I'm really starting to dislike.......

[chadtm80]

Still no rain here in west central fl, dixiebreeze. I did see a cloud today, but i have been forced to illegally water my lawn.

shhhhhh.................

LOL! I hear ya. Trusts me I believe the pattern is suppose to switch and send the rain storms to the west coast of the state by this weekend... Its just great to see rain in Florida at all after are long dry spell

[dixiebreeze]

Still no rain here in west central fl, dixiebreeze. I did see a cloud today, but i have been forced to illegally water my lawn.

shhhhhh.................

LOL! I hear ya. Trusts me I believe the pattern is suppose to switch and send the rain storms to the west coast of the state by this weekend... Its just great to see rain in Florida at all after are long dry spell

I sure hope you're right, Chad. This dry spell is depressing.

[jlauderdal]

Happier Days Ahead!!!


WOOOHOOO !!!


000
FXUS62 KTBW 291700
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
100 PM EDT SAT MAY 29 2004

...HOT AND DRY PATTERN MAY SOON BE CHANGING...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...HI PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS AND UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE JUST TO THE S OF THE FA. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO SOAR TO
HIGH 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ONE CHINK IN THE ARMOR IS THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE EACH DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOIST LAYER DEEPENING THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH GFS SHOWING PW'S
AS HI AS 1.77 FOR TBW ON MON...WHICH MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. CLIMO
POPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE AROUND 30...WHEREAS PERSISTENCE ARGUES
FOR 0. WITH RIDGE AXIS TO OUR SOUTH...FEEL BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE NRN FA...SO HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP 20 POPS UP THERE BOTH
SUN AND MON...AND GO WITH A SILENT 10 POP ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM (MON NGT-SAT)...THE HOT...STAGNANT PATTERN WILL FINALLY
BREAK DOWN THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND A TROF SETTLES INTO THE EASTERN U.S. RECENT MODEL RUNS
ARE DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...HOLDING
THE SURFACE RIDGE AT BAY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE...MEANING
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL BE INLAND
AND SOUTH. HOWEVER...A PREFRONTAL TROF MAY SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN FA
ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER FOCUS AREA. DETAILS ARE A BIT
SKETCHY RIGHT NOW BUT A GENERAL DECREASE IN TEMPS AND INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES IS EXPECTED.&&

.MARINE...GREAT BOATING WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. GENERALLY EXPECT WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WITH HIGHER VALUES EACH AFTN AND
EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE PICKS UP. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE
NRN WATERS WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST...BUT STILL JUST
VALUES AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT RH VALUES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S INLAND
LOCATIONS IN THE LATE AFTN AS DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SFC...
BUT DURATIONS BLO 35 PCT WILL BE LIMITED TO 3 HRS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 91 77 92 / 00 10 00 10
FMY 73 93 74 92 / 00 10 00 10
GIF 72 96 71 95 / 00 10 00 10
SRQ 73 89 75 88 / 00 10 00 10
BKV 65 92 67 92 / 00 20 00 20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

RJS/FWA

we heard this all a couple weeks ago and it didnt happen. i am not counting on anything in the extended

[Patrick99]

From the Key West AFD - looks like more ridging, more generally dry SE flow for the Keys and Miami. Not a resounding start to the rainy season - it still hasn't rained a drop in my area:

.SHORT-RANGE FORECAST...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
AFTER A BRIEF WEAKNESS IN THE DEEP LAYERED (1000-500 MB) SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL
ONCE AGAIN BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE SATURDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL (200-300 MB)
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ISLAND
OF CUBA...WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE MODERATE
INSTABILITY...NO DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE
EASTERLY FLOW ARE FORESEEN. IN ADDITION...THE OVERALL STEERING FLOW
DOES NOT INDICATE SOUTH FLORIDA OR THE ISLAND OF CUBA WILL BE A
DIRECT RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AMPLE MOISTURE
(PWAT 1.5 INCHES) AND POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL PROMPT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN EUROPEAN AND MRF NEXT
WEEK...AS MRF RETREATS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND LOWERS HEIGHTS
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA.
CONVERSELY...EUROPEAN HOLDS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH PERSISTENCE IN MIND...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
EUROPEAN AND MAINTAIN A LOW SCATTERED POP AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.