WORST CASE POSSIBILITIES....

[*StOrmsPr*]

In my case Hurricane Luis a cat 4 with 145 mph maximun winds would be a terrible thing for Puerto Rico but at the last moment it deviated to the northwest from the west track it had for almost 1,000 miles and that deviation happened near ST Marteen and I know that in that island things went very bad right msbee?

worst than that another "San Felipe 2" (maybe bit stronger 170-180)but with the track of Georges

[*StOrmsPr*]

In my case Hurricane Luis a cat 4 with 145 mph maximun winds would be a terrible thing for Puerto Rico but at the last moment it deviated to the northwest from the west track it had for almost 1,000 miles and that deviation happened near ST Marteen and I know that in that island things went very bad right msbee?

or an Hortense stalling over us for 24 hours or more

[Anonymous]

A slow moving Cat 5 hurricane moving over southeast Lousiana. Flooding would cause New Orleans to fill like a bowl, with water 30 feet deep in some areas. 25,000-100,000 dead once it's all over.

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf ... one_1.html

[Guest]

I dont think anyone can top mine because of the plain simple fact people/buildings etc in these areas are not at all prepared to deal with such a thing happening and worse yet alot of people honestly believe it never will happen either, unlike people in areas more prone to dealing with these farther to the south. And this does include those living along this part of the coast here who always say it will never happen in part thanks to so many false alarms and as well never having one come this way like that. Only thing comparible perhaps would be a Camille going into New Orleans. (Flooding, loss of life) But even there i bet they have better building codes and such then they do up this way and especially farther in towards the cities that i mentioned above.

Everyone talks about all the what ifs in New Orleans, Miami, Ny City, Houston but atleast they do talk about it UNLIKE the Mid Atlantic. Get my point!

[Anonymous]

I dont think anyone can top mine because of the plain simple fact people/buildings etc in these areas are not at all prepared to deal with such a thing happening and worse yet alot of people honestly believe it never will happen either, unlike people in areas more prone to dealing with these farther to the south. And this does include those living along this part of the coast here who always say it will never happen in part thanks to so many false alarms and as well never having one come this way like that. Only thing comparible perhaps would be a Camille going into New Orleans. (Flooding, loss of life) But even there i bet they have better building codes and such then they do up this way and especially farther in towards the cities that i mentioned above.

Everyone talks about all the what ifs in New Orleans, Miami, Ny City, Houston but atleast they do talk about it UNLIKE the Mid Atlantic. Get my point!

You probably just missed my post but anyway...the winds certainly aren't the problem here in New Orleans. It's the 30 feet of water we're concerned about, and no pumps can come close to preventing that scenario from happening during the big one. We're becoming more vulnerable each year due to erosion.

[Anonymous]

Hurricane Gilbert getting picked up by the trough/Cold Front that was Just North of it and Getting shoved Northeast....This was a real possibillity according to the Tallahassee channel 6 back then.

[Andrew92]

How about Diana in 1984? What if it had just made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane and not stalled and looped prior to landfall?

-Andrew92

[elw]

I dont think anyone can top mine because of the plain simple fact people/buildings etc in these areas are not at all prepared to deal with such a thing happening and worse yet alot of people honestly believe it never will happen either, unlike people in areas more prone to dealing with these farther to the south. And this does include those living along this part of the coast here who always say it will never happen in part thanks to so many false alarms and as well never having one come this way like that. Only thing comparible perhaps would be a Camille going into New Orleans. (Flooding, loss of life) But even there i bet they have better building codes and such then they do up this way and especially farther in towards the cities that i mentioned above.

Everyone talks about all the what ifs in New Orleans, Miami, Ny City, Houston but atleast they do talk about it UNLIKE the Mid Atlantic. Get my point!

Great post! On that track, (up the Chesapeake bay, and into/directly over the Philadelphia area), the storm surge along the coast of New Jersey, Southern Long Island, Long island sound, and New York harbor would be absolutely catastrophic. For those of you guys here who want a "day after tomorrow" type scenario, that's as close as you will get.

What makes it even worse (as you have said) is the poor building construction and relaxed building codes across much of the northeast and Northern Mid Atlantic region. Other problem is evacuations, the Washington DC to New York City corridor is very densely populated, and trying to get all of those people out in a quick and efficient manner would be almost impossible. Basically, it's an emergency manager's worst nightmare.

Inland areas will see significant flooding due to orographic lifting along the leeward side of the Appalachians. It would just be a horrific series of events that I would not want to imagine.

[Lindaloo]

You probably just missed my post but anyway...the winds certainly aren't the problem here in New Orleans. It's the 30 feet of water we're concerned about, and no pumps can come close to preventing that scenario from happening during the big one. We're becoming more vulnerable each year due to erosion.

You are correct. I know that New Orleans has upgraded the pumping stations but they worked over time during Lily. The city flooded even on I-10.

[PTPatrick]

If Camille had taken Betsy's path, ie. a direct New Orleans hit from the southeast. Not sure if there would still be Mardi Gras. Still...if Camille hit today with its original path, or slightly east of that path, it would catastrophic. The entire Mississippi gulf coast is a completely differnt place than it was in 1969. Biloxi is no longer a quiet beach.

