00Z CMC=SOUTH FLORIDA THEN NEW ORLEANS

Lindaloo · #21 Postby **Lindaloo** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 12:08 am

frankthetank wrote:number 1 being?

Hmmm, I didn't ask that question. :oops:

c5Camille · #22 Postby **c5Camille** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 12:09 am

i can't get the models to run... anyone else having
trouble with it?

Lindaloo · #23 Postby **Lindaloo** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 12:10 am

I didn't.

QCWx · #24 Postby **QCWx** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 12:11 am

-edit-

it was old.

mobilebay · #25 Postby **mobilebay** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 12:11 am

BayouVenteux wrote:
mobilebay wrote:
rtd2 wrote:you dont know how long I've been wanting to say that...all I can say now is duck you are about to get a wishcaster label! nice info. and scary!

I'm no Homer. I call it like I see it. If I don't think it will get in the Gulf I will say it. I concider A homer a person that swears every blob is going to hit him.
Ditto Mobile, if Frances gets into the Gulf it will a.) likely be a mere shadow of it's current strength, and b.) probably will skirt the area adjacent to the Florida Big Bend IF it re-emerges at all. There is no way lMHO, as I look at the CONUS WV upstream, that Frances can possibly roll continuously WNW for the length of time it would require to make a New Orleans/SE Louisiana landfall next Tuesday.

FWIW, it's a classic "worst case scenario" synoptic loop, though.

Yeah. Shades of the 1926 hurricane that Chris landsea was saying would be horrible disaster.

yoda · #26 Postby **yoda** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 12:12 am

No, that looks like Frances is somewhere in NC/SC... hmmm...

c5Camille · #27 Postby **c5Camille** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 12:13 am

i got it... YIKES...
lets assume that's not going to happen....
everyone agree?...ok...

cape_escape · #28 Postby **cape_escape** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 12:14 am

Is there any chance of this thing doing a Donna?

yoda · #29 Postby **yoda** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 12:14 am

I agree. Hopefully NOTHING like that happens AT ALL!!

mobilebay · #30 Postby **mobilebay** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 12:14 am

yoda wrote:No, that looks like Frances is somewhere in NC/SC... hmmm...

That is the old run.

QCWx · #31 Postby **QCWx** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 12:18 am

The Canadian is a 6 day model and it's valid at 00Z next Tuesday so I dont see how that could be an old run.

mobilebay · #32 Postby **mobilebay** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 12:21 am

QCWx wrote:The Canadian is a 6 day model and it's valid at 00Z next Tuesday so I dont see how that could be an old run.

This is Thursday 00Z that would make Tuesday 5 days 00X or 120 hours. IT IS OLD.

Guest · #33 Postby **Guest** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 12:23 am

Either way its my opinion that its not gonna go anywhere near New Orleans or up into the Carolinas like that UNLESS she makes a hard turn to the right which i dont think is gonna happen at this point. The ridge says no way and as well the set up in the central GOM says no way as well to those in New Orleans. Plus we are dealing with a large cane which means that it will take a rather large system to give her a good boot in another direction like to the nw and then nne or ne as that model shows above which i see nothing at this point to be able to do that.

QCWx · #34 Postby **QCWx** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 12:27 am

I agree, my run may have been old but i doubt it makes it all the way over there. I like right now somewhere around Cape Caneveral and then on up to Southern Georgia and up the Apps. Flooding in the appalachain mountains will be a big story before Frances is history.

mobilebay · #35 Postby **mobilebay** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 12:28 am

KingOfWeather wrote:Either way its my opinion that its not gonna go anywhere near New Orleans or up into the Carolinas like that UNLESS she makes a hard turn to the right which i dont think is gonna happen at this point. The ridge says no way and as well the set up in the central GOM says no way as well to those in New Orleans. Plus we are dealing with a large cane which means that it will take a rather large system to give her a good boot in another direction like to the nw and then nne or ne as that model shows above which i see nothing at this point to be able to do that.

I know you know more than me about the Tropics. What I'm saying is the model just directed it around the periphery of an amplifiying ridge, then was picked up by the digging trough. I don't see that it was that unreasonable.

Guest · #36 Postby **Guest** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 12:44 am

mobilebay wrote:
KingOfWeather wrote:Either way its my opinion that its not gonna go anywhere near New Orleans or up into the Carolinas like that UNLESS she makes a hard turn to the right which i dont think is gonna happen at this point. The ridge says no way and as well the set up in the central GOM says no way as well to those in New Orleans. Plus we are dealing with a large cane which means that it will take a rather large system to give her a good boot in another direction like to the nw and then nne or ne as that model shows above which i see nothing at this point to be able to do that.

I know you know more than me about the Tropics. What I'm saying is the model just directed it around the periphery of an amplifiying ridge, then was picked up by the digging trough. I don't see that it was that unreasonable.

Yes your right if thats to be the case with the set up that the model shows. However not much else is picking up on that and as well from looking at Sats and other stuff thats going on up-stream nothing suggest a move in that direction as the model indicated. Either way i for one wouldnt let my guard down if i lived in New Orleans because as i have said many of times tonight this cane is large and its affects will be felt a good distance away from the eye. So if it was even to go into the MS or AL coast more then likely those in New Orleans could feel its affects. And no i am not saying that will happen but its still in the cards right now imo. So dont let your guards down yet.

Anyways good point and thanks for pointing that out.

00Z CMC=SOUTH FLORIDA THEN NEW ORLEANS

Hm...

Who is online