frankthetank wrote:USAwx1~i'm in SouthWestern WI...
i've really enjoyed this summer's cool weather, however we have been way to wet for my likes. i guess were probably due for some extreme winter weather considering winter has been absent (so it seems) for the last few years. I think it was the winter of 99-2000 the mississippi river locally had no ice on it in Feb. (not good for ice fishing) and i believe 2001/02 it never dropped below 0--locally... i think the media is blowing this el nino out of whack...its not that impressive, yet....
<img src="http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v118/daisybird/US058VMET-GIFwxg.jpg">
that water off the coast of washington-north and south-is impressive though
The winter of 1999-00 was a La Nina winter though not without It's cold and snowy periods--especially in JAN. Those in the Mid Atlantic (Carolinas) will remember it quite well for sure in regards to the Carolina crusher.
2001-02 was a Solar max winter w/ persistent zonal flow.
The media would try hype a kitchen mop if they had to--in order to get ratings. However this El Nino will stand it's ground for sure, and the US will feel the effects. it will not be significant enough to mitigate the intensity of the cold, but you will still have the enhanced STJ and corresponding storminess. in order words, you get the El Nino related storminess w/o the extreme warmth particular to a Strong warm episode.
And I agree w/ you WRT the SSTA configuration across the NPAC. If that general set-up continues into winter, it should mean a -EPO/+PNA in the means...bolstering the potential for the mean trough position to be located over the central or eastern US.
Right now the NINO 3.4 and 4.0 SSTA are running above average. A majority of the El Nino winters with the greatest SSTA relative to normal--located in this area have been the stuff or dreams for those who enjoy cold and snow. not just in the east but in the Midwest also.