Ivan winds as measured by HIRT

[djti]

is there a board available where the science of hurricanes history can be discussed without the incessant "it killed lots of people so who cares about the specifics" nonsense?

link me.

also....recon didnt measure 125-127 kts very close to landfall...more like 12 hours before...the highest recon near landfall was 115kts or so.....

it is quite obvious from measurements of 100miles out and then inward to the eye that the WINDS supported strong cat 2....the surge built up in the hours preceeding the rapid weakening and caused the visible destruction.

[Scorpion]

Are you kidding me? Look at all the destruction from the wind inland. Frances was a Cat 2 105 mph storm at landfall here. The damage just does not compare. And I am not talking about the storm surge. I am talking about wind damage. Hardly any houses or trailors for that matter got destroyed, only a few shingles off most houses and trees down. We had sustained winds of 85-90 mph and gusts > 100. Up near Ft Pierce it was worse, with sustained > 100. Again, the damage does not compare. A Category 2 hurricane does not do the type of damage Ivan did in the Gulf Coast.

[Ixolib]

Are you kidding me? Look at all the destruction from the wind inland. Frances was a Cat 2 105 mph storm at landfall here. The damage just does not compare. And I am not talking about the storm surge. I am talking about wind damage. Hardly any houses or trailors for that matter got destroyed, only a few shingles off most houses and trees down. We had sustained winds of 85-90 mph and gusts > 100. Up near Ft Pierce it was worse, with sustained > 100. Again, the damage does not compare. A Category 2 hurricane does not do the type of damage Ivan did in the Gulf Coast.

So.... what is the answer? There's got to be an explanation. Have we just not received the official stats??

[bad]

There were winds, unquestionably, between 150 and 200 mph over 500ft above the surface. in gusts. generally, since the convection was more limited and coverage at landfall due to some weakening, the coverage of these stronger winds were limited to areas that were near and under the strongest convection. This was only a 20-40 mile wide section of the hurricane (surface 75+ *possibly* 100+ sustain, 130-160 gust). as compared to while Ivan was in the Caribbean or further south Gulf. (75+mi hurricane force radii, more convection, no land interaction/dry air/ more hostile environments)

[MGC]

Ivan without question was a strong Cat 3 at landfall. I make this statement based on viewing damage. The damage is consistent with damage caused by like intensity storms. Trust me, once the NHC issues its post storm report on Ivan it will be rated Cat 3. It still amazes me the damage water can inflict.....MGC

[Guest]

Mobile did not get the worse. If you look at damage im Western Florida such as brick buildings demolished this was close to cat4 at landfall. Amazing damage. Not quite as strong as charley as I think Charley was around 155 at landfall. I question NHC and bringing Ivan down to 130. Ivan was cat4 at landfall and close to five maybe during the afternoon.

[gratefulnole]

Mobile did not get the worse. If you look at damage im Western Florida such as brick buildings demolished this was close to cat4 at landfall. Amazing damage. Not quite as strong as charley as I think Charley was around 155 at landfall. I question NHC and bringing Ivan down to 130. Ivan was cat4 at landfall and close to five maybe during the afternoon.

I am originally from Pensacola, parents live there, as do many friends and other relatives. I work in the field of mapping for the state of Florida.
From available photos, videos, reports and talking to the few I can in touch with, this is my analysis of teh preliminary damage:
Northwest Florida was in the northeast quadrant. From the point of landfall all the way to Ft. Walton the coast actually goes in a ENE direction. There are many bays protected by barrier islands. With the immense storm surge the barrier islands were submerged and all the lands around the bays essentially became on the gulf suffering full storm surge and full force winds. Though alot people there think they were hit by tornados, I feel since though Ivan was weakening as he hit shore inside the eastern bands there were pockets of category 3/4 winds, especially in areas close to ANY waterbody, but the majority of the area sustained category 2 wind damage. There was definitely category 4 storm surge and much further up the bays into rivers even than anyone thought would ever happen.

The one good thing is recent constrution built to code did amazing well, even gulf-front that were built to withstand surge. Though some inland lowland structures suffered from storm surge damage because they didn't build for it, not expecting it ever to come that far.

[Aslkahuna]

to the damage noted on the high rises, remember that NHC was saying in its advisories and has noted in the past that the winds impacting the upper floors of the high rises can be a full Category higher than the surface winds. The very strongest winds of a hurricane actually occur about 500m above the surface and not lower down.

Steve

[Sean in New Orleans]

Only 89 mph with a gust of 114 mph? Which on top of that the 947 millibars had to be close to the center. So there is no way that this storm was a cat4...It may not have been a cat3! Maybe if that data was on the western eyewall...That this storm could still be a cat3...I'm sorry but if this data was on the Eastern Quad/Northeastern Quad...There is no way that this was stronger then 110 mph cat2.

Sometimes the category isn't what really matters. As has been warned many times over, the danger is the storm surge. That is obviously the reason behind a great deal of the massive destruction. It's not surprising to me, having been to this area of the country countless times. Hurricanes aren't all about wind and rain...there's much more to the destruction they bring (including killer tornadoes and flash floods).

[mobilebay]

Looking at the damage from winds, and Storm Surge this was without a doubt at Least a CaT 3. CAT 2 storms DO NOT cause Storm surges of that proportion, PERIOD. Georges was a strong cat 2 at landfall and did not do near the wind damage nor Storm Surge of Ivan. This entire thread about it being a 2 is ridiculous. The one true thing is it was much weaker on the West Eyewall than most Major Hurricanes. I was in the Western Eyewall for about an hour and a half or so. My guess is we had 70MPH sus., and a few gusts near 85-90. The West side was weaker than most. However that East side was a monster.

[djti]

cats arent defined by surge......i think thats the discussion.....no question that the surge was cat 3 like.

still waiting on any recorded measurements of cat 3 winds (or even close).....damage profiles support strong cat 2/3 outside of surge damage...coupled with the measurements received one would assume cat 2.

this is something that is important in the understanding of surge forecasts and whether they can be reliably estimated based on landfalling windspeeds.....

[mobilebay]

Note . The highest winds during a hurricane are Rarely recorded. This wen't in as a Cat 3, and will remain a Cat 3. trust me.

[djti]

whether the winds were 110mph or 111mph isnt really the important thing.....assuming they were around 110 sustained (liberal based on data) was the surge much greater than one would expect with 110 sustained?

and how long after weakening can a higher surge come in (higher than the canned surge vs windspeed chart).....thats what will be studied with this storm.

[mobilebay]

Are you seeing the same wind damage pics I'm seeing? What was the highest recorded wind speed of Charley? Probably not Cat 4 Strenght. however, the damage pics clearly showed Cat 4 Strength. Their were no observing sites where the strongest winds occured during Ivan.