Baseball Teams Go 2-3 For Fourth Consecutive Day
In a performance that is redefining monotony, the Chicago Cubs, Kansas City Royals, Florida Marlins, Philadelpia Phillies, and Seattle Mariners combined for another 2-3 record.
The Phillies' loss hurt them the most, with the Atlanta Braves moving into first place in the National League East. Meanwhile, the Seattle Mariners prevailed over the Boston Red Sox in an 11-inning marathon.
After four days, the cumulative record of the teams is 8-12.
Forecasting Weather and Sports
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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donsutherland1
- S2K Analyst
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
- Location: New York
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donsutherland1
- S2K Analyst
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
- Location: New York
Re: Forecasting Weather and Sports
Short-Range Forecasting Contest Comes to Dramatic Conclusion
Cliff-Hanger Ends With Modest Victory
The July 2004 Short-Range Forecasting Challenge went right down to the last move (Seattle’s high temperature, which clinched the outcome by reaching 73° at 5 pm EDT) of the endgame before its outcome was finally decided. With Seattle’s temperature continuing to rise afterward, what had been an ever so narrow margin of difference widened to a more modest 0.16°. Nevertheless, this was the smallest difference since these contests began last month.
Throughout the opening, middle game, and much of the endgame, the closest of battles prevailed. At no point were the leaders ever separated by more than 0.30°:
Rank/Deficit:
Contestant.......Day 1.......Day 2.......Day 3.......Day 4.......Finish
Don..................2/0.20°....1...............T1............2/0.05°...1
DreamZzZz.......T1............3/0.30°.....T1............1.............2/0.16°
Key:
T1=Tied for 1st Place
1=1st Place
2=2nd Place
3=3rd Place
Throughout the duration of the contest, one could see the combination of science and artistry at work. Whether it was Greg’s (Analog96) magnificent 3-degree error at a rainy Philadelphia on July 18 when no other contestant came within less than 6° of its high temperature, Randy’s (DreamZzZz) and FWBHurricane’s dazzling combinations of a pair of perfect forecasts on the opening day of the contest, or Tony’s quiet dominance at Miami, there were plenty of highlights that have made this second monthly Short-Range Forecasting Challenge memorable.
But there were some difficulties, as well. The task of forecasting Seattle’s high temperatures left the contestants sleepless and often gave them fits. There, the average forecasting error came to just over 5.8°. Yet, such a situation likely will not deter the participants from taking on such challenges in the future.
Perhaps, one can borrow from the realm of chess for some further insight. Danish Grandmaster Bent Larsen once observed, “Chess is a beautiful mistress to whom we keep coming back, no matter how many times she rejects us.” The same can certainly be said of forecasting the weather. She is that same “beautiful mistress” for us—truly unforgiving at times but breathtakingly beautiful.
In a few hours, the sports aspect of the contest will also be concluding. There, a multitude of people is likely to share the sweet fruits of victory. Afterward, the fortnight of fun will continue with the Long-Range Forecasting Challenge.
High temperatures for July 20 were:
Chicago: 89°
Kansas City: 93°
Miami: 89°
Philadelphia: 86°
Seattle: 78°
Final Short-Term Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):
Don...........................2.84°
DreamZzZz...............3.00°
Philly_Eagles.............3.12°
FWBHurricane...........3.16°
Analog96..................3.28°
Iceman56.................3.32°
Jshetley1..................3.56°
Tony.........................3.64°
Cliff-Hanger Ends With Modest Victory
The July 2004 Short-Range Forecasting Challenge went right down to the last move (Seattle’s high temperature, which clinched the outcome by reaching 73° at 5 pm EDT) of the endgame before its outcome was finally decided. With Seattle’s temperature continuing to rise afterward, what had been an ever so narrow margin of difference widened to a more modest 0.16°. Nevertheless, this was the smallest difference since these contests began last month.
Throughout the opening, middle game, and much of the endgame, the closest of battles prevailed. At no point were the leaders ever separated by more than 0.30°:
Rank/Deficit:
Contestant.......Day 1.......Day 2.......Day 3.......Day 4.......Finish
Don..................2/0.20°....1...............T1............2/0.05°...1
DreamZzZz.......T1............3/0.30°.....T1............1.............2/0.16°
Key:
T1=Tied for 1st Place
1=1st Place
2=2nd Place
3=3rd Place
Throughout the duration of the contest, one could see the combination of science and artistry at work. Whether it was Greg’s (Analog96) magnificent 3-degree error at a rainy Philadelphia on July 18 when no other contestant came within less than 6° of its high temperature, Randy’s (DreamZzZz) and FWBHurricane’s dazzling combinations of a pair of perfect forecasts on the opening day of the contest, or Tony’s quiet dominance at Miami, there were plenty of highlights that have made this second monthly Short-Range Forecasting Challenge memorable.
But there were some difficulties, as well. The task of forecasting Seattle’s high temperatures left the contestants sleepless and often gave them fits. There, the average forecasting error came to just over 5.8°. Yet, such a situation likely will not deter the participants from taking on such challenges in the future.
