00z ETA-Major Change to the Left

kba981 · #21 Postby **kba981** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:10 pm

thanks alot :lol:

obxhurricane · #22 Postby **obxhurricane** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:11 pm

GFS in through 84 hours and is looking similar to the the 18Z run.

As mentioned earlier..the ETA is worthless when depicting a cyclone on the edge of it's domain. About as worthless as tits on a bull!

Constructionwx · #23 Postby **Constructionwx** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:12 pm

where are you at in wpb?

I used to live in Lake Clark Shores.

Toni - 574 · #24 Postby **Toni - 574** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:13 pm

JetMaxx wrote:If the GFS takes Isabel into the Bahamas and south Florida on this 00z run, I swear I'll need CPR....get 9-1-1 on the line

JettMaxx, just get you a small brown paper bag and keep it close by. This will help you if you start to hyperventilate. Put the bag up to your mouth and breathe into it slowly. :wink:

Anonymous · #25 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:13 pm

I know where that is at. I live in the park and reserve near riverbridge.

kba981 · #26 Postby **kba981** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:14 pm

royal palm beach as for the model do you think they will shift the track west

Scott_inVA · #27 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:17 pm

Trying to ingest the Eta for "Special Edition" Model Map.
FWIW, I do not run the Eta until near landfall...very near landfall!

Meanwhile...as Derek correctly noted...

It is the Eta...DO NOT use the Eta for tropical systems away from land.
Eta also blew the SFC low (Henri) over VA/NC today.

Scott

Constructionwx · #28 Postby **Constructionwx** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:17 pm

kba981 wrote:royal palm beach as for the model do you think they will shift the track west

cool

no idea

RP

njbeachwx · #29 Postby **njbeachwx** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:24 pm

and good night to all @ 120 hours GFS perhaps ingesting new data still rails Norfolk and me in south jersey. 9 out of 10 runs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml

ameriwx2003 · #30 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:27 pm

Yes ETA at 84 hrs has it at 1004 MB a little off huh??:):) It also was way to far West with Fabian if I recall:):)

ColdFront77 · #31 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:47 pm

The current placement of weather features in the past has indicated ultimately non-moving NNW and N tropical cyclones up the eastern seaboard.

Is there question that the trough off the mid-Atlantic coast hasn't dissipating and/or moved out?

JetMaxx · #32 Postby **JetMaxx** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:48 pm

No need for a brown bag....GFS only came left slightly...instead of NYC, it's now very close to the ECMWF...just east of the Outer Banks then inland over Delmarva and Southern Jersey...

It may not be a major hurricane at landfall....if the GFS is correct and it moves that slowly from east of Hatteras to Delaware. Even big hurricanes canes don't normally maintain themselves as cat 3-4's long over 70-74° sst's (but in reality, Isabel is likely IMO to accelerate toward the coast as Hugo did in 89'...moving at least 25 mph...possibly 30 mph at landfall).

Stormsfury · #33 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 12:06 am

The ETA initializing Isabel as a 1008 mb shallow system ... almost like using the LBAR or the BAMM for a badly sheared system ... no dice ...

The GFS/UKMET/ECMWF are still in the same camp - VA/MD. The Canadian is good up until 72 hours, but the progressiveness of breaking the ridge down (a known bias) is BUNK, especially not this ridge progged to be in the 1030 mb range. NC northward, most likely a Mid-Atlantic hit.

SF

#34 Postby **MWatkins** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 12:21 am

If it's such a bad model...how come it has made the TPC discussions as recently as tonight? You should send that note to the TPC...DOrtt.

First...it isn't a good model in the tropics mainly because there aren't enough observations for the model to resolve gaps in data. The ETA..however...is a huge model for the SPC and they lean on it heavily to forecast tornados (much smaller scale events)...severe weather outbreaks etc. Of course...they have wind profiler data and soundings to feed into the model...

In short...it is a model that does well with lots of observations...it doesn't fill in the gaps well.

Considering the NOAA jet provided the model with additional data it would not have otherwise had...I think it's probably still an outlier solution...but not a solution that should be summarily dismissed because the ETA is a "bad model".

MW

Scott_inVA · #35 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Sun Sep 14, 2003 1:02 am

MWatkins wrote:If it's such a bad model...how come it has made the TPC discussions as recently as tonight? You should send that note to the TPC...DOrtt.

First...it isn't a good model in the tropics mainly because there aren't enough observations for the model to resolve gaps in data. The ETA..however...is a huge model for the SPC and they lean on it heavily to forecast tornados (much smaller scale events)...severe weather outbreaks etc. Of course...they have wind profiler data and soundings to feed into the model...

In short...it is a model that does well with lots of observations...it doesn't fill in the gaps well.

Considering the NOAA jet provided the model with additional data it would not have otherwise had...I think it's probably still an outlier solution...but not a solution that should be summarily dismissed because the ETA is a "bad model".

MW

12Z Eta was bad with SFC Low over VA/NC. 18Z didn't look much better.

I'm not a Eta basher (use it every day)..and you're right SPC leans heavily on Eta and GFS for CONUS SVR. It does border on laughable in the tropics for reasons you indicate. too bad Eta beelines to FL, that will worry some people but if one looks upstream (trof) and ATL Ridging...which is not great on the 0Z, I think TPCs coords are a tad west of being on the money. But Florida isn't a tad :wink:

Scott

00z ETA-Major Change to the Left

thanks

wpb

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