ATL: BARRY - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1939016711241363844

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Bay of Campeche (AL91):
Recent surface observations, satellite imagery, and radar data from
Mexico suggests a well-defined surface circulation is developing
with the area of low pressure located in the Bay of Campeche near
the Mexican coastline. In addition, shower and thunderstorm activity
is also starting to show signs of organization. If these trends
continue, a tropical depression is likely to form, possibly as soon
as this afternoon, in the Bay of Campeche. This system is forecast
to continue moving west-northwestward this weekend towards eastern
Mexico, ultimately moving inland by Monday. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate the system, and
interests in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system. Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required for
portions of the Mexican Gulf coast as soon as this afternoon.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, locally heavy rains are
ongoing over portions of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico, and will
continue during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.



Forecaster Papin

[wxman57]

Weak center will be inland tomorrow evening. Just a brief window for it to be classified as a TD. Of course, it's VERY easy for recon to find an SFMR wind in just about any squall.

[TomballEd]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Bay of Campeche (AL91):
Recent surface observations, satellite imagery, and radar data from
Mexico suggests a well-defined surface circulation is developing
with the area of low pressure located in the Bay of Campeche near
the Mexican coastline. In addition, shower and thunderstorm activity
is also starting to show signs of organization. If these trends
continue, a tropical depression is likely to form, possibly as soon
as this afternoon, in the Bay of Campeche. This system is forecast
to continue moving west-northwestward this weekend towards eastern
Mexico, ultimately moving inland by Monday. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate the system, and
interests in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system. Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required for
portions of the Mexican Gulf coast as soon as this afternoon.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, locally heavy rains are
ongoing over portions of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico, and will
continue during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.



Forecaster Papin

PTC this afternoon judging from the language

[Sciencerocks]

1. Closed LLC with westerly winds on the southern side.
2. Sustain convection.
3. Does it have high enough winds for the nhc to pull the trigger or will they go pt2?

[stormhunter7]

1. Closed LLC with westerly winds on the southern side.
2. Sustain convection.
3. Does it have high enough winds for the nhc to pull the trigger or will they go pt2?

Would expect PTC advisory?

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1939034758136373569

[wxman57]

Looks like a weak, disorganized low but not a TD. Look for PTC advisories next hour.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

RAMMB has TD2

[Sciencerocks]

[JetFuel_SE]

RAMMB has TD2
https://i.imgur.com/BwYYbPF.jpeg

Pretty sure RAMMB shows TD even when it's a PTC, so I wouldn't be so quick to call it TD2

EDIT: It seems it is TD2

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1939053983496089956

[cycloneye]

[mpic]

Two completely different storms, I know, but the first indication of Beryl last year popped up in my Facebook memories this morning. This year I have a generator!

[TallyTracker]

Two completely different storms, I know, but the first indication of Beryl last year popped up in my Facebook memories this morning. This year I have a generator!

After two years and three hurricanes here in the Big Bend, I hope the storms keep coming in weaker than last year. Barry is looking like it will be weaker than an afternoon thunderstorm thankfully.

[Sciencerocks]

[Tireman4]

Two completely different storms, I know, but the first indication of Beryl last year popped up in my Facebook memories this morning. This year I have a generator!

Me too! ( have a generator)

[wxman57]

Ha! I have TWO generators now. Ordered the whole-house generator early last August and it was installed 8 months later in April. I got my portable generator repaired, as it wouldn't start during Beryl due to a bad oil level sensor. I have two generators and two separate transfer switches at my electrical panel. This is no Beryl, thankfully.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not looking so hot, highly sheared. May not make it to Barry.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Logo
Menu
Jun. 29, 2025
13:13 Z
Map: Google Earth Logo Cesium Logo

06/29 12:32 | 08 | 1008mb(e) | 39kts (39kts) | 29kts (32kts)
Raw?
Note: "In. Flt" is max inbound flight level wind. "In. Sfc" is max inbound surface wind, estimated by SFMR or visually. If outbound wind is reported, then highest wind, inbound or outbound from center, is in parenthesis. Winds usually averaged over 10s period. Extrap. MSLPs have (e) next to them. Add missed obs.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 12:56Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306
Tropical Depression: Two (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 08

A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 12:32:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20.13N 95.92W
B. Center Fix Location: 196 statute miles (316 km) to the SE (140°) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, Mexico.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 749m (2,457ft) at 925mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 29kts (33.4mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 1 nautical miles to the ENE (60°) of center fix at 12:32:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 136° at 39kts (From the SE at 44.9mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the ENE (67°) of center fix at 12:30:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 32kts (36.8mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WSW (256°) of center fix at 12:36:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 300° at 22kts (From the WNW at 25.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the WSW (254°) of center fix at 12:35:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 764m (2,507ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 769m (2,523ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 925mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the ENE (67°) from the flight level center at 12:30:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

CLIMBED FROM 025 FT TO 050 FT 1235Z 15 MILES OUT FROM CNTR FIX ON NW LEG DUE TO CONVECTION.