2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[cycloneye]

Long range 12z Euro has this.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

A weak signal on the EPS has actually appeared in the long range by the second week of May in the SW Caribbean. AFAIK this model doesn't have the biases the G(E)FS has in this region, hence why it has piqued my interest. Wondering if this is from an early CAG? Granted climo says the EPAC would be favored, and I am inclined to believe that would be the case here if any TCG actually manifests (even though it is the offseason over there as well).

[chaser1]

Interesting and not at all unrealistic considering that the end of that forecast cycle goes out to May 11, only 4 days prior to the start of the EPAC's Hurricane Season. A fair number of ensemble members focusing on possible development in the S.W. Caribbean suggests to me a northward tilt/extension of the ITCZ at that time. Also interesting is the consensus motion toward the northeast rather then toward the west. This early, that's likely a result of the low latitude easterly trades having yet to establish themselves. At the same time though, I do always look for hints suggesting low level Easterly surge strength as well as the orientation and steering of the mid Atlantic heights that are beginning to evolve.

[StPeteMike]

Surprise no one has mentioned the 18z GFS with the moderate TS into Biloxi MS in 2 weeks. Obviously, it’s 2 weeks out and should be taken with a grain of salt, but we need some entertainment, right?!?