I-95 Winter Over (Richmond,Fredericksburg,DC,BWI)

[Anonymous]

5 weeks and counting

[Anonymous]

BigEyedFish,

This is a very risky proposition given historic climatology. If the earlier premature proclamations of winter's demise are of any indication, this one, too, will be swept aside by winter's realities.

Yes history does indicate that once in a very great while DCA does get a big late Feb storm. HOWEVER it does not happen often, temperature Climo alone shows why.

Feb Climo temps for N VA

So N VA EAST OF THE MTS WILL GET A BIG SNOW THIS EARLY MARCH!!!

GET OFF THE CRACK!!! IF YOU THINK WE ARE GOING TO GET ANOTHER SUPERSTORM THIS MARCH THEN YOU ARE FAR, FAR CRAZIER THAN I AM ABOUT ACTUALLY WANTING A THERMOHALINE SHUTDOWN!!!

Wake up folks!!! Wake up!! Get off the CRACK!!! Why don't you look at the CLIMO temps for N VA in early March!!!

Then tell me we're gonna get a lot of snow in Woodbridge in early March!! I'll point you to the nearest hospital, cuz you're full of baloney!! This is N VA EAST OF THE MTS, NOT Jay Peak in the Northeast!!

March Climo temps for N VA

I have something to say and I am going to say it right here and now!! Many of us down here in N VA have been shafted pretty badly. But I am not going to go on listening to all of the pap that we keep on hearing about the Mid Atlantic is going to get a big snow in early March!! We have listened to your hype all winter!! You were right about the cold!! Fine, but have the guts to admit YOU WERE WRONG ABOUT SNOW IN THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WINTER. Because you were.

It's 8 degrees above norms here today, and it will do it again tomorrow. Get off the crack. WINTER SNOWS are finished with N VA east of the mountains this winter. Admit you were wrong. The NE will see major snows this Feb and March. They are far enough north and they have favorable Climo. N VA does NOT. We are already seeing warming temps here. The arctic outbreak that will hit the NE, will only glance off us. Admit this, because it is what will happen to the MA this Feb and March!!!

This winter has been cold but storms have been off and that will continue. Admit it if you can, and please shut off the hype about "This Bad Winter".
People in the MA are sick and tired of it, and so am I.

People, lets move on.


-Jeb

[Anonymous]

Jeb another voice of reason for folks in the MA

[Cheesy_Poofs]

Jeb, no one is on crack. We could see another storm, why are you writing winter off so early?

[Kelly]

BigEyedFish,

This is a very risky proposition given historic climatology. If the earlier premature proclamations of winter's demise are of any indication, this one, too, will be swept aside by winter's realities.

the voice of reason here is what you see above.

[Anonymous]

I guess if we said the entire country would enter into the Ice Age you would be happy.

IMHO, no major winter storms will effect this area of I-95 the rest of this winter.

It's ok to disagree...I do not lose sleep over it

[FLguy]

I guess if we said the entire country would enter into the Ice Age you would be happy.

IMHO, no major winter storms will effect this area of I-95 the rest of this winter.

It's ok to disagree...I do not lose sleep over it

this is the most idiotic forecast i have seen all winter. you come in here and start your i-95 winter is over threads and now, your just wallowing in it like a 5 year old kid. get over it and face facts.

[Anonymous]

So Flguy, master weather guru...

Tell us about the massive snowstorm next week at predicted by the GFS.

[Kelly]

So Flguy, master weather guru...

Tell us about the massive snowstorm next week at predicted by the GFS.

he's probably one of the best long range forecasters in the nation. i really think you should listen to him

[Stormsfury]

BigEyeFish ...

You obviously didn't see last night ECMWF then ...

First, the ECMWF progs the BIG CHILL in the MA/NE ... AND extrapolation past Day 7 would suggest a MAJOR CAD event ... and overrunning moisture ...

[Anonymous]

Kelly, I am listening. If you notice he was the one who's bent out of shape, not me. He doesn't like my prediction, so be it.

[Stormsfury]

And for that matter, I'll comment on the 12z GFS ... after reviewing it ... and the threat is clearly there ... and the fact that the GFS actually shows CAD signature well beyond 84 hours also raises my eyebrows ... and matches the ECMWF to a degree in this timeframe ...

POTENTIAL, POTENTIAL, POTENTIAL ...

