caneman wrote:yoda wrote:caneman wrote:wwicko wrote:yoda wrote:The NHC does not always follow the GFS/GFDL track path.
Um.. did you see the 5 AM Discussion? They said that they would follow a inbetween path... that the GFS was too far right and the NOGAPS was too far left...
This is a strawman arguement. Caneman said, "Why oh why does NHC allow the GFS bias affect the track as much as they do?" Much different statement than you represent.
Yoda, didn't you say Jeanne would turn northwest six or eight hours ago?
Yes, Yoda likes to aruge with me. Unfortunately for he/she they are wrong as NOGAPS has been smack on and Canadian has been there for 2 days to. You've been saying NOGAPS has been wrong for days and also been saying day after day they were too far left. You also kept insisting a Gerorgia/Carolina event. When will you admit you are wrong? I'm sure some of the mets will back me up on NOGAPs. And just because NHC finally goes against GFS at 5:00 AM doesn't al the sudden justify them following that right bias..
One... my name is Matt, so I am a he.
2nd... I stated that the Canadain took Jeanne into JAX.. and I CAN show you that if you wish...
3.) PLEASE show me where I said this was a Carolinas/GA event. I NEVER SAID THAT, and if you can find where I did... I will bow down to you.
4.) I DID SAY that the NOGAPS was a good model... I was only stating that the NOGAPS usually has a leftward bias on the FINAL track. I wasn't saying that the NOGAPS was bad. It IS GOOD in picking trends. Yes, Stormsfury (a pro met) is who I was paraphrasing, and he would agree with you. But he also stated that the NOGAPS is usually too far left with its tracks...
YOu still have not answered me. The CANADIAN for the couple days had just about the same solution as NOGAPS. I don't have to show you any particuliar post to show you've had a right bias in spite of all evidence. And lastly while the NOGAPS may have a left bias they have been far more accurate than the GFS. ANd lastly following all of the GLobal models as an average would have been better than following the Good For Shi#/GFS who is horrible at picking up on strong ridges . My whole argument has been that NHC should follow models with the most recent successes rather than one that has been terrible. I've yet to here an answer from you on this. NOW, I don't have time to argue with you any longer as I'm expecting Hurricane force winds here any minute.
What answer do you WANT? I have answered everything... and as you can see on the 7 am Advisory from NHC.. Jeanne is moving WNW at 12. I do not have a right bias... and I have never said that Jeanne was going into the Carolinas... I DID say that Jeanne was not going into the GOM, and I stand by that remark. If it happens, then I am wrong. That is true that the NOGAPS had predicted the path of Jeanne. I had agreed with you on that. But with most recent successes the ECMWF has been the most consistent this year. Ask any pro met and he/she will say that.
Also, NONE of the models picked up on the strength of the ridge. Yes, some models moved it due west... but ALL of them underestimated the power of the ridge.
I hope you stay safe as you see hurricane force winds.