WPAC: WIPHA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/MrJamesCosgrove/status/1946161440747892770

[Hayabusa]

JTWC finally upgrades

09W WIPHA 250718 1200 19.3N 122.5E WPAC 35 991

[cycloneye]

[sasha_B]

First JTWC satellite fix is 3.0/3.0 and remarks note rapid strengthening:

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .70 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT.
BROKE CONSTRAINTS OF MORE THAN 0.5 T# CHANGE PER 6 HOURS DUE TO
RAPID STRENGTHENING. INTENSITY ESTIMATE MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE
DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.

[sasha_B]

As of 18z, the latest manual Dvorak fixes are 3.5 from JTWC and 3.0 from NOAA/OSPO, while ADT is up to 2.9 (constrained) with recent raw T #s between 3.3～3.6. Best Track is 45 knots, 984 hPa. So far, at least, Wipha has been intensifying more quickly than was forecast.

09W WIPHA 250718 1800 19.8N 120.8E WPAC 45 984

[cycloneye]

A. 09W (WIPHA)

B. 18/2330Z

C. 20.3N

D. 119.9E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...POSITION BASED IN PART ON RECENT SSMIS DATA THAT SHOWED A
BANDING EYE AT 37 GHZ. 8/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. PT AGREES. MET
IS ALSO 3.5 BASED ON A 24 HOUR RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND. THE FT IS BASED
ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

18/2210Z 20.3N 119.9E SSMIS


...TURK

[cycloneye]

[mrbagyo]

HKO is sending reconnaissance mission into Wipha. Just read about it from TYboard ( Chinese wx forum)

Checked flightradar and yes they really did