My Fellow North Cental GOM'ERS

[Janie34]

I have a good friend and some family that live near Meridian and I have a sister who lives near Memphis. If the worst scenario unfolds, I'll have somewhere to go.

[ColdFront77]

I am getting edgy....I see a pattern and I dont like it. I am starting to make a few preps now but I am in the wait and see mode a bump here or there could make a big difference.

We have this pattern and former consistent runs toward, into and along the west coast of Florida, SW, W and NW of Tampa.

The slower Ivan moves the more a NE movement can occur with the upcoming frontal system over the north-central U.S.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I'm not worried...but, I'm watching very closely, for obvious reasons. As WeatherNLU said...we have more reason to be concerned today than yesterday. I still think it will be hitting East of here around Mobile or Pensacola, but, three days ago, I thought for sure it had Tampa all over it---follow the pattern???

[Frank P]

not really worried yet here in Biloxi, posted on Monday Mobile and over to 25 miles east as my early projection for a possible landfall... might end up being a lucky guess after all.... never know, steering currents after 24 hours look kinda screwy.... He's still on a pronounced WNW track

I hate to see anyone get this beast, but I sure hope its not the areas in Florida that have already been hit .... maybe their luck will hold out on this one... no one deserves multiple hits....

[alicia-w]

Well, we might do NO instead if it follows the current path or a little bit east (i.e. from Pensacola east....) Much shorter drive to NO than Nashville and nicer stuff too.

[Innotech]

my mind keeps saying "Lili path, lili path" only I hope that is not the case.
I dont htink it is, but people further east of me need to prepare to run to Greenland.

[Rainband]

One model run doesn't show a trend. I wish it did. The west coast of Florida, any of Florida for that matter doesn't need this. The trof coming down and the eventual turn makes me nervous. I would say Cedar key looks likely at this point

[hurrgrl]

I'm watching and waiting til tomorrow to go get supplies. I've had an uneasy feeling about this one for a while. Nothing scientific. It seems a little like Frederic. everyone saying somewhere else while it made a beeline for Mobile.

[One Eye]

I'm cautiously watching with this more westely movement. Hopefully the trough in the central plains will dig just enough to push it east but the slower movement and even stalling could open a different senario. Ivan "the terrible" is definitely one for the record books.

[KYAGoodbye]

I am in New Orleans. I have been following this crazy thing and have had reservations since Tuesday! I am worried that no one in NO is paying attention, and that there will not be time to evacuate, should that become necessary, although I will be outta here!

[SkeetoBite]

Track


Street Level - Grand Cayman


Street Level - Cuba


Street Level - Key West


Street Level - Tallahassee


Full size images available at http://www.skeetobite.com

[~SirCane]

Being just to the East of Pensacola and just West of Ft. Walton Beach really has me on edge right now. The GFDL has Ivan going into Ft. Walton!!

[HoumaLa]

I think everyone from LA to FL should keep a close eye on this storm. It keeps shifting more and more west

[dhweather]

Grand Isle to the panhandle needs to watch this very carefully.

[alicia-w]

Being just to the East of Pensacola and just West of Ft. Walton Beach really has me on edge right now. The GFDL has Ivan going into Ft. Walton!!

shhhhh!! stop saying that.

[Janie34]

Its probably not news to anyone, but I thought I'd post a snippet from the New Orleans and Mobile forecast discussions so folks could see their thinking on Ivan:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
330 PM CDT SAT SEP 11 2004

.DISCUSSION...IVAN'S TRACK HAS BEEN MOVED SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST. DUE
TO IVAN MOVING MORE WEST TODAY...TPC ADJUSTED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK FARTHER WEST. PLEASE REFER TO DISCUSSIONS AND PRODUCTS FROM
TPC FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON GUIDANCE OF IVAN. EVEN THOUGH IVAN IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...OUR AREA WILL FALL
INTO THE ENVELOPE OF WINDS ON ITS WEST SIDE. IT IS STRONGLY ADVISED
THAT EVERYONE WATCH FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS OF THIS HURRICANE.

NO is probably thinking about the far eastern part of its CWA, that is, Harrison and Jackson counties as the most likely recepient of some effects from Ivan at this point. However, there is clear concern about the current trends to the west.


Mobile:

EXTENDED...INTENSE HURRICANE IVAN STILL ON A WNW TRACK IN THE CARIBBEAN MOVING UP TOWARDS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE TURN NW IS OCCURRING A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TAKEN THE TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE WEST...MOVING THE CENTER OF THE SWATH/PATH NEAR APALACHICOLA FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. ITS STILL TOO EARLY TO GET DETAILED ON EXACTLY WHERE IVAN WILL GO. THE TRACK SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE EVIDENT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS...BY THEN...THE KEY PLAYERS (THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE ARKLATEX...AND THE STRENGTH OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGING) WILL BE BETTER DEFINED. ITS WAIT AND SEE RIGHT NOW. ALL PERSONS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION SHOULD HAVE A PREPAREDNESS PLAN IN PLACE...AND BE READY TO ACT SHOULD A HURRICANE WATCH OR WARNING BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS SOME PART OF OUR REGION IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STAY TUNED.

Looks like Mobile thinks the trough across Texarkana (c'mon, its close enough!) will perhaps play the pivotal role in Ivan's track. In any case, certainly mets all along the coast here are paying very close attention.

[paulorg]

I live in New Olreans and am now getting more anxious by the minute! Our locals here for the most part had pretty much given this one to Florida! Even our radio stations were not giving any news on Ivan at weather breaks! Everyone I know kept saying, "Don't worry. Looks like FL again!" I even became a little less worried. Not any more!
We'd NEVER be able to withstand Ivan. I'm out of here if it looks like he's coming.

Any other thoughts on this??

[melhow]

I am getting edgy....I see a pattern and I dont like it. I am starting to make a few preps now but I am in the wait and see mode a bump here or there could make a big difference.

We have this pattern and former consistent runs toward, into and along the west coast of Florida, SW, W and NW of Tampa.

The slower Ivan moves the more a NE movement can occur with the upcoming frontal system over the north-central U.S.

This slowing of the system and the still very possible NE turn into the coast is EXACTLY what our local mets are emphasising that citizens pay attention in theTampa area over the next few days. I *hope* that the west coast folks of Florida are not thinking that we are all in the clear yet because the models have shifted away from us 72hrs out....

[lahurricanewatcher]

Not really worried, but watching as usual. I am about in the center of the state, so I don't think I would need to evacuate, however, If a cat 5 were to hit to west of us, I would certainly consider going. Tornados and all...

I don't have any predictions about where it will or won't go. I'm watching, and I'm ready.

[baygirl_1]

It's definitely the topic of conversation around here. People have been talking about it at work, at the store, at the doctor's office... just about everywhere I've been the last two days. And I just got back from a wedding where the groom was even talking about it! He's a little worried they're going to come back from their honeymoon to find their house has a tree or two sitting in it.
Anxious times, to say the least.