Another senario would be a cat 5 direct hit on Galveston, then Houston...or perhaps Andrew hitting 30 miles north of where it did...

[Anonymous]

What if a category 4 hurricane hits Texas near Brownsville within the same hour a Category 4 hits Miami, FL???

[bbadon]

You know ladies and gentlemen this is a real interesting thread, because all of the these worst case scenerios are just that the worst possible thing anyone of us could imagine. The worst case scenerio that I can think of is if things continue like they are going now and these "coastal cities" ie. Corpus, Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur, New Orleans, Gulf Shores, Destin and so on and so keep growing and growing in population. The percentage of people of the growing populations that are actually aware that there is such a thing as a hurricane are not very high. We have come to a point where the office of emergency preparedness people have no way of evacuating this many people in time. Honestly if a Cat 4 or 5 hit anywhere's close to New Orleans thousand and thousands of people will die. Even in the little community I am from with a population of about 600 men, women, and children right on the gulf of mexico in Southwest LA the last evac we had not even 50 percent of the people left and we get tidal flooding from a strong pressure gradient. My point is hurricane awareness is at a historical low as far as I am concerned. Sure "nuts" like us, forgive me if I offend anyone, know whats going on with a tropical system every second. Funny thing I am a member of the office of emergency preparedness for Cameron Parish LA. I just rode to a meeting with our fire chief. On the way up there he said to me isn't there some kind of storm in the gulf. He is the fire chief and he was totally unaware. It was really what brought this to mind, then when I returned home and saw this thread these comments really hit home for me. So all of these worst case scenerios could happen any given day now and most people are unaware. The government is trying there best to put the word but I don't think it is working. I will get off my soap box for the moment.

[HURAKAN]

What if a category 4 hurricane hits Texas near Brownsville within the same hour a Category 4 hits Miami, FL???

DO YOU WANT FEMA TO BECOME CRAZY? In 1992 South Florida was hit by Andrew and less than a month later Hawaii was being hit by Iniki.

[Anonymous]

A cat 4 landfall in NC in Aug, and a cat 2 in Nc in Sep, and a large wet Ts in Nc in Oct

[whereverwx]

what if all these storms formed in the same year?

[bahamaswx]

If. What a useless word! A ticket to an eternal preoccupation with the past - and with how it could have been. It was the way it was. It is the way it is. And that is that.

[Janie34]

What is it Churchill said about the "terrible ifs?"

I think along my stretch of the Gulf Coast the worst case scenario remains a direct (or even an indirect) strike on New Orleans by a major hurricane. A Cat 5 would be unimaginable, yet it can happen, as evidenced by Camille in 1969 and Andrew in 1992.

The population of the coastal regions has skyrocketed. As mentioned earlier, many of these folks are clueless when it comes to the power of a major hurricane. Just because a powerful storm hasn't made a direct hit on a city in 30 years or whatever does not mean that it can't change this year. It will happen again, its only a matter of time. Its always struck me as folly that people are willing to pay a lot of money and put their lives at risk to develop and live on some of these sandy barrier islands along the coast, like Dauphin Island for instance. Basically the island is a giant sand bar.

Its not just that issue, I think people become complacent when a few years go by without a major hurricane making landfall nearby. Therein lies the real danger: complacency, foolish pride, and a failure to plan adequately for an event that will eventually take place.

[stormcrow]

Hurricane Donna today!

[Air Force Met]

I have a good one:

Hurricane Bret never makes the turn back to the west. As you recall, the NHC had forecsated a turn to the west for a couple of days and it never happened. The originally forecasted it into Tampico but because of an upper low in northern Mexico, the storm continued due north.

Here is the scenerio: The upper low does not move off and the 300 mb steering winds continue to be northerly over Bret. There is no Hurricane warning for the Houston area because of the forecasted turn. However, during the night of the 21st and morning of the 22nd, Bret does not turn and since no warnings were issued on the evening of the 21st, a SATURDAY NIGHT, nobody is paying attention. Houstonians awaken mid-Sunday morning to hurricane warnings and a dangerous Category 4 hurricane sitting only 90 miles to their south with no time to evacuate.

Bret continues moving northward and makes landfall near Freeport with winds of 140 MPH. Hosutonians had about 12 hours to evacuate and most are still on the road when it hits.

Now...this is actually what was going through my mind on that night since the turn had yet to occur (and it had been foreacsted to for 2 days and hadn't).

Lucky for Houston the low did sag south and turn Bret to the west.

This is the worst case scenerio for Houston (or for any city)...major storm...no warnings on a weekend night and the population awakens to a dangerous storm that will make landfall in 12 hours. It almost happened.

[vbhoutex]

Way too close to what I thought was going to happen AFM!!! I was very frightened by the possibilites/probabilities of that happening. I didn't see the whole picture though and fortunately the turn did occur!!

And that "Donna today" scenario would make Andrew look like nothing!!!