Perhaps, one can borrow from the realm of chess for some further insight. Danish Grandmaster Bent Larsen once observed, “Chess is a beautiful mistress to whom we keep coming back, no matter how many times she rejects us.” The same can certainly be said of forecasting the weather. She is that same “beautiful mistress” for us—truly unforgiving at times but breathtakingly beautiful.
In a few hours, the sports aspect of the contest will also be concluding. There, a multitude of people is likely to share the sweet fruits of victory. Afterward, the fortnight of fun will continue with the Long-Range Forecasting Challenge.
High temperatures for July 20 were:
Chicago: 89°
Kansas City: 93°
Miami: 89°
Philadelphia: 86°
Seattle: 78°
Final Short-Term Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):
Don...........................2.84°
DreamZzZz...............3.00°
Philly_Eagles.............3.12°
FWBHurricane...........3.16°
Analog96..................3.28°
Iceman56.................3.32°
Jshetley1..................3.56°
Tony.........................3.64°
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donsutherland1
- S2K Analyst
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
- Location: New York
Re: Forecasting Weather and Sports
Four Share Tie for Baseball Contest
Yesterday proved no different from each of the other four days of this contest. By the time the last pitch was thrown, the last batter retired, and the final score posted, the Contest's teams had again combined for 2 wins and 3 losses.
This does not mean that the games were not without excitement. The highlight performer of the day was the St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols who went 5-5, hit 3 home runs, and drove in 5 runs in the Cardinals 11-8 slugfest victory over the Cubs.
The final combined record of the teams came to 10-15.
This means that four shared the title for the baseball contest, each of whom picked the teams to finish 11-14.
Winners of the Baseball Contest:
Analog96
Don
FWBHurricane
Iceman56
Yesterday proved no different from each of the other four days of this contest. By the time the last pitch was thrown, the last batter retired, and the final score posted, the Contest's teams had again combined for 2 wins and 3 losses.
This does not mean that the games were not without excitement. The highlight performer of the day was the St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols who went 5-5, hit 3 home runs, and drove in 5 runs in the Cardinals 11-8 slugfest victory over the Cubs.
The final combined record of the teams came to 10-15.
This means that four shared the title for the baseball contest, each of whom picked the teams to finish 11-14.
Winners of the Baseball Contest:
Analog96
Don
FWBHurricane
Iceman56
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donsutherland1
- S2K Analyst
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
- Location: New York
Re: Forecasting Weather and Sports
FWBHurricane Blows to Early Lead in Long-Range Contest
Challenge of Seattle Looms Ahead
On the opening day of the grueling Long-Range Forecasting Contest, FWBHurricane lived up to his hurricane status, blowing into an early lead.
However, even as a cooler-than-expected Chicago helped FWBHurricane strengthen to the leadership position, the mountains of forecasting Seattle's high temperatures loom ahead. Just as had been the case in the Short-Range Contest, the final margin of error could be sizable.
Consequently, the marathon now underway is wide open and no lead is safe nor deficit insurmountable.
Tomorrow will likely feature a new high temperature for Chicago and the start of Seattle's climb toward exceptional summer heat. As Seattle's thermometer makes it ascent ever higher toward and into the weekend, forecasts could melt away and be left "in a mangled form" much like matter that is ultimately ejected from dying black holes according to Physicist Stephen Hawking's newly revised thinking.
High temperatures for July 21 were:
Chicago: 85°
Kansas City: 88°
Miami: 91°
Philadelphia: 88°
Seattle: 79°
Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):
FWBHurricane...........2.80°
Don..........................3.60°
DreamZzZz...............4.00°
Philly_Eagles............4.20°
Tony.........................5.20°
Iceman56.................5.40°
Jshetley1..................5.60°
Analog96..................6.00°
Challenge of Seattle Looms Ahead
On the opening day of the grueling Long-Range Forecasting Contest, FWBHurricane lived up to his hurricane status, blowing into an early lead.
However, even as a cooler-than-expected Chicago helped FWBHurricane strengthen to the leadership position, the mountains of forecasting Seattle's high temperatures loom ahead. Just as had been the case in the Short-Range Contest, the final margin of error could be sizable.
Consequently, the marathon now underway is wide open and no lead is safe nor deficit insurmountable.
Tomorrow will likely feature a new high temperature for Chicago and the start of Seattle's climb toward exceptional summer heat. As Seattle's thermometer makes it ascent ever higher toward and into the weekend, forecasts could melt away and be left "in a mangled form" much like matter that is ultimately ejected from dying black holes according to Physicist Stephen Hawking's newly revised thinking.
High temperatures for July 21 were:
Chicago: 85°
Kansas City: 88°
Miami: 91°
Philadelphia: 88°
Seattle: 79°
Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):
FWBHurricane...........2.80°
Don..........................3.60°
DreamZzZz...............4.00°
Philly_Eagles............4.20°
Tony.........................5.20°
Iceman56.................5.40°
Jshetley1..................5.60°
Analog96..................6.00°
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donsutherland1
- S2K Analyst
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
- Location: New York
Re: Forecasting Weather and Sports
Seattle's Temperature Soars, Philly_Eagles Soars With It
FWBHurricane Downgraded
The second day of the Long-Range Forecasting Challenge saw Seattle's thermometer climb to an unseasonably hot 88°. With the PNA continuing to ascend, this heat is just the first breath of what will ultimately be furnace-like readings in the 90s.
