2025 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

Models have been keying on May 29-31.
Could see a decent system.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1924559321331073424

[cycloneye]

Here we go.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue May 20 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Eastern East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form by this weekend into early next
week several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Conditions appear favorable for some development of this system
thereafter while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$

[Kingarabian]

Models also showing the possibility of multiple systems between between May 29 through June 7.

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1924844725015642569



Say what you will about the Atlantic sst set up, the Epac's noticeably unfavorable.

[Kingarabian]

GFS and Euro shifting towards a larger system in the most recent runs. Would limit development greatly.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed May 21 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early next
week several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Conditions appear favorable for development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form around the middle of next week while
moving westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Berg

[Sciencerocks]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed May 21 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early next
week several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Conditions appear favorable for development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form around the middle of next week while
moving westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu May 22 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is likely to form early next week several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions
appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form around the middle of next week while moving
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


Forecaster Berg

[Kingarabian]

GFS moving up the time frame to May 27. Should be an invest soon.

GFS showing two systems forming together. Could get off to a fast start similar to 2010.

Euro isn't too enthusiastic.

[cycloneye]

NOAA has for EPAC a 50% chance of a below normal season forecast between 12-18 named storms, 5-10 hurricanes and 2-5 major canes.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ndex.shtml

[Sciencerocks]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu May 22 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is likely to form early next week several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions
appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form around the middle of next week while moving
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu May 22 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is likely to form early next week several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions
appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form around the middle of next week while moving
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

GFS moving up the time frame to May 27. Should be an invest soon.

GFS showing two systems forming together. Could get off to a fast start similar to 2010.

Euro isn't too enthusiastic.

By the weekend it will be 90E.

[Sciencerocks]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu May 22 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is likely to form early next week several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions
appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form around the middle of next week while moving
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[Kingarabian]

GFS showing a major while Euro showing nothing.

[cycloneye]

Up to 70%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri May 23 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form early next week several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions
appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form around the middle of next week while
moving westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[cycloneye]

GFS showing a major while Euro showing nothing.

Euro develops it but weaker than GFS.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri May 23 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form early next week several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions
appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form around the middle of next week while
moving westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.


Forecaster Bucci