The fallacy of calling 94L Ivan ...

[Buck]

The "northbound" half didn't leave the part we have now with a circulation of its own and so it would have to develope one along with tropical characteristics while being swept over the Canadian Maritimes by a fast moving front. So, I don't think that was ever a concern.

But I see your point, sort of.

[Buck]

Buck...yes it would...apparently you didn't read what stormsfury posted..

BEGINNING IN 2001...TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING BETWEEN BASINS RETAIN THEIR NAME.

Thanks

Oh, thanks! I missed that. I was going by Cesar, Joan, etc. I hadn't caught that new rule.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Ok MGC, ColdFront...

So In 1995 Tanya should have been Sebastien....

In 1997 Grace should have been Fabian....

In 2000 05 (Beryl) should have been 04....

And Last Year 07 should have been 06...

Right...and I'm Queen Isabella...

We must face the facts...the NHC is going against their history here.

[HurryKane]

...the NHC is going against their history here.

Well, apparently it wasn't without the vigorous type of debate we've seen here:

WTNT44 KNHC 222302
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 67
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

AFTER CONSIDERABLE AND SOMETIMES ANIMATED IN-HOUSE DISCUSSION OF THE
DEMISE OF IVAN...IN THE MIDST OF A LOW-PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS DECIDED TO CALL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN. WHILE DEBATE WILL SURELY
CONTINUE HERE AND ELSEWHERE...THIS DECISION WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE REASONABLE CONTINUITY OBSERVED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE
AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA REACHED THE GULF OF MEXICO IT BEGAN TO
GRADUALLY DEVELOP CONVECTION AND A SURFACE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE
IMAGES...RECON DATA AND BUOYS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM IS ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE CURRENT SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO RELAX A LITTLE...ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REGAIN
TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12 KNOTS. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE UNITED STATES. THE INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECASTS
AS WELL AS THE WIND RADII REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SARGENT TEXAS.

FORECASTER AVILA

[SeaBrz_FL]

What would have happened if the "northbound half" of Ivan regenerated too? Would we have an Ivan I and an Ivan II now?

Hi, Buck -- Thanks, and I should have clarified. Was using the scenario as an possibility for storms in the future. Heck, in the next month maybe the way this season is going!

[yoda]

...the NHC is going against their history here.

Well, apparently it wasn't without the vigorous type of debate we've seen here:

WTNT44 KNHC 222302
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 67
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

AFTER CONSIDERABLE AND SOMETIMES ANIMATED IN-HOUSE DISCUSSION OF THE
DEMISE OF IVAN...IN THE MIDST OF A LOW-PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS DECIDED TO CALL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN. WHILE DEBATE WILL SURELY
CONTINUE HERE AND ELSEWHERE...THIS DECISION WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE REASONABLE CONTINUITY OBSERVED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE
AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA REACHED THE GULF OF MEXICO IT BEGAN TO
GRADUALLY DEVELOP CONVECTION AND A SURFACE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE
IMAGES...RECON DATA AND BUOYS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM IS ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE CURRENT SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO RELAX A LITTLE...ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REGAIN
TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12 KNOTS. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE UNITED STATES. THE INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECASTS
AS WELL AS THE WIND RADII REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SARGENT TEXAS.

FORECASTER AVILA

yep.. very interesting. Oh well. Wonder what they mean by animated...

[Guest]

You gotta wonder sometimes if they ask themselves, will this be good weather ratings...

[crazycajuncane]

It's all about the WEATHER RATINGS!!!

[Brent]

...the NHC is going against their history here.

Well, apparently it wasn't without the vigorous type of debate we've seen here:

WTNT44 KNHC 222302
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 67
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

AFTER CONSIDERABLE AND SOMETIMES ANIMATED IN-HOUSE DISCUSSION OF THE
DEMISE OF IVAN...IN THE MIDST OF A LOW-PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS DECIDED TO CALL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN. WHILE DEBATE WILL SURELY
CONTINUE HERE AND ELSEWHERE...THIS DECISION WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE REASONABLE CONTINUITY OBSERVED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE
AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA REACHED THE GULF OF MEXICO IT BEGAN TO
GRADUALLY DEVELOP CONVECTION AND A SURFACE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE
IMAGES...RECON DATA AND BUOYS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM IS ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE CURRENT SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO RELAX A LITTLE...ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REGAIN
TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12 KNOTS. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE UNITED STATES. THE INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECASTS
AS WELL AS THE WIND RADII REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SARGENT TEXAS.