As the thermometers rose in the Pacific Northwest, Philly_Eagles soared with them and into the lead. Meanwhile, FWBHurricane's early lead melted away under the increasingly withering heat.
In addition to the return of summer to the Pacific Northwest, Chicago saw its temperature chip in with a 90° reading. However, there cooler air is now on the way and it is entirely possible that this reading could prove to be the Windy City's high for the duration of the Long-Range contest.
However, as noted previously, this last contest is a marathon and the race is merely in its very early stages. Much can still happen before the outcome has been sealed.
High Temperatures for July 22 were:
Chicago: 90°
Kansas City: 87°
Miami: 90°
Philadelphia: 88°
Seattle: 88°
Highest Temperatures for the July 21-31 Period:
Chicago: 90°
Kansas City: 88°
Miami: 91°
Philadelphia: 88°
Seattle: 88°
Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):
Philly_Eagles.............2.60°
Don..........................2.80°
DreamZzZz...............2.80°
Iceman56.................3.40°
Jshetley1.................4.00°
Tony........................4.00°
Analog96..................4.00°
FWBHurricane...........5.20°
FWBHurricane Downgraded
The second day of the Long-Range Forecasting Challenge saw Seattle's thermometer climb to an unseasonably hot 88°. With the PNA continuing to ascend, this heat is just the first breath of what will ultimately be furnace-like readings in the 90s.
As the thermometers rose in the Pacific Northwest, Philly_Eagles soared with them and into the lead. Meanwhile, FWBHurricane's early lead melted away under the increasingly withering heat.
In addition to the return of summer to the Pacific Northwest, Chicago saw its temperature chip in with a 90° reading. However, there cooler air is now on the way and it is entirely possible that this reading could prove to be the Windy City's high for the duration of the Long-Range contest.
However, as noted previously, this last contest is a marathon and the race is merely in its very early stages. Much can still happen before the outcome has been sealed.
High Temperatures for July 22 were:
Chicago: 90°
Kansas City: 87°
Miami: 90°
Philadelphia: 88°
Seattle: 88°
Highest Temperatures for the July 21-31 Period:
Chicago: 90°
Kansas City: 88°
Miami: 91°
Philadelphia: 88°
Seattle: 88°
Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):
Philly_Eagles.............2.60°
Don..........................2.80°
DreamZzZz...............2.80°
Iceman56.................3.40°
Jshetley1.................4.00°
Tony........................4.00°
Analog96..................4.00°
FWBHurricane...........5.20°
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FWBHurricane
- Category 1
- Posts: 495
- Joined: Fri Apr 02, 2004 10:57 pm
- Location: Midlothian/Ovilla, Texas
- Contact:
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donsutherland1
- S2K Analyst
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
- Location: New York
-
donsutherland1
- S2K Analyst
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
- Location: New York
Scores Wilt Under Seattle's Melting Sun
Philly_Eagles' Slim Lead Holds Firm
As cooling breezes spread across Chicago and cooling rains moved into Philadelphia, Seattle experienced nothing but blazing sunshine and withering heat.
Today, the temperature there soared to a near record 96°. This just missed the existing record of 99° set in 1991.
Courtesy of Seattle's exploding thermometer, scores in the Long-Range Forecasting Contest exploded into the 4° error range. However, in spite of the fiery fury of July 23 in Seattle, Philly_Eagles maintained his 0.2° lead. At the same time, Analog96 moved into a three-way tie for second place where quite a logjam now exists.
Whether or not those in second place will reach the promised land of victory that is almost within their grasp or see their dreams shattered will ultimately be revealed by the thermometers, many of which are now taking a refreshing break from summertime heat. Until then, they can only look just ahead and wait for a chance to seize the lead that might not come.
For now, abundant time still remains and the contest goes on.
High Temperatures for July 23 were:
Chicago: 73°
Kansas City: 78°
Miami: 89°
Philadelphia: 83°
Seattle: 96°
Highest Temperatures for the July 21-31 Period:
Chicago: 90°
Kansas City: 88°
Miami: 91°
Philadelphia: 88°
Seattle: 96°
Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):
Philly_Eagles.............4.20°
Analog96..................4.40°
Don..........................4.40°
DreamZzZz...............4.40°
Iceman56.................5.00°
Jshetley1.................5.60°
Tony........................5.60°
FWBHurricane..........6.80°
Philly_Eagles' Slim Lead Holds Firm
As cooling breezes spread across Chicago and cooling rains moved into Philadelphia, Seattle experienced nothing but blazing sunshine and withering heat.
Today, the temperature there soared to a near record 96°. This just missed the existing record of 99° set in 1991.
Courtesy of Seattle's exploding thermometer, scores in the Long-Range Forecasting Contest exploded into the 4° error range. However, in spite of the fiery fury of July 23 in Seattle, Philly_Eagles maintained his 0.2° lead. At the same time, Analog96 moved into a three-way tie for second place where quite a logjam now exists.
