the storm may not be able to re-intensity
much, if at all. The NHC intensity forecast is near the top end of
the guidance and does keep Ernesto as a hurricane for the next 48
hours. Weakening is expected after that time, and global model
fields suggest Ernesto should become extratropical by 72 hours
while or just after passing Newfoundland. A 96-hour point is
provided for continuity, but both the GFS and ECMWF indicate that
the circulation could open up into a trough over the north Atlantic
by then.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is moving slowly, and its impacts on Bermuda are
not over. Strong winds, heavy rainfall, coastal flooding, and
battering waves are likely through tonight. The heavy rains will
likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding,
especially in low-lying areas on the island.

2. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect
the area through early next week. Beach goers should be aware that
there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip
currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.
Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
Atlantic Canada during the next few days.

3. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of
southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 32.9N 64.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 33.7N 63.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 35.3N 63.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 37.9N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 41.3N 59.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 44.9N 54.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 47.7N 47.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/1200Z 51.2N 27.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024

...ERNESTO INCHING AWAY FROM BERMUDA BUT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON THE ISLAND...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 64.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES





Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024

Recent infrared and microwave imagery indicate show that Ernesto's
convective activity is a little thin, with the deepest convection
located in a small band just north of the center. Subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates have decreased through the
day, and combined with the earlier data from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft--which only measured 700-mb wind of 74 kt--it is estimated
that Ernesto's maximum sustained winds are near 65 kt.

Ernesto has slowed down during the day while moving away from
Bermuda, and the initial motion is north-northeastward (030
degrees) at 5 kt. This slow motion is likely to continue for the
next 12 hours or so, before the flow increases ahead of an
approaching trough and causes Ernesto to accelerate toward the
north-northeast on Sunday. The cyclone is forecast to turn
northeastward on Monday, and model guidance continues to show the
center passing just to the southeast of Newfoundland late Monday or
Monday night. After passing Newfoundland, Ernesto is expected to
accelerate further toward the east-northeast over the north
Atlantic. The track guidance is very tightly packed through 72
hours, and no significant changes were required from the previous
NHC forecast.

Despite Ernesto's recent weakening, the hurricane will move over
warm waters of 28 degrees Celsius and within a light-shear
environment for the next 24 hours or so. The storm's current broad
structure may not allow for significant strengthening within this
otherwise favorable environment, but many of the dynamical
hurricane models, global models, and consensus aids suggest that
Ernesto could re-intensity by 5-10 kt over the next day or so.
This is reflected in the official intensity forecast. Weakening
should begin by 48 hours due increasing shear and Ernesto moving
over colder waters north of the Gulf Stream, and the cyclone is
likely to become post-tropical by 60 hours while it is passing near
southeastern Newfoundland. The GFS and ECMWF models indicate that
dissipation should occur by day 4 when the circulation opens up
into a trough over the north Atlantic.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is moving slowly, and its impacts on Bermuda are
not over. Strong winds, heavy rainfall, coastal flooding, and
battering waves should continue through tonight. The heavy rains
will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding,
especially in low-lying areas on the island.

2. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect
the area through early next week. Beach goers should be aware that
there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip
currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.
Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
Atlantic Canada during the next few days.

3. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of
southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 33.3N 64.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 34.3N 63.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 36.5N 62.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 39.5N 60.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 43.0N 57.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 46.4N 50.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/1800Z 48.9N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024

Satellite imagery and radar data from Bermuda continue to show
limited convection associated with Ernesto, with the strongest
convection in a poorly-defined eyewall in the northern semicircle.
This is likely due to a tongue of dry air wrapping around the
system from the northwest into the central core. The various
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have
decreased a little more since the last advisory, and based on this
the initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt.

The initial motion is 030/7 kt. This slow motion should continue
for the next 6-12 h as a mid-latitude shortwave ridge passes to the
north of Ernesto. After that, southwesterly flow on the east side
of a mid-latitude trough moving through the eastern United States
should cause the cyclone to accelerate to the north-northeast,
northeast, and eventually east-northeast. This motion should bring
the center just southeast of Newfoundland late Monday and Monday
night, with the system moving into the open north Atlantic
thereafter. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the
new forecast track has only minor changes from the previous track.

Little change in strength is expected tonight while Ernesto tries
to mix out the dry air tongue. After that, upper-level divergence
is forecast to increase while the cyclone is still over relatively
warm water. This could allow some modest re-intensification as
show by the dynamical models, and this remains reflected in the
intensity forecast. After 36 h, the cyclone should weaken as it
moves over colder water and begins extratropical transition.
Transition should be complete by 60 h, and and the post-tropical low
is expected to degenerate to a trough over the northeastern
Atlantic between 72-96 h.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is still moving slowly, and its impacts on Bermuda are
not quite over. Strong winds, heavy rainfall, coastal flooding, and
battering waves should continue for a few more hours. The heavy
rains will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash
flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island.

2. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect
the area through early next week. Beach goers should be aware that
there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip
currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.
Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
Atlantic Canada during the next few days.

3. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of
southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 33.9N 63.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 35.3N 62.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 37.9N 61.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 41.3N 58.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 44.7N 53.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 47.7N 46.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/0000Z 50.4N 36.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024

...ERNESTO COULD RESTRENGTHEN SOME TODAY...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
THROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.6N 63.0W
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES





Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 27...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024

Corrected text of second key message.

Ernesto's cloud pattern hasn't changed much overnight, and lacks a
well-defined eye feature. Deep convection has been trying to
wrap around the eastern portion of the circulation, giving the
system a fairly symmetric overall appearance. The current
intensity estimate is held at 60 kt which is in good agreement with
the latest objective, AID, estimates from UW-CIMSS. Subjective
Dvorak satellite estimates are somewhat lower. Unfortunately the
most recent scatterometer overpasses missed most of the circulation.

The tropical cyclone continues on a rather slow north-northeastward
heading, with an initial motion estimate of 025/8 kt. The steering
flow on the east side of a large mid-tropospheric trough approaching
the U.S. east coast should cause an increase in forward speed during
the next day or so along with a turn toward the northeast. In 2-3
days, Ernesto is likely to turn toward the east-northeast with
additional acceleration as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude
westerlies over the north Atlantic. The track guidance models
remain in good agreement, and little changes to the previous NHC
track forecast were required.

Ernesto is still over warm waters, and should remain over SSTs of
at least 27 deg C for the next 24 hours or so. Also, vertical wind
shear is forecast to remain low today with upper-level divergence
diagnosed over the area by the SHIPS model diagnostics. These
environmental factors favor a short period of restrengthening
today, and this reflected in the official forecast. In 36-48
hours, the cyclone will encounter much cooler waters and this
should cause weakening. Simulated IR satellite imagery from the
global models show an increasingly asymmetric cloud structure by
the time the system passes near Newfoundland, and the official
forecast indicates post-tropical transition by 48 hours. Ernesto
is predicted to open up and become a large trough over the
northeastern Atlantic by 96 hours.


Key Messages:

1. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore of the
U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to
affect the area through early next week. Beach goers should be
aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and
rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by
lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas,
Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.

2. Ernesto could bring wind and wave impacts to portions of
southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 34.6N 63.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 36.4N 62.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 39.4N 60.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 42.9N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 46.4N 50.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 20/1800Z 49.0N 41.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/0600Z 51.0N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024

...ERNESTO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN TODAY...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC
CANADA TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 62.5W
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 880 MI...1410 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES






Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024

After struggling to produce a lot of deep central convection over
the past 24 hours, Ernesto resembles more of a typical tropical
cyclone this morning, as convection continues to burst and wrap
around the center. There have also been hints of a cloud-filled eye
feature showing up on visible satellite imagery. However, subjective
and objective intensity estimates have not yet responded to the
modest improvement in Ernesto's structure on satellite, and the
initial intensity will remain just under hurricane intensity at
60 kt this advisory.

Ernesto has about a 12-18 h window to intensify back into a
hurricane while the shear remains low, and sea-surface temperatures
(SSTs) are between 27-28 C before the cyclone reaches the north wall
of the Gulf Stream. After Ernesto crosses this feature, the SSTs
sharply decrease and shear markedly increases, both which should
initiate extratropical transition. This process should be complete
in about 48 h with the cyclone opening up into a trough as it is
absorbed by another extratropical cyclone beyond 72 h. The NHC
intensity forecast is largely an update from the previous cycle, in
good agreement with the intensity consensus guidance.

The tropical cyclone is beginning to accelerate north-northeastward,
estimated at 020/14 kt. There is little change in the forecast track
thinking, with a large mid-latitude trough moving into the U.S. East
Coast that, in combination with a large subtropical ridge to the
southeast, is expected to cause Ernesto to increase in forward speed
along with a turn more northeastward over the next couple of days.
On this track, Ernesto should make its closest approach to
Newfoundland just to the southeast early Tuesday morning, with the
bulk of the cyclone's wind field staying offshore of the Canadian
Provence. After post-tropical transition, the cyclone is expected to
turn east-northeastward until its absorbed by a larger extratropical
cyclone. The track guidance this cycle was a bit slower and touch
further west early on, but ultimately the latest NHC track forecast
ends up very close to the prior one after 24 h.


Key Messages:

1. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore of the
U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to
affect the area through the early part of this week. Beach goers
should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening
surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised
by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the
Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.

2. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of
southeastern Newfoundland Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding,
particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Bunin east to
Avalon regions. For additional impact specific information, please
see statements issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 36.1N 62.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 38.0N 61.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 41.1N 58.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 44.6N 53.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 48.0N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 21/0000Z 50.5N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/1200Z 52.1N 23.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Sun Aug 18 2024

...ERNESTO IS A HURRICANE AGAIN...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS OCCURING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND
ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.1N 62.3W
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES






Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Sun Aug 18 2024

The structure of Ernesto this afternoon has continued to improve,
with a more distinct eye becoming apparent on recent visible and
infrared satellite images. This improving inner-core structure is
also exhibited in a 1808 UTC GMI microwave pass that also showed a
closed cyan ring on the 37-GHz color composite channel, which could
be a harbinger for more significant intensification. While
subjective Dvorak estimates have not increased much this afternoon,
the objective intensity values now range from 60-69 kt and so the
initial intensity was raised to 65 kt, making Ernesto a hurricane
again. Ernesto's wind field is a bit smaller than yesterday, as
indicated by a helpful set of scatterometer passes over Ernesto that
were useful to adjust the 34- and 50-kt wind radii earlier today.

With the improving inner-core structure, Ernesto is looking
increasingly likely to take advantage of the favorable short-term
conditions until the hurricane reaches the northern extent of the
Gulf Stream at around 40 N. The raw output form the
hurricane-regional model guidance now all show an overnight or
Monday morning peak intensity of 75-kt or higher in the next 12-24
h, and the latest NHC intensity forecast now shows a bit more
intensification overnight. However, Ernesto will quickly move over
cooler ocean waters just after 12 h and weakening will likely be
well underway by tomorrow afternoon. Shear is also forecast to
increase after that time as well, and my best guess at the timing of
extratropical transition, diagnosed by FSU cyclone-phase space
diagrams and GFS/EC simulated satellite imagery, is shortly after
36 h on Tuesday morning as Ernesto passes just southeast of
Newfoundland. The NHC intensity forecast is on the upper-end of the
interpolated guidance aids in 12 h, but falls back to the
multi-model intensity mean towards the end of its lifespan in 60-h
where the cyclone will open up into a trough over the central North
Atlantic.

Ernesto continues its gradual acceleration north-northeast,
estimated now at 020/15-kt. A further increase in forward motion
with a turn more northeastward is anticipated over the next 24-36 h
as Ernesto becomes caught up in the flow between a large deep-layer
trough over the eastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge centered to the
hurricane's southeast. A turn more east-northeastward is expected
thereafter before the cyclone becomes absorbed by a larger
extratropical cyclone located further north between Greenland and
Iceland. The track guidance this cycle remains tightly clustered
and pretty close to the prior forecast track, and only slight track
adjustments were made this cycle. On this track, Ernesto should
make its closest approach to Newfoundland just to the southeast
early Tuesday morning, with the bulk of the cyclone's wind field
staying offshore of the Canadian Provence.

Key Messages:

1. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore of the
U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane will continue to
affect the area through the early part of this week. Beach goers
should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening
surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised
by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the
Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.

2. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of
southeastern Newfoundland Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding,
particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Bunin east to
Avalon regions. For additional impact specific information, please
see statements issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 37.1N 62.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 39.2N 60.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 42.6N 57.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 46.1N 50.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 48.9N 41.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 21/0600Z 51.0N 29.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 18 2024

Ernesto continues to have a good structure this evening with a
partly cloud-filled eye surrounded by bands of convection, although
the convective cloud tops are not quite as cold as they were 6 h
ago. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are now
near 65 kt, while various objective estimates are now near 75 kt.
The initial intensity is increased to 70 kt based on a blend of
these data.

Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 6-12 h
before Ernesto moves north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream.
After that, the system should quickly decay as it moves over colder
water and encounters increasing southwesterly shear. The cyclone
should become an extratropical low by 36 h as it passes south of
southeastern Newfoundland, and by 72 h it should be absorbed into a
larger non-tropical low developing south of Iceland. The new
intensity forecast is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance
for the first 12 h, and after that lies near the intensity
consensus.

The initial motion is now 030/17 kt. A northeastward motion at a
faster forward speed is expected over the next 24-36 h as Ernesto
becomes caught up in the flow between a large deep-layer trough
over the eastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge centered to the
hurricane's southeast. This motion should bring the center south
of southeastern Newfoundland late Monday night or early Tuesday
morning, with most of the wind field staying offshore. A more
east-northeastward motion is expected thereafter before the cyclone
becomes absorbed by the aforementioned larger extratropical
cyclone. The tightly clustered track guidance has shifted a little
to the north since the last advisory, so the new track forecast is a
little north of the previous track.


