My 2004 prediction...

[Anonymous]

Luis, I did not see your predictions for 2004. Must have missed them.

[Hurricanehink]

Saying the numbers and all is cool, but it isn't quite enough. It is really cool to see when the storms form, where they form, where they hit, how strong, etc. We've got to something for the next 6 months (hopefully less!). I know, I know we can track Indian Ocean storms and West Pac and South Pacific, but it's really fun to track them near us. So, anyone else going to post their predictions?

[Stormsfury]

Saying the numbers and all is cool, but it isn't quite enough. It is really cool to see when the storms form, where they form, where they hit, how strong, etc. We've got to something for the next 6 months (hopefully less!). I know, I know we can track Indian Ocean storms and West Pac and South Pacific, but it's really fun to track them near us. So, anyone else going to post their predictions?

In regards to trying to pinpoint exact formations and dates this far out is pure luck of the draw, or like throwing a bullseye on a dartboard. It's all good for entertainment purposes only, but if one could actually pinpoint the season storm for storm, then I will be placing my email orders for the next Powerball Winning Lottery Numbers.

SF

[Anonymous]

It's all wild card fun. Like how I dartboard each year, and come close sometimes. I forecasted a large Sepember storm in the Guf of Mexico in late 2001/early 2002. It was Gustav which I forecast to sit in the GOM for days, become a category 5 and strike New Orleans. Isidore was almost what I predicted. See, It's just fun until 2004 season begins, so post your wild card predictions!!!

[Hurricanehink]

Come on, anyone else?

[Rainband]

All or most of the factors to help us in our predictions are yet to come. I will say from my limited knowledge that this year will be like last year in many regards. I just hope when a monster forms this year it doesn't impact a major city I do think that that the anomalies in the weather this winter are strange..it's 78 in January Come on experts speak up. Is our "weird weather" going to affect the upcoming tropical season??? anybody?? I also hope those states not directly impacted by last years season don't let their guard down. IT ONLY TAKES ONE STORM.

[Anonymous]

Your right. Andrew... Camille...

[hurricanetrack]

Floydbuster:

Sad that I do not know where Money Island, NC is. I should, I live here (NC).

Anyhow- I am not going to wish a hurricane anywhere, but let's say this, is your prediction about IVAN comes true, I'll be there in person! Heck, it's only 90 minutes for me to get there- if it's near Cape Lookout.

Still, I am not sure where Money Island is.

My own personal opinion is that we will see about an average season next year. Maybe 11 named storms. I think that El Nino will be a bigger factor than thought right now. I have no hard data to prove that- but I would not be at all surprised to see an 11-5-2 season with lots of landfalls. But then again, it does not matter much. As we all say, "it only takes one."

[Anonymous]

Money Island is next to Radio Island off of Morehead City, NC.

[JCT777]

I predict that any prediction I make today about the 2004 hurricane season will be totally off-base. Therefore, I will wait until May to make such a forecast.

[cycloneye]

I predict that any prediction I make today about the 2004 hurricane season will be totally off-base. Therefore, I will wait until May to make such a forecast.

It is better to have all the factors and data and see what is going on in the comming months and a good time to post the forecast numbers and anaylisis will be in 2 months prior to the start of the season and for that reason the annual poll of the forecasts from the members non-experts and the pros will be posted on april 1.

[george_r_1961]

Well if El Nino doesnt develop we may have a repeat of 2003. And Dr Gray did warn us of busier seasons in the future.