Whether or not those in second place will reach the promised land of victory that is almost within their grasp or see their dreams shattered will ultimately be revealed by the thermometers, many of which are now taking a refreshing break from summertime heat. Until then, they can only look just ahead and wait for a chance to seize the lead that might not come.
For now, abundant time still remains and the contest goes on.
High Temperatures for July 23 were:
Chicago: 73°
Kansas City: 78°
Miami: 89°
Philadelphia: 83°
Seattle: 96°
Highest Temperatures for the July 21-31 Period:
Chicago: 90°
Kansas City: 88°
Miami: 91°
Philadelphia: 88°
Seattle: 96°
Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):
Philly_Eagles.............4.20°
Analog96..................4.40°
Don..........................4.40°
DreamZzZz...............4.40°
Iceman56.................5.00°
Jshetley1.................5.60°
Tony........................5.60°
FWBHurricane..........6.80°
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donsutherland1
- S2K Analyst
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
- Location: New York
Seattle Broils for Another Day
Standings Remain Unchanged
Today was a study in contrasts when it came to temperatures.
For another day, Seattle broiled, this time with the thermometer reaching 94°. However, changes are now imminent there in the near-term and more pleasant readings lie ahead. Miami also tasted 90° heat with a high of 91°.
Meanwhile, across Chicago, Kansas City, and Philadelphia, cool breezes more akin to spring defined the day. Chicago started out at a crisp 55° and never broke a sweat as it topped out at barely above 70°. Kansas City dipped to 57° near 1 pm amidst cooling raindrops. Clouds capped Philadelphia's thermometer at 77°.
As a result, despite much action by the thermometers, there was only inaction on the leadership board. As the day concluded, Philly_Eagles retained his extremely narrow lead with a trio remaining hot on his heels.
High Temperatures for July 24 were:
Chicago: 71°
Kansas City: 72°
Miami: 91°
Philadelphia: 77°
Seattle: 94°
Highest Temperatures for the July 21-31 Period:
Chicago: 90°
Kansas City: 88°
Miami: 91°
Philadelphia: 88°
Seattle: 96°
Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):
Philly_Eagles.............4.20°
Analog96..................4.40°
Don..........................4.40°
DreamZzZz...............4.40°
Iceman56.................5.00°
Jshetley1.................5.60°
Tony........................5.60°
FWBHurricane..........6.80°
Standings Remain Unchanged
Today was a study in contrasts when it came to temperatures.
For another day, Seattle broiled, this time with the thermometer reaching 94°. However, changes are now imminent there in the near-term and more pleasant readings lie ahead. Miami also tasted 90° heat with a high of 91°.
Meanwhile, across Chicago, Kansas City, and Philadelphia, cool breezes more akin to spring defined the day. Chicago started out at a crisp 55° and never broke a sweat as it topped out at barely above 70°. Kansas City dipped to 57° near 1 pm amidst cooling raindrops. Clouds capped Philadelphia's thermometer at 77°.
As a result, despite much action by the thermometers, there was only inaction on the leadership board. As the day concluded, Philly_Eagles retained his extremely narrow lead with a trio remaining hot on his heels.
High Temperatures for July 24 were:
Chicago: 71°
Kansas City: 72°
Miami: 91°
Philadelphia: 77°
Seattle: 94°
Highest Temperatures for the July 21-31 Period:
Chicago: 90°
Kansas City: 88°
Miami: 91°
Philadelphia: 88°
Seattle: 96°
Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):
Philly_Eagles.............4.20°
Analog96..................4.40°
Don..........................4.40°
DreamZzZz...............4.40°
Iceman56.................5.00°
Jshetley1.................5.60°
Tony........................5.60°
FWBHurricane..........6.80°
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donsutherland1
- S2K Analyst
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
- Location: New York
Temperatures Ease in Pacific Northwest
Leaders Take Another Day of Rest
The fierce heat that scorched the Pacific Northwest the past few days eased substantially today. By late in the day, Seattle had reached a high of 75°, which was 20° below that of yesterday.
Across Chicago, Philadelphia, and Kansas City, cool temperatures dominated for another day. "Is it really July?" might seem the logical question from residents in those suddenly chilled cities.
The calendar certainly says so. Yet, even as days are long, it seems that they simply are not long enough to give the thermometer sufficient time to reach summery altitudes.
Without any new highs being established today, the leaderboard remained unchanged. As a result, Philly_Eagles moved a step closer to winning the Long-Range Contest.
Still, six days remain. So those chasing Philly_Eagles still have ample time bring down the high-flying eagle.
Corrected High Temperature for July 24 in Seattle: : 95°
High Temperatures for July 25 were:
Chicago: 73°
Kansas City: 75°
Miami: 89°
Philadelphia: 75°
Seattle: 75°
Highest Temperatures for the July 21-31 Period:
Chicago: 90°
Kansas City: 88°
Miami: 91°
Philadelphia: 88°
Seattle: 96°
Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):
Philly_Eagles.............4.20°
Analog96..................4.40°
Don..........................4.40°
DreamZzZz...............4.40°
Iceman56.................5.00°
Jshetley1.................5.60°
Tony........................5.60°
FWBHurricane..........6.80°
Leaders Take Another Day of Rest
The fierce heat that scorched the Pacific Northwest the past few days eased substantially today. By late in the day, Seattle had reached a high of 75°, which was 20° below that of yesterday.