Key Messages:

1. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore of the
U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane will continue to
affect the area through the early part of this week. Beach goers
should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening
surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised
by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the
Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.

2. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of
southeastern Newfoundland Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding,
particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Bunin east to
Avalon regions. For additional impact specific information, please
see statements issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 38.5N 61.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 40.9N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 44.3N 54.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 47.4N 46.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/0000Z 50.0N 35.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 21/1200Z 52.5N 24.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 AM AST Mon Aug 19 2024

Satellite imagery shows that Ernesto's eye is irregularly-shaped,
with fairly cold convective cloud tops over the northern portion of
the circulation. The southwestern part of the high cloud canopy is
beginning to become slightly blunted, which suggests some
southwesterly shear is beginning to affect the system. The
various objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS indicate that, a
couple of hours ago, the hurricane strengthened a little more, but
recently the overall cloud pattern appears to have become a little
less organized. This suggests that Ernesto has stopped
strengthening, and the current intensity estimate is set at 75 kt
which is in general agreement with subjective Dvorak T-numbers.

Center fixes indicate a gradual increase in forward speed overnight
and the initial motion estimate is 030/18 kt. Ernesto is expected
to accelerate northeastward in the flow ahead of a large deep-layer
trough near the U.S. east coast for the next 24 hours or so. This
motion should bring the center of the cyclone near southeastern
Newfoundland tonight or early Tuesday. Based on the NHC
forecast, most of the stronger winds in the system's circulation
are expected to stay offshore of Newfoundland. Thereafter, a
faster east-northeastward motion over the North Atlantic is forecast
while the cyclone becomes fully embedded within the mid-latitude
westerlies. In 2-3 days, Ernesto is likely to open up into a
trough while merging with a large extratropical low to the south of
Iceland. The official track forecast follows the latest dynamical
model consensus and is just slightly to the north of the previous
NHC prediction.

Ernesto will be traversing significantly cooler waters later today
and will be impacted by increasing west-southwesterly vertical wind
shear during the next day or two. Therefore, a weakening trend
should begin by tonight or earlier. The official intensity forecast
is quite similar to the latest Decay-SHIPS numerical guidance.
Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest that the
system will become post-tropical within the next day or so.


Key Messages:

1. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore of the
U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane will continue to
affect the area through the early part of this week. Beach goers
should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening
surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised
by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the
Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.

2. Ernesto will likely bring some wind, wave, and rain impacts to
portions of southeastern Newfoundland tonight into Tuesday morning.
Breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding,
particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Bunin east to
Avalon regions. For additional impact specific information, please
see statements issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 40.2N 60.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 42.7N 57.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 46.3N 51.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 20/1800Z 49.0N 41.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/0600Z 50.8N 30.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 21/1800Z 53.0N 19.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 19 2024

Ernesto continues to slowly gain strength. Satellite images
indicate that the eye of the hurricane has become a little better
defined, but the storm still has a convective asymmetry with the
strongest thunderstorms on the north side. The latest Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB were 4.5/77 kt and the objective
satellite guidance is a little higher. Based on the data and the
improved structure, the initial wind speed is increased to 80 kt.
A very recent ASCAT pass indicated that Ernesto remains a large
tropical cyclone. The strongest winds and largest radius of
hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds are located in the
southeastern quadrant.

The hurricane is gradually accelerating to the north-northeast, or
30 degrees at 19 kt. The strong flow between an approaching mid-
to upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. and a ridge over the
subtropical central Atlantic should cause the cyclone to accelerate
even more and turn to the northeast and east-northeast during the
next couple of days. The NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Ernesto is now crossing the north wall of the Gulf Stream, and will
soon be moving over sharply cooler SSTs. In addition, the hurricane
will be moving into an environment of stronger shear and drier air.
All of these conditions should lead to weakening very soon and
extratropical transition, which is expected to be complete by early
Tuesday. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one,
and follows the GFS guidance during the extratropical phase.


Key Messages:

1. Swells generated by Ernesto will continue to affect the coasts
of Bermuda, the northeast U.S., and Atlantic Canada during the next
day or so. Beach goers should be aware that there is a significant
risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and should stay out
of the water if advised by lifeguards.

2. Ernesto will likely bring some wind, wave, and rain impacts to
portions of southeastern Newfoundland tonight into Tuesday morning.
Breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding,
particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Bunin east to
Avalon regions. For additional impact specific information, please
see statements issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 41.8N 58.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 44.5N 54.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 47.7N 46.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 21/0000Z 49.9N 36.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/1200Z 52.2N 24.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Nepaul