Your Confidence in the NHC

#21 Postby **Steve** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 1:33 am

Depends. All are good. All are bad.

Steve

Patrick99 · #22 Postby **Patrick99** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 7:21 am

Sometimes I don't like the way the NHC uses the models. It's almost as if with one storm, they'll use the FSU Superensemble as if it was gospel handed straight down from the heavens, but then with another, it's like, oh, but THIS model says this.

cape_escape · #23 Postby **cape_escape** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 7:33 am

NHC, Ortt, MW, Derecho, DT, AirForceMet, I also like Senorpepr and Sanibel's insight very much! I think that each one brings interesting points to the scenerios!

cswitwer · #24 Postby **cswitwer** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 7:50 am

1. NHC for 3 days and under... but I also know they are conservative and I tend to use their forecasts and then add my own 'worst case scenario'
2. Derek Ortt has a great record & I trust him to be honest and not to guess when he doesn't really know
3. Stormsfury-- because he's local to me, is very knowledgable, and is always on top of the little details that change so rapidly

I don't really give any credence to TWC anymore-- they're a bit too entertainment focussed, and I think their coverage sometimes reflects that. I watch their radar images, etc, but don't really pay attention to their forecasts.

P.S. Did anyone notice last week they called themselves "THE Authority for tropical weather" one night?

Aquawind · #25 Postby **Aquawind** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 8:01 am

NHC does an great job...All Forecasters have good and bad forecasts.. :wink:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=45717

banshee · #26 Postby **banshee** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 8:38 am

I go to the NHC for a visual of whats happening. As for detailed information and explainations I come here to see what Derek, AFM, MW and the others who have knowledge have to say.

hookemfins · #27 Postby **hookemfins** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:00 am

One thing about the difference between the NHC, Derick and others is everyone else can stick their knecks out while the NHC has to be conservative. There's a big difference when you are playing around versus having property and lives on the line.

I gaurantee you that if Derick or anyone else works at the NHC, their forecasting opinions WILL change.

HouTXmetro · #28 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:01 am

I have no confidence in the NHC. These are the same people who predicted Earl would be a major Hurricane in the Central Gulf. NOT! They also predicted Claudette would hit Brownsville last year and she hit just Southwest of Freeport, TX. Way, off. Like many people say, leave the Five day forecast out because they really don't have a clue.

Derek Ortt · #29 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:08 am

I actually have been quite constrained this year with the forecasts. For example, and Cangialosi can attest to this,I wanted to on Friday to bring Ivan to the Yucatan, but due to the fact that many were acting based upon these forecasts, making crucial decisions, I had to remain very close to the model guidance, even though I was a couple of hundred miles to the left.

GTStorm · #30 Postby **GTStorm** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:15 am

mf_dolphin wrote:The NHC is still the authority in my book. MWatkins, Derek, DT and several others here on the board are also great sources of information for me. I try and take all their views in and then see how their forecasts are verifying.

Ditto for me on this one. They call it as they see it.

MannyG · #31 Postby **MannyG** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:40 am

I like the NHC from 3 days out. I consider their 5 day out forecast wothless. I like viewing MWatkins, Derek, and others here for information to supplement the NHC forecast and to notice trends that the NHC is out of precaution is slow to report.

Also like Bob Breck in New Orleans who just puts all the scenerios and factors out there and then tells us which scenerio he is leaning to.

opera ghost · #32 Postby **opera ghost** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:41 am

When is comes to making decisions I look at the NHC first, Ortt second, and the general consensus third.

But please please please- don't be a moderate for me Ortt! *grins* I like it when people go out on a limb who can justify it!

Anonymous · #33 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:54 am

IIRC, NHC was forced into providing a 5 day, weren't they? I think I remember them not wanting to provide one, but were arm twisted into it. Anyone remember the details?

#34 Postby **MWatkins** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 10:12 am

sharpenu wrote:IIRC, NHC was forced into providing a 5 day, weren't they? I think I remember them not wanting to provide one, but were arm twisted into it. Anyone remember the details?

The Navy needed 5 days to reposition their ships...so what the Navy wants the Navy gets.

MW

#35 Postby **patsmsg** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 10:27 am

NHC is consistently good in my opinion. They don't hit it exactly, but they are pretty darn good.

From what I've been seeing ... and I know we are not talking models here...but, I put a LOTof stock in the FSU Super Ensemble. For a computer program, it seems to be doing VERY well.

I'm also a new fan of Ortt on this site. I like the explanation he provides along with the accuracy.

SemCtyDPS · #36 Postby **SemCtyDPS** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 10:37 am

So far the consensus seems to be the NHC for 3 day forecasts supplemented by STORM2K forecasters. I totally agree. Interesting no Bastardi fans have joined in yet.

isobar · #37 Postby **isobar** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 10:37 am

cape_escape wrote:NHC, Ortt, MW, Derecho, DT, AirForceMet, I also like Senorpepr and Sanibel's insight very much! I think that each one brings interesting points to the scenerios!

Ditto on these fine choices.

Also like PurdueWx80
Stormsfury - you'll always be my fav! :notworthy:

#38 Postby **MGC** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:16 am

I consider information from multiple sources and make a decision based on that information and knowledge I have aquired in my 48 years. I have my favorites whom I place good confidence in due to their past preformance. I trust the NHC but don't agree with everything they say.....MGC

Your Confidence in the NHC

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