Across Chicago, Philadelphia, and Kansas City, cool temperatures dominated for another day. "Is it really July?" might seem the logical question from residents in those suddenly chilled cities.
The calendar certainly says so. Yet, even as days are long, it seems that they simply are not long enough to give the thermometer sufficient time to reach summery altitudes.
Without any new highs being established today, the leaderboard remained unchanged. As a result, Philly_Eagles moved a step closer to winning the Long-Range Contest.
Still, six days remain. So those chasing Philly_Eagles still have ample time bring down the high-flying eagle.
Corrected High Temperature for July 24 in Seattle: : 95°
High Temperatures for July 25 were:
Chicago: 73°
Kansas City: 75°
Miami: 89°
Philadelphia: 75°
Seattle: 75°
Highest Temperatures for the July 21-31 Period:
Chicago: 90°
Kansas City: 88°
Miami: 91°
Philadelphia: 88°
Seattle: 96°
Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):
Philly_Eagles.............4.20°
Analog96..................4.40°
Don..........................4.40°
DreamZzZz...............4.40°
Iceman56.................5.00°
Jshetley1.................5.60°
Tony........................5.60°
FWBHurricane..........6.80°
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donsutherland1
- S2K Analyst
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
- Location: New York
Miami's Temperature Rises, Analog96's Prospects Fall
Two remain just behind Philly_Eagles
This afternoon, the mercury at Miami soared to 92°. This made today the hottest day there so far during the July 21-31 period.
Although scores were little changed as a result of Miami's new high, Analog96 lost some ground. As a result, Philly_Eagles continues to cling to a 0.2° lead, but there are now just two who are chasing him.
Elsewhere, generally cool to comfortable readings were the rule. Chicago and Kansas City stayed in the pleasant 70s. Philadelphia and Seattle reached or exceeded 80°.
With the Long-Range Forecasting Contest now more than half finished, time is steadily becoming Philly_Eagles ally.
Can he hold on? Stay tuned.
High Temperatures for July 26 were:
Chicago: 74°
Kansas City: 78°
Miami: 92°
Philadelphia: 84°
Seattle: 80°
Highest Temperatures for the July 21-31 Period:
Chicago: 90°
Kansas City: 88°
Miami: 92°
Philadelphia: 88°
Seattle: 96°
Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):
Philly_Eagles.............4.00°
Don..........................4.20°
DreamZzZz...............4.20°
Analog96..................4.60°
Iceman56.................4.80°
Jshetley1.................5.40°
Tony........................5.40°
FWBHurricane..........6.60°
Two remain just behind Philly_Eagles
This afternoon, the mercury at Miami soared to 92°. This made today the hottest day there so far during the July 21-31 period.
Although scores were little changed as a result of Miami's new high, Analog96 lost some ground. As a result, Philly_Eagles continues to cling to a 0.2° lead, but there are now just two who are chasing him.
Elsewhere, generally cool to comfortable readings were the rule. Chicago and Kansas City stayed in the pleasant 70s. Philadelphia and Seattle reached or exceeded 80°.
With the Long-Range Forecasting Contest now more than half finished, time is steadily becoming Philly_Eagles ally.
Can he hold on? Stay tuned.
High Temperatures for July 26 were:
Chicago: 74°
Kansas City: 78°
Miami: 92°
Philadelphia: 84°
Seattle: 80°
Highest Temperatures for the July 21-31 Period:
Chicago: 90°
Kansas City: 88°
Miami: 92°
Philadelphia: 88°
Seattle: 96°
Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):
Philly_Eagles.............4.00°
Don..........................4.20°
DreamZzZz...............4.20°
Analog96..................4.60°
Iceman56.................4.80°
Jshetley1.................5.40°
Tony........................5.40°
FWBHurricane..........6.60°
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donsutherland1
- S2K Analyst
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
- Location: New York
Deluge Sweeps Along Eastern Seaboard
Comfortable Readings Reign for Another Day
As afternoon headed for evening, tremendous rainfall--exceeding several inches in places--moved slowly along the Atlantic coastal plain. By late evening, low-lying areas around Washington, DC, Baltimore, and New York City were under angry streams of running water and veritable ponds that approached a foot deep in places.
Meanwhile farther west, in the Midwest and Central Plains, there was no deluge except for the continuing deluge of unseasonably cool readings. The temperature struggled to 81° in Chicago and just 79° in Kansas City.
At the same time, the Pacific Northwest remained toasty. Seattle experienced yet another day of 80° or better warmth.
However, in spite of all the meteorological action, nothing changed in terms of the highest temperature during the July 21-31 period. Consequently, the leaderboard remained frozen in place, with Philly_Eagles still holding a 0.2° lead.
