0Z GFS....Arrgh!

[LowMug]

Nogaps too...check out the 3 day plot....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WXM ... oplant.gif

MW

3-day plot...who gives a $hit...if that is 3 days from now...we will have areas affected by hurricane winds for almost 24 continuous hours

this puppy needs to move out and the NHC needs to start coming up with some in depth explaining...I trust them a whole lot but it is beginning to thin a bit...the Bahamas are getting smoked and these models are now indicating the entire eastern coast of Florida getting hammered for extended periods of time

[MWatkins]

Yes, but then the CMC takes it across the peninsula slowly towards Alabama, where it sits for over 60 HOURS!!! I hope to God that doesn't happen, becuase that spells flooding like Allison all over again. I think a move up the EC of FL is almost impossible given the shape of the coast...but then again, this does seem to be the season of extreme anomalies. That is probably the worst case scenario, as the storm would have much of its circulation over the Gulf Stream - which is boiling hot that far south.

Yep...that would pretty much rake the coast from Broward county on up to the FL/GA border if it verifies.

Even though the models were tightly clustered...I suppose that doesn't imply they were/are right.

Hey...let's just go back to synoptic meteorology...who's with me?

MW

[Dmetal81]

I didnt mean to say the CMC rides it up the coast, I meant it takes it on a more sw/ne motion through the state instead of East-West like the NHC has been sticking to all day. The east/west path was a little more comforting for us in daytona... things could be changing.


One more question for you MW. Whats your view on the intensity forecast, think she will regain CAT 4?

[yoda]

Yes, but then the CMC takes it across the peninsula slowly towards Alabama, where it sits for over 60 HOURS!!! I hope to God that doesn't happen, becuase that spells flooding like Allison all over again. I think a move up the EC of FL is almost impossible given the shape of the coast...but then again, this does seem to be the season of extreme anomalies. That is probably the worst case scenario, as the storm would have much of its circulation over the Gulf Stream - which is boiling hot that far south.

Yep...that would pretty much rake the coast from Broward county on up to the FL/GA border if it verifies.

Even though the models were tightly clustered...I suppose that doesn't imply they were/are right.

Hey...let's just go back to synoptic meteorology...who's with me?

MW

I am!!! Is this SM 101 though?

[LowMug]

Yes, but then the CMC takes it across the peninsula slowly towards Alabama, where it sits for over 60 HOURS!!! I hope to God that doesn't happen, becuase that spells flooding like Allison all over again. I think a move up the EC of FL is almost impossible given the shape of the coast...but then again, this does seem to be the season of extreme anomalies. That is probably the worst case scenario, as the storm would have much of its circulation over the Gulf Stream - which is boiling hot that far south.

Yep...that would pretty much rake the coast from Broward county on up to the FL/GA border if it verifies.

Even though the models were tightly clustered...I suppose that doesn't imply they were/are right.

Hey...let's just go back to synoptic meteorology...who's with me?

MW

apparentyly not Frances

[yoda]

According to the GFS by 144 hrs.. its up near me.. but the wind barbs are still at 40 mph... this run is certainly interesting.