Critical Forecast Point #1: Look at 8PM Position Tonight

[MWatkins]

Mike...for us South Floridians that are planning to reinstall our shutters/plywood tomorrow...when should we have all those preparations done tomorrow? Based on your reasoning.

do some tomight like i did and be done no later than noon tomorrow and i think 9 am would be more appropriate.i have been in some nasty leading edge squalls. take it easy everybody and dont kill yourself tomorrow morning rushing..good way to get injured. we are going to have to put em up anyway so why not spread it out.

Yes...as Jlauderdal notes...you will have some time tomorrow morning but I would not wait past noon to get it done.

MW

[wsquared77]

according to another post it's at 74.3. So what does that mean?

[rocknole]

according to another post it's at 74.3. So what does that mean?

It sure looks like he was pretty stinking close to his projection of 74.5. It is now farther west than even the NOGAPS had it at this time. It sure looks like this should result in a shift west in the NHC track, but what do I know!

[wsquared77]

I actually saw his reply on another post...thanks MW!

[Downdraft]

Well looks like the 8 PM position aligns with the global guidance and so far verifies the NHC's track. I think she's coming south and then coming straight up the state. As usual I'm on the wrong side of the eyewall.

[lwg8tr]

Well looks like the 8 PM position aligns with the global guidance and so far verifies the NHC's track. I think she's coming south and then coming straight up the state. As usual I'm on the wrong side of the eyewall.

Actually it's west and the recon shows the 8:00pm coordinates were fudged a little, so the path did'nt verify. Word is with the 11:00pm the NHC will push the track west a bit. Man this islooking like a Frances clone as far as track goes.

[ColdFront77]

Jeanne should not get as far west as Frances did.

[caneman]

Jeanne should not get as far west as Frances did.

Have to disagree with you Tom. Think it will come out around Tampa again.

[calidoug]

"Word is with the 11:00pm the NHC will push the track west a bit. "

What exactly is the source of this "word" ?

[MWatkins]

The track is further west than any of the guidance for 12Z: {see repost from below}

It means the hurricane's center is probably .2 degrees south of that position...not sure how the fix is at 26.5. 26.4 is generous and 26.3 is more likely. I'm sure this will be corrected by the overnight forecaster.

That is still .2 degrees faster than the fastest model guidance.

So while I am not ready to throw out the entire guidance suite...the hurricane is faster than any of the 12Z guidance....and that means the ridge is strong. I do not think a turn is going to happen until this hurricane comes inland.

MW

[LAwxrgal]

ughhhhhh

[wxwatcher2]

Go South Jeanne, Go SOuth.....

[StrongWind]

Go South Jeanne, Go SOuth.....

Go North Jeanne, Go NOrth.....


There, I guess we cancelled each other out and she'll go wherever she wants to

SW