Corrected High Temperature for July 26 in Seattle: 81°
High Temperatures for July 27 were:
Chicago: 81°
Kansas City: 79°
Miami: 89°
Philadelphia: 82°
Seattle: 83°
Highest Temperatures for the July 21-31 Period:
Chicago: 90°
Kansas City: 88°
Miami: 92°
Philadelphia: 88°
Seattle: 96°
Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):
Philly_Eagles.............4.00°
Don..........................4.20°
DreamZzZz...............4.20°
Analog96..................4.60°
Iceman56.................4.80°
Jshetley1.................5.40°
Tony........................5.40°
FWBHurricane..........6.60°
Comfortable Readings Reign for Another Day
As afternoon headed for evening, tremendous rainfall--exceeding several inches in places--moved slowly along the Atlantic coastal plain. By late evening, low-lying areas around Washington, DC, Baltimore, and New York City were under angry streams of running water and veritable ponds that approached a foot deep in places.
Meanwhile farther west, in the Midwest and Central Plains, there was no deluge except for the continuing deluge of unseasonably cool readings. The temperature struggled to 81° in Chicago and just 79° in Kansas City.
At the same time, the Pacific Northwest remained toasty. Seattle experienced yet another day of 80° or better warmth.
However, in spite of all the meteorological action, nothing changed in terms of the highest temperature during the July 21-31 period. Consequently, the leaderboard remained frozen in place, with Philly_Eagles still holding a 0.2° lead.
Corrected High Temperature for July 26 in Seattle: 81°
High Temperatures for July 27 were:
Chicago: 81°
Kansas City: 79°
Miami: 89°
Philadelphia: 82°
Seattle: 83°
Highest Temperatures for the July 21-31 Period:
Chicago: 90°
Kansas City: 88°
Miami: 92°
Philadelphia: 88°
Seattle: 96°
Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):
Philly_Eagles.............4.00°
Don..........................4.20°
DreamZzZz...............4.20°
Analog96..................4.60°
Iceman56.................4.80°
Jshetley1.................5.40°
Tony........................5.40°
FWBHurricane..........6.60°
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donsutherland1
- S2K Analyst
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
- Location: New York
Contest Goes to the 80s
Standings Locked in Place
The 8th Day of the Long-Range Forecasting Contest saw 80s across the forecast cities. It did not matter whether there was rain (Miami received more than 2" worth of it) or shine (Seattle, Chicago, and Kansas City saw the sun's warm rays), thermometers in all the cities rose into the 80s.
The highest reading was 86° in Miami. The lowest was 81° in Kansas City.
However, 80s are not enough if those seeking to gain the lead are to make up the 0.2° gap. Although this gap appears so small, efforts to close it leave the impression that it is all but insurmountable.
Finally, it does appear that there is a chance that the contest could end with some cities making a run at their highs. Whether that proves to be the case remains to be seen.
For now, Philly_Eagles continues to fly toward the finish line while holding onto the lead.
Corrected High Temperature for July 27 in Seattle: 84°
High Temperatures for July 28 were:
Chicago: 84°
Kansas City: 81°
Miami: 86°
Philadelphia: 82°
Seattle: 85°
Highest Temperatures for the July 21-31 Period:
Chicago: 90°
Kansas City: 88°
Miami: 92°
Philadelphia: 88°
Seattle: 96°
Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):
Philly_Eagles.............4.00°
Don..........................4.20°
DreamZzZz...............4.20°
Analog96..................4.60°
Iceman56.................4.80°
Jshetley1.................5.40°
Tony........................5.40°
FWBHurricane..........6.60°
Standings Locked in Place
The 8th Day of the Long-Range Forecasting Contest saw 80s across the forecast cities. It did not matter whether there was rain (Miami received more than 2" worth of it) or shine (Seattle, Chicago, and Kansas City saw the sun's warm rays), thermometers in all the cities rose into the 80s.
The highest reading was 86° in Miami. The lowest was 81° in Kansas City.
However, 80s are not enough if those seeking to gain the lead are to make up the 0.2° gap. Although this gap appears so small, efforts to close it leave the impression that it is all but insurmountable.
Finally, it does appear that there is a chance that the contest could end with some cities making a run at their highs. Whether that proves to be the case remains to be seen.
For now, Philly_Eagles continues to fly toward the finish line while holding onto the lead.
Corrected High Temperature for July 27 in Seattle: 84°
High Temperatures for July 28 were:
Chicago: 84°
Kansas City: 81°
Miami: 86°
Philadelphia: 82°
Seattle: 85°
Highest Temperatures for the July 21-31 Period:
Chicago: 90°
Kansas City: 88°
Miami: 92°
Philadelphia: 88°
Seattle: 96°
Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):
Philly_Eagles.............4.00°
Don..........................4.20°
DreamZzZz...............4.20°
Analog96..................4.60°
Iceman56.................4.80°
Jshetley1.................5.40°
Tony........................5.40°
FWBHurricane..........6.60°
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donsutherland1
- S2K Analyst
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
- Location: New York
Another Temperate Day
Opportunity to Overtake Philly_Eagles Dwindling
One of the themes coming out of the Democratic National Convention last night and tonight was that "hope is on the way" and that "help is on the way."
