WPAC: INVEST 97W - Discussion

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.5N 142.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 138.3E, APPROXIMATELY 428 NM
NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION DISPLACED FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 270038Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS
A BROAD AND INCOMPLETE CIRCULATION WITH WINDS OF 15-20 KTS IN THE
NORTHERN SECTOR. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
(20-25 KTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE NOW SHIFTED TO DEPICTING LITTLE TO NO
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SPLIT WITH
GEFS KEEPING THE SYSTEM STATIONARY WHILE ECENS TRACKS IT OFF TO THE
WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

Can't even say if this ensemble is from 97W...12Z