[FLguy]

Kelly, I am listening. If you notice he was the one who's bent out of shape, not me. He doesn't like my prediction, so be it.

if you wern't posting uneducated crap about winter being over for the i-95 corridor when, myself and don spend so much time trying to make a CORRECT and EDUCATED assessment of the pattern, i would NOT have a problem.

but then again i dont live in the northeast or mid-atlantic, what do i care, right. maybe if i stopped forecasting for the northeast and mid-atlantic on here, and dedicated my complete attention to the tropics, you would be happy. that way yourself and all the rest of the mindless Unappreciative weenies can figure it out on your own. which i can guarantee you, WILL NOT happen.

what will happen is then all the weenies will feed off of one another like a pack of wolves, and we will then have 50,0000+
threads about the i-95 corridor winter being over, when its really not.

i know, we should create an "I-95 CORRIDOR --- WINTER IS OVER - PISS IN MY SOUP WEENIES THREAD" so that we can all just feed off of one anothers idiot commnets, gut feelings, and un-educated guessing.

[FLguy]

Kelly, I am listening. If you notice he was the one who's bent out of shape, not me. He doesn't like my prediction, so be it.

oh and another thing, dont argue with me, you will NEVER win.

[donsutherland1]

Jeb,

Several points:

1) You wrote: "Then tell me we're gonna get a lot of snow in Woodbridge in early March!! I'll point you to the nearest hospital, cuz you're full of baloney!!"

As you invoked climatology, I'll point out that the climatological normal for March snowfall for Washington, DC is 1.6". So, if let's say 2" falls, that's above average. If 6" or more falls, that's a lot of snow for March.

I expect 6" or more for March so send me to either GWU or Bethesda.

2) You also wrote, "Many of us down here in N VA have been shafted pretty badly." Relative to climatology, no that isn't the case. Relative to other cities, I agree, and I empathize with all snow lovers who have not received as much as they desire.

3) You also wrote, " You were right about the cold!! Fine, but have the guts to admit YOU WERE WRONG ABOUT SNOW IN THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WINTER. Because you were."

<i>Were? </i>

Did two months pass me by without my having noticed it? Let me check my calendar

What a relief! It's still February. Winter is not finished. Therefore, the timeframe in question is not finished.

If February sees below normal snowfall for DCA, I'll certainly mention my error. If March sees below normal snowfall, I'll do the same. I don't think it's a good practice to preverify forecasts.

Also, if we were right about the cold, why not allow us some patience to see if we will prove similarly right with respect to the return of the snow?

Finally, to put things into perspective, here is the data for Baltimore and Washington, DC:

<b>Baltimore:</b>

Normal seasonal snowfall: 18.0"
2003-04 Snowfall to Date: 18.0"

Instances with consecutive winters with 40" of snow and then 20" or more: 5 since Winter 1883-84

<b>Washington, DC:</b>

Normal seasonal snowfall: 15.2"
2003-04 Snowfall to Date: 12.4"

Instances with consecutive winters with 40" of snow and then 20" or more: 3 since Winter 1888-89

In short, both cities are well on their way toward above normal snowfall. If they reach 20", given the historical odds against it in winters following seasons with 40" or more of snow, this would be a pretty special winter in its own right.

[GalvestonDuck]

Oh sheesh, I'm glad it doesn't get like this during the tropical season.

[donsutherland1]

Kelly,

You wrote, "he's [FLguy] probably one of the best long range forecasters in the nation."

I absolutely agree.

[Stormsfury]

So Flguy, master weather guru...

Tell us about the massive snowstorm next week at predicted by the GFS.

he's probably one of the best long range forecasters in the nation. i really think you should listen to him

Agreed 100% with Kelly and Don...

[Anonymous]

Kelly, I am listening. If you notice he was the one who's bent out of shape, not me. He doesn't like my prediction, so be it.

oh and another thing, dont argue with me, you will NEVER win.

Hey FLguy, Find me two winters Back-to-Back that had President's Day Storms in February, right here in Woodbridge. Don't go looking in the last ice age either lol.


There will be no major 24-inch snow in Woodbridge, VA this February or March. Mark my words. These storms only hit us ONCE every FEW YEARS.


I live here in the Mid Atlantic and I do know how many times I have had my heart broken because I worship snow and ice without reservation, all the time. There are so many winters in which we got rain or shafted by snow because we are too far south.

There will be NO major snow here in February or March.

For the record, I am not writing winter off, I am only saying that we will not get any heavy snows here in N VA until December 2004 at the earliest.

There will be no 1993 Superstorm-type winter storm here either.

Winter ends in N VA on March 21. Winter will continue til then and be occasionally cold and rainy but no real big snow here in N VA east of the MTS. We'll see flurries, and maybe an inch or two of slushy snow on the grass but no big snow, There will however be heavy snows in Maryland north and eastward into the NE through early April. Clippers will miss us as well this winter. Winter is NOT OVER in N VA but major accumulating snows in N VA east of the MTS ARE OVER until December 2004.


-Jeb

[cycloneye]

What I haved seen from FLguy is a complete proffesional person who knows all the factors about forecasting and the science of meterology.He posts with all the evidence all about what will happen days ahead and because of those atributes that he has I agree with Kelly,Don and SF 100%.