When it comes to those aspiring to seize the lead that has been held by Philly_Eagles, the latest readings and computer guidance suggest that "hope" and "help" is not on the way.
Instead of summerlike heat, today saw only temperate and even cool readings in places. High temperatures in the contest cities ranged from 77° in Kansas City to 89° in Miami. Seattle experienced another day of much above normal warmth.
With the contest having moved into its final two days, much must happen if the leadership is to change hands. If one relies on the computer guidance, for those seeking to snatch victory down the stretch, that will prove too much to hope for.
High Temperatures for July 29 were:
Chicago: 83°
Kansas City: 77°
Miami: 89°
Philadelphia: 86°
Seattle: 85°
Highest Temperatures for the July 21-31 Period:
Chicago: 90°
Kansas City: 88°
Miami: 92°
Philadelphia: 88°
Seattle: 96°
Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):
Philly_Eagles.............4.00°
Don..........................4.20°
DreamZzZz...............4.20°
Analog96..................4.60°
Iceman56.................4.80°
Jshetley1.................5.40°
Tony........................5.40°
FWBHurricane..........6.60°
Opportunity to Overtake Philly_Eagles Dwindling
One of the themes coming out of the Democratic National Convention last night and tonight was that "hope is on the way" and that "help is on the way."
When it comes to those aspiring to seize the lead that has been held by Philly_Eagles, the latest readings and computer guidance suggest that "hope" and "help" is not on the way.
Instead of summerlike heat, today saw only temperate and even cool readings in places. High temperatures in the contest cities ranged from 77° in Kansas City to 89° in Miami. Seattle experienced another day of much above normal warmth.
With the contest having moved into its final two days, much must happen if the leadership is to change hands. If one relies on the computer guidance, for those seeking to snatch victory down the stretch, that will prove too much to hope for.
High Temperatures for July 29 were:
Chicago: 83°
Kansas City: 77°
Miami: 89°
Philadelphia: 86°
Seattle: 85°
Highest Temperatures for the July 21-31 Period:
Chicago: 90°
Kansas City: 88°
Miami: 92°
Philadelphia: 88°
Seattle: 96°
Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):
Philly_Eagles.............4.00°
Don..........................4.20°
DreamZzZz...............4.20°
Analog96..................4.60°
Iceman56.................4.80°
Jshetley1.................5.40°
Tony........................5.40°
FWBHurricane..........6.60°
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donsutherland1
- S2K Analyst
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
- Location: New York
The Warmth Begins to Return
Philly Reaches New High But Philly_Eagles Flies High
After it appeared that summer's warmth had been vanquished for good through the end of the Long-Range Forecasting Contest, that heat began to return.
To be sure, Chicago shivered in 72° temperatures and Seattle cooled dramatically to 72° after the past few days of highs in the rarified 80s.
However, Philadelphia saw its temperature rise to 89° and, in the process, established a new high temperature for the duration of the contest. Tomorrow, it is forecast to reach or even exceed 90°.
As a result, Philly_Eagles, who forecast a high of 90° for Philadelphia for the July 21-31 period could see his hometown seal the lead he has maintained through most of the Long-Range Contest.
Tomorrow will also see Kansas City warm dramatically, but it likely won't be enough to change the outcome there. Miami, which could crash the Philly_Eagles' possible victory party, will likely struggle with thunderstorms as a disturbance perhaps begins to take on tropical characteristics.
So all in all, Philly_Eagles appears poised to retain the lead he has nursed day after day.
High Temperatures for July 29 were:
Chicago: 72°
Kansas City: 80°
Miami: 90°
Philadelphia: 89°
Seattle: 72°
Highest Temperatures for the July 21-31 Period:
Chicago: 90°
Kansas City: 88°
Miami: 92°
Philadelphia: 89°
Seattle: 96°
Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):
Philly_Eagles.............3.80°
Don...........................4.00°
Analog96..................4.40°
DreamZzZz...............4.40°
Iceman56.................4.60°
Jshetley1.................5.20°
Tony.........................5.20°
FWBHurricane...........6.80°
Philly Reaches New High But Philly_Eagles Flies High
After it appeared that summer's warmth had been vanquished for good through the end of the Long-Range Forecasting Contest, that heat began to return.
To be sure, Chicago shivered in 72° temperatures and Seattle cooled dramatically to 72° after the past few days of highs in the rarified 80s.
However, Philadelphia saw its temperature rise to 89° and, in the process, established a new high temperature for the duration of the contest. Tomorrow, it is forecast to reach or even exceed 90°.
As a result, Philly_Eagles, who forecast a high of 90° for Philadelphia for the July 21-31 period could see his hometown seal the lead he has maintained through most of the Long-Range Contest.
Tomorrow will also see Kansas City warm dramatically, but it likely won't be enough to change the outcome there. Miami, which could crash the Philly_Eagles' possible victory party, will likely struggle with thunderstorms as a disturbance perhaps begins to take on tropical characteristics.
So all in all, Philly_Eagles appears poised to retain the lead he has nursed day after day.
