2026 EPAC Season

[Astromanía]

The odds of multiple major landfalling hurricanes in Mexico this season, with the possibility of one making landfall as a Category 5, are increasing.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Last year produced a 20/11/5 season with 127 ACE, and overperformed given the circumstances. I think it's fair to assume we'll surpass that this year, perhaps significantly so.

[Kingarabian]

Interesting to see if we can get anywhere near 2014-2018 ACE levels without a +PDO.

[cycloneye]

The EPAC MDR is on fire.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

April seasonal Euro forecast has about 17 NS and 9 HU with ACE just 90% of average (thru Oct). Kind of underwhelming, seems like it might be lowballing things given this is the most favorable EPAC setup in quite some time. What's the deal?

[cycloneye]

April seasonal Euro forecast has about 17 NS and 9 HU with ACE just 90% of average (thru Oct). Kind of underwhelming, seems like it might be lowballing things given this is the most favorable EPAC setup in quite some time. What's the deal?
https://charts.ecmwf.int/streaming/20260405-1640/8b/ps2png-worker-commands-79cbdf46c5-t5bpd-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-9tjnzyyz.png
https://charts.ecmwf.int/streaming/20260405-1640/99/ps2png-worker-commands-79cbdf46c5-t5bpd-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-wi6scdqq.png
https://charts.ecmwf.int/streaming/20260405-1640/b9/ps2png-worker-commands-79cbdf46c5-t5bpd-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-_858327a.png

Maybe more west activity including CPAC and less Mexico / Baja California landfalls?

[Kingarabian]

Based on present variables (+PMM and a PDO looking to finally flip positive) all signs are pointing towards a hyperactive EPAC season.

I would ignore that Euro forecast.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Based on present variables (+PMM and a PDO looking to finally flip positive) all signs are pointing towards a hyperactive EPAC season.

I would ignore that Euro forecast.

I am more inclined to believe this will be the case.

[Yellow Evan]

Based on present variables (+PMM and a PDO looking to finally flip positive) all signs are pointing towards a hyperactive EPAC season.

I would ignore that Euro forecast.

I am more inclined to believe this will be the case.

I’ll post more thoughts when I have time but my expectations have skyrocketed over the last month.

[cycloneye]

The only place in this basin where the sst's are very cold is at the Gulf of Tehuantepec with the gap wind event.

 https://x.com/NHC_TAFB/status/2041278412497780998

[Ntxw]

Outside of maybe the Indian Ocean, the waters off the southwest coast of Mexico is some of the warmest in the NHEM at 15N. It will be interesting how this will fuel the typical early systems in the eastern part of the basin.

[Astromanía]

The waters in EPAC are pretty hot for tropical development in early April

[Yellow Evan]

Analog average for the EPAC: 215 ACE
Tentative ACE forecast: 200 ACE

March was extremely progressive for tropical warmth in the basin, which is only exceeded by 2015 in the historic database across the month overall. With the incoming forecast of reduced tropical trades, this is unlikely to errode in the forecast range; for example, the ECMWF showing an additional .2C warming in the forecast period. With a strong +PMM apparent and the increased likelihood of a strong or super El Nino in response to a still ongoing strong westerly wind burst near the dateline (that follows a series of weaker westerly wind bursts observed this winter), this represents a setup favorable for a high end hurricane season. The analog set as a whole is cooler at this point in the year across the basin than this year. Of the analog set, the most notable years that featured both a super El Niño and a strong +PMM coexisted are 1957, 1982, and 2015. Sadly 1957 is before the advent of weather satellites. 1982 ended up with 208 ACE while 2015 netted 288 ACE. Both of these are on the high end of the analog set.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/NHC_TAFB/status/2043398057698398310