FORECASTER AVILA

yep.. very interesting. Oh well. Wonder what they mean by animated...

Probably satellite loops.

[jabber]

Whatever.. its Ivan

[Buck]

NHC just wants all the attention don't they.

[Hyperstorm]

Why? Re-read the statement ... this goes against the very grain of what TPC decided with Iris in 2001 ... and the Iris to Manuel happened much quicker ...

SF

They did the same thing with TD 6 and TD 7 from last year.

They probably want to make this system's track historical...that's the ONLY reason I can come up with...

[yoda]

...the NHC is going against their history here.

Well, apparently it wasn't without the vigorous type of debate we've seen here:

WTNT44 KNHC 222302
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 67
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

AFTER CONSIDERABLE AND SOMETIMES ANIMATED IN-HOUSE DISCUSSION OF THE
DEMISE OF IVAN...IN THE MIDST OF A LOW-PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS DECIDED TO CALL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN. WHILE DEBATE WILL SURELY
CONTINUE HERE AND ELSEWHERE...THIS DECISION WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE REASONABLE CONTINUITY OBSERVED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE
AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA REACHED THE GULF OF MEXICO IT BEGAN TO
GRADUALLY DEVELOP CONVECTION AND A SURFACE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE
IMAGES...RECON DATA AND BUOYS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM IS ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE CURRENT SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO RELAX A LITTLE...ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REGAIN
TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12 KNOTS. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE UNITED STATES. THE INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECASTS
AS WELL AS THE WIND RADII REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SARGENT TEXAS.

FORECASTER AVILA

yep.. very interesting. Oh well. Wonder what they mean by animated...

Probably satellite loops.

I don't think so... they were probably throwing punches...

I know what you are saying Brent. I wonder what the loser forecasters at NHC are thinking...

[Hyperstorm]

The low pressure now in the Gulf of Mexico developed from a remnant ("deposit") of Ivan, thus it makes sense to me to get it's former name back.

How can you explain then the development of TD7 last year from a remnant ("deposit") of TD6?...

[HurryKane]

...the NHC is going against their history here.

Well, apparently it wasn't without the vigorous type of debate we've seen here:

WTNT44 KNHC 222302
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 67
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

AFTER CONSIDERABLE AND SOMETIMES ANIMATED IN-HOUSE DISCUSSION OF THE
DEMISE OF IVAN...IN THE MIDST OF A LOW-PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS DECIDED TO CALL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN. WHILE DEBATE WILL SURELY
CONTINUE HERE AND ELSEWHERE...THIS DECISION WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE REASONABLE CONTINUITY OBSERVED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE
AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.

yep.. very interesting. Oh well. Wonder what they mean by animated...

Oh, I'm kinda hoping Stewart took Avila DOWN, baby!

[yoda]

...the NHC is going against their history here.

Well, apparently it wasn't without the vigorous type of debate we've seen here:

WTNT44 KNHC 222302
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 67
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

AFTER CONSIDERABLE AND SOMETIMES ANIMATED IN-HOUSE DISCUSSION OF THE
DEMISE OF IVAN...IN THE MIDST OF A LOW-PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS DECIDED TO CALL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN. WHILE DEBATE WILL SURELY
CONTINUE HERE AND ELSEWHERE...THIS DECISION WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE REASONABLE CONTINUITY OBSERVED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE
AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.

yep.. very interesting. Oh well. Wonder what they mean by animated...

Oh, I'm kinda hoping Stewart took Avila DOWN, baby!

I think so... they were probably throwing punches...

I know what you are saying HurryKane. I wonder what the loser forecasters at NHC are thinking...

Stewart takes down Avila for the count!

[Guest]

Weather has became a sport....We want Ivan clap clap clap We want Ivan clap clap clap We want Ivan clap clap clap. I mean really I remember I went to Myrtal Beach for Labor Day weekend, all the bars I went to had just about every TV on the weather channel. This was also the start of College Football weekend....Wonder how many veiwers they had that week of people that don't live in Florida..

[Hyperstorm]

Probably satellite loops.

Very ingenious, Brent. "Heated" debate will be a good synonym to the word...

[HurryKane]

I think so... they were probably throwing punches...

I know what you are saying HurryKane. I wonder what the loser forecasters at NHC are thinking...

Stewart takes down Avila for the count!

I don't think they're losers, and I don't really care if it's Ivan or Numbskull or whatever they want to call it...

...I was just very amused that they admitted to fighting about the name

[Aimless]

It is just a name.....