High Temperatures for July 29 were:
Chicago: 72°
Kansas City: 80°
Miami: 90°
Philadelphia: 89°
Seattle: 72°
Highest Temperatures for the July 21-31 Period:
Chicago: 90°
Kansas City: 88°
Miami: 92°
Philadelphia: 89°
Seattle: 96°
Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):
Philly_Eagles.............3.80°
Don...........................4.00°
Analog96..................4.40°
DreamZzZz...............4.40°
Iceman56.................4.60°
Jshetley1.................5.20°
Tony.........................5.20°
FWBHurricane...........6.80°
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donsutherland1
- S2K Analyst
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
- Location: New York
Forces of Summer Held at Bay for Another Day
Philly_Eagles Reigns in Long-Range Contest
The closing days of July can be among Summer's hottest days. On occasion, blistering sunshine, furnace-like winds, and suffocating humidity can bring plants, animals and people to wilt under Summer's fiery oppression.
During the Long-Range Forecasting Contest, only Seattle produced the kind of temperature inferno that defines Summer's quintessential nature. In Chicago, Kansas City, and Philadelphia, the calendar was all too often stuck on late spring.
As the Long-Range Contest came to a close, there was no great comeback by Summer. Although temperatures rose somewhat in the final days, the fabled heat that boosts temperatures toward the clouds did not materialize.
While it might materialize in August--indeed, the first week of August looks particularly hot for the Central Plains--it will be too late for the contestants who counted on such heat.
Philly_Eagles has now flown across the finish line. Even as his margin of victory proved razor thin at 0.2°, for those who could not reach him, it seemed like the widest of possible chasms.
But now, after this grueling forecasting challenge has ended, it's time to take a rest. Now, instead of the daily entertainment of rising thermometers, one can cast an eye out over the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. The Tropics are finally awakening and TD #1 shows some potential of becoming the season's first tropical storm.
In the meantime, the next forecasting challenge will be over the same timeframe in August.
High Temperatures for July 29 were:
Chicago: 84°
Kansas City: 87°
Miami: 92°
Philadelphia: 89°
Seattle: 82°
Highest Temperatures for the July 21-31 Period:
Chicago: 90°
Kansas City: 88°
Miami: 92°
Philadelphia: 89°
Seattle: 96°
Final Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):
Philly_Eagles.............3.80°
Don..........................4.00°
Analog96..................4.40°
DreamZzZz...............4.40°
Iceman56.................4.60°
Jshetley1.................5.20°
Tony........................5.20°
FWBHurricane..........6.80°
Winners of the July 2004 Forecasting Challenge:
• Short-Range Forecasting Challenge: Don: 2.84° Average Error
• Long-Range Forecasting Challenge: Philly_Eagles: 3.80° Average Error
• Sports Challenge (Baseball): Analog96, Don, FWBHurricane, Iceman56: 0.040 Winning Percentage Error
Many congratulations to all who participated. Great job!
Philly_Eagles Reigns in Long-Range Contest
The closing days of July can be among Summer's hottest days. On occasion, blistering sunshine, furnace-like winds, and suffocating humidity can bring plants, animals and people to wilt under Summer's fiery oppression.
During the Long-Range Forecasting Contest, only Seattle produced the kind of temperature inferno that defines Summer's quintessential nature. In Chicago, Kansas City, and Philadelphia, the calendar was all too often stuck on late spring.
As the Long-Range Contest came to a close, there was no great comeback by Summer. Although temperatures rose somewhat in the final days, the fabled heat that boosts temperatures toward the clouds did not materialize.
While it might materialize in August--indeed, the first week of August looks particularly hot for the Central Plains--it will be too late for the contestants who counted on such heat.
Philly_Eagles has now flown across the finish line. Even as his margin of victory proved razor thin at 0.2°, for those who could not reach him, it seemed like the widest of possible chasms.
But now, after this grueling forecasting challenge has ended, it's time to take a rest. Now, instead of the daily entertainment of rising thermometers, one can cast an eye out over the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. The Tropics are finally awakening and TD #1 shows some potential of becoming the season's first tropical storm.
In the meantime, the next forecasting challenge will be over the same timeframe in August.
High Temperatures for July 29 were:
Chicago: 84°
Kansas City: 87°
Miami: 92°
Philadelphia: 89°
Seattle: 82°
Highest Temperatures for the July 21-31 Period:
Chicago: 90°
Kansas City: 88°
Miami: 92°
Philadelphia: 89°
Seattle: 96°
Final Long-Range Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):
Philly_Eagles.............3.80°
Don..........................4.00°
Analog96..................4.40°
DreamZzZz...............4.40°
Iceman56.................4.60°
Jshetley1.................5.20°
Tony........................5.20°
FWBHurricane..........6.80°
Winners of the July 2004 Forecasting Challenge:
• Short-Range Forecasting Challenge: Don: 2.84° Average Error
• Long-Range Forecasting Challenge: Philly_Eagles: 3.80° Average Error
• Sports Challenge (Baseball): Analog96, Don, FWBHurricane, Iceman56: 0.040 Winning Percentage Error
Many congratulations to all who participated. Great job!
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