ATL: RAFAEL - Models

[Steve]

Joes Saturday summary looked at the MJO which 8/1 doesn’t predict landfalls on the NE Gulf but the verifications do show those to be strong phases across NC/NE FL and S GA. I’m curious to see if it can stay together or if it’s just going to die out over the water midweek as it heads toward the west Gulf as many global models have been indicating. If it takes an eastern/landfall scenario, I think it would be east of Pensacola.

Looks like landfall will be heavily dependent on the timing of the next front moving across CONUS. Most of the models show it getting yanked NE eventually

Yeah I think so too. They’ve been overplaying longwave troughs since late September but it’s November.

[eastcoastFL]

Joes Saturday summary looked at the MJO which 8/1 doesn’t predict landfalls on the NE Gulf but the verifications do show those to be strong phases across NC/NE FL and S GA. I’m curious to see if it can stay together or if it’s just going to die out over the water midweek as it heads toward the west Gulf as many global models have been indicating. If it takes an eastern/landfall scenario, I think it would be east of Pensacola.

Looks like landfall will be heavily dependent on the timing of the next front moving across CONUS. Most of the models show it getting yanked NE eventually

Yeah I think so too. They’ve been overplaying longwave troughs since late September but it’s November.

Exactly. Tis the season for it.

[HurricaneBelle]

12Z GFS is a fun run today, takes 97L as a TS over Jamaica then moves it NW over western Cuba and into the SE Gulf as a borderline TS/hurricane before weakening it south of Pensacola. It then drifts west and then northwest into LA as a depression.

But right behind 97L is another system north of Puerto Rico that develops over the Bahamas as a TS and then moves through the Straits before turning WSW over western Cuba and then making landfall on the northern coast of the Yucatan, falling apart and drifting W until it's pushed southward over the Bay of Campeche and dissipating.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z hurricane models are all in general agreement of 97L becoming a rather significant hurricane by landfall in Cuba. There is certainly historical precedence for November major hurricanes in the western Caribbean fairly recently, so I don't see why it's not feasible.

[xironman]

Stupid cold dry air killing the storm

[xironman]

Why can't we have hurricane models that understand how bad the environment is

[ronjon]

Haf-A at 934 mb! Haf-B at 946 mb! I'd have to say they're more than slightly overdone. They seem to have gone off the deep end, even compared to HWRF and HMON.

[xironman]

One more



No mas?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mboS29Q0eug

[WaveBreaking]

12z hurricane models are all in general agreement of 97L becoming a rather significant hurricane by landfall in Cuba. There is certainly historical precedence for November major hurricanes in the western Caribbean fairly recently, so I don't see why it's not feasible.

Yeah I agree. All models show 97L having a small core, which means that if it gets itself together, then it wouldn’t take long for it to take advantage of the 29-30C waters it’ll be traveling over. 97L will also have an upper-level anticyclone coupled with it the entire time it’s in the Caribbean, which is unsettling to say the least.

[TallyTracker]

I’m really having trouble believing the hurricane models intensities in the Gulf of a Cat 4 or 5. I think a weakening Cat 2 or 3 moving north into the Gulf is possible. The environment in the Gulf just doesn’t look as good as it was when Milton formed a month ago. I’m thinking right now a Cat 1 into Cuba weakening to a moderate TS upon hitting the northern Gulf coast. I’m still not buying the stall and drift west to Louisiana.

[canes92]

One more

https://i.imgur.com/gjc4XpA.png

No mas?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mboS29Q0eug

Just a sick joke right?

[tolakram]

Shear tendency dropping right now.

[GCANE]

That escalated quickly

 https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1853164405975920694

[underthwx]

I’m really having trouble believing the hurricane models intensities in the Gulf of a Cat 4 or 5. I think a weakening Cat 2 or 3 moving north into the Gulf is possible. The environment in the Gulf just doesn’t look as good as it was when Milton formed a month ago. I’m thinking right now a Cat 1 into Cuba weakening to a moderate TS upon hitting the northern Gulf coast. I’m still not buying the stall and drift west to Louisiana.

I agree, sounds reasonable that the system will encounter a "hostile" environment, thus weakening the cyclone as it approaches its area of landfall, yet to be determined. Possibly the panhandle of Florida? But please, take that with a grain of salt. Its a complex setup to be sure, that will govern 97L and its behavior.

[xironman]

SHIPS says cane

* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL972024 11/03/24 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 46 54 62 68 73 72 70 60 49 39 35 29 38
V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 46 54 62 68 70 68 66 57 46 34 31 28 27
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 42 47 53 56 56 54 48 40 31 29 28 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP

SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 8 4 5 5 13 20 26 18 20 29 36 35 47 52
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 0 -2 -1 -2 -4 1 -1 4 5 13 5 3 1 7 1
SHEAR DIR 224 223 238 259 266 223 191 219 233 255 266 267 259 265 249 246 256
SST (C) 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.1 29.9 30.1 29.6 28.1 27.9 26.8 27.4 28.2 27.5 25.9 25.1 24.3 24.8
POT. INT. (KT) 161 166 169 170 167 172 163 140 136 120 126 139 130 111 103 100 106
200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.3 -52.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 3 3 3 4 2 2
700-500 MB RH 76 74 74 73 73 72 69 67 62 55 52 50 50 45 37 29 29
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 14 15 17 18 18 20 21 22 18 14 10 8 5 14
850 MB ENV VOR 88 98 106 111 111 112 91 80 44 56 55 14 -29 -49 -42 -73 -79
200 MB DIV 131 146 98 62 68 64 67 68 67 47 12 -1 27 35 38 -2 9
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 1 3 5 2 9 15 7 2 13 26 14 19 -4
LAND (KM) 356 388 284 215 150 22 204 49 160 318 359 368 142 -5 -29 -70 -340
LAT (DEG N) 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 77.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 7 6 9 11 12 14 12 5 4 8 9 6 4 12 16
HEAT CONTENT 56 73 80 78 73 76 75 57 30 19 23 24 7 2 1 0 0

[REDHurricane]

Not cool, HAFS-A...

[cycloneye]

From the discussion related to the models:

The hurricane regional models are very aggressive, however, their intensity predictions appear
overdone, at least in the short term. The NHC intensity forecast is closer to the statistical-dynamical models DSHP and LGEM and near the IVCN consensus aid.

[tolakram]

Stay on topic please

[Emmett_Brown]

Both the 18z Icon and GFS have trended to the right v previous runs; passing closer to the FL peninsula

[underthwx]

Joes Saturday summary looked at the MJO which 8/1 doesn’t predict landfalls on the NE Gulf but the verifications do show those to be strong phases across NC/NE FL and S GA. I’m curious to see if it can stay together or if it’s just going to die out over the water midweek as it heads toward the west Gulf as many global models have been indicating. If it takes an eastern/landfall scenario, I think it would be east of Pensacola.

Looks like landfall will be heavily dependent on the timing of the next front moving across CONUS. Most of the models show it getting yanked NE eventually

Yeah I think so too. They’ve been overplaying longwave troughs since late September but it’s November.

I saw part of a video yesterday, forgive me but I can't remember which it was, but it eluded to what yall are discussing here, and it makes mention of the system being funneled in between the front, and high pressure to the east, resulting in a NEward movement?