Update of MJO at EPAC and Atlantic / Update On Sal Atlantic

[cycloneye]

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/AI/200 ... 0AI1_g.jpg

Yes finnally the sal is fading from the strong outbreak in past weeks.It may be a signal that things are more moist and in fact the 12:00 UTC dundee pics shows more moist east atlantic with that squall line that came out last night and where the tropical waves are located in the tropical atlantic.

[chadtm80]

Your right Steve, I havent checked the Sal out in a few days, and it has lessend a bit...


96 Hours ago sal image Below




Current Sal Image Below




Sal Home Page Including 10 day java movie image

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/sal.html

[cycloneye]

Quite a difference those images that show the sal fading.

[chadtm80]

Bump.. MJO spilling back over into the Atlantic

[cycloneye]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/g ... thly_1.gif

Now let'a see how the atlantic basin will react in the last 2 weeks of july to this new area of negative phase of mjo.

[cycloneye]

The update of MJO shows that it is in the north atlantic and in the last 2 weeks of july it will have it's maximun effects so we will see.

[cycloneye]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/g ... thly_1.gif

The Atlantc Basin is in the dry phase of MJO meaning less favorable conditions but the wet phase is poised to spill into the Atlantic just on time for the begginning of the peak of the season by the last 2 weeks of august going into early to mid september so we will see the atlantic heating up by then so in other words be patient because we will see a good share of systems in the comming weeks.In that grafic at link the brown lines represent the dry phase of MJO and the green lines are the wet phase that are at the western pacific now and this factor is the main one that is keeping the Atlantic in check.

[cycloneye]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rkAsal.jpg

No sal around 91L in the SE GOM but plenty of it in the tropical atlantic as you can see at link above.

MJO'S wet phase or favorable is creeping into the EPAC today and then it will spill into the Atlantic then we will see things heat up by the mid to late period of ths month just in time for the start of the peak of the season.But in the meantime before the favorable MJO arrives will Bonnie form in the GOM?

[cycloneye]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/g ... thly_1.gif

Well all of what is happening in the Atlantic basin now as Bonnie and TD#3 haved formed is with not a favorable MJO or dry phase as the brown lines show.Imagine when those green lines or wet MJO spill into the atlantic by mid to late august .

[Hurricanehink]

Wow cycloneye. Didn't Alex also form in the dry phase?

[cycloneye]

Yes Alex formed also in the dry phase.

[MGC]

Three TC's during the dry phase. MJO don't mean squat when it comes to TC formation. sorry................MGC

[cycloneye]

http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/not ... 2/mjo.html

For those who may not know too much about what the MJO factor is go to link above.It is remarkable that with a dry phase of MJO the atlantic has heated up.