TEXAS gets COLD the end of NOVEMBER all the way to the GOM

[CaptinCrunch]

Thanksgiving Day,

Now if this where to hold up it could be a repeat of 1993.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_192.shtml

I've only been here since 95. Was that the infamous Cowboys/Dolphins sleet game?

YES IT WAS!!

[PTrackerLA]

I remember that game, it was quite a sight! Anyway we're back to above normal temps for another week along with all the rain y'all are having out in Texas. Doesn't look to cool off until Tuesday or Wednesday of next week and accuweather is only showing the mid 40's for lows. Looks like we'll be waiting until December for our first frost/freeze this year.

[gboudx]

Well if you look at accuweather. They aren't showing anything more than highs in the 50's for us next week, into Thanksgiving. On their home page, they have stories about it getting colder next week. We've already had a week or so stretch of highs in the 50's, so next week wouldn't be any colder than what we've already had, compared to their forecasts. The story and forecasts seem to be out of sync.

[aggiecutter]

Accuweathers forcast on your homepage is an algorithm based on the GFS. Not saying it wont be right, but thats something you need to take into consideration because the GFS past day 5 is a crap shoot.

Having said that, the 10 day EURO continues show a trough over the central US in the means. With the ridge going up over the Caspian, arctic air will get involved in the trough if it hangs around long enough. I think the first of next week we'll see a air mass similiar to what we saw last week over North Texas. It could be a little cooler, though. I dont think any arctic air will get involved until atleast thanksgiving, more than likely a little bit later.

On a side note, Texarkana's date of normal first freeze pasted last week. It's possible we could go the whole month of November without a freeze. I can't ever remember that happening, atleast not the past 30 years. If you took away the clouds, November would be well above normal like October.

[PTrackerLA]

It seems that the past 2 winters have been really bland around here. I recall at least a frost by the end of November on most years but that doesn't look to happen this year. Looks like another winter where it never really gets "cold".

[aggiecutter]

The latest run of the EURO continues to place the mean trough position in the central US. Eventually, the damn will break and the arctic air will come.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

[gboudx]

Either things have changed, or the NWS in DFW isn't ready to talk about it. They got us with highs in the 60's all the way to Thanksgiving. But wet.

[yoda]

Either things have changed, or the NWS in DFW isn't ready to talk about it. They got us with highs in the 60's all the way to Thanksgiving. But wet.

Look at the Buffalo AFD. Better explanation there.

[CaptinCrunch]

Either things have changed, or the NWS in DFW isn't ready to talk about it. They got us with highs in the 60's all the way to Thanksgiving. But wet.

NWS makes it's forecast based on model data, and the models have been changing daily, just this past monday the GFS models had the 850mb temp model at 324 hrs. with the -0- line setting out in the GOM, 2 days later that same line was north of St Louis MO.

My point is that with all the model changes the forecast will most likely change again before Thanksgiving.