ANOTHER midwest winter storm NOV 27-29-- EUS event DEC 1-3?

[wxguy25]

Okay, what meteorological features contribute to the development of southwesterly winds over the GOA and northwesterly winds over the NW Pac?


-Jeb

An area of low pressure. and its not the NW pac Its the NE PAC.

[Wnghs2007]

Okay, what meteorological features contribute to the development of southwesterly winds over the GOA and northwesterly winds over the NW Pac?


-Jeb

An area of low pressure. and its not the NW pac Its the NE PAC.

What would be a prime...Lat/Lon. Area for this low pressure to set up. And what would I look for on the EMCWF or any model for that matter to see if this low was about to set up?

[Anonymous]

Of course the NE Pac. What was I thinking LOL?

-Jeb

[Anonymous]

Okay, what meteorological features contribute to the development of southwesterly winds over the GOA and northwesterly winds over the NW Pac?


-Jeb

An area of low pressure. and its not the NW pac Its the NE PAC.

What would be a prime...Lat/Lon. Area for this low pressure to set up. And what would I look for on the EMCWF or any model for that matter to see if this low was about to set up?

Alright, where do I go to find those models? Cuz I am gonna be watching them like a hawk.

-Jeb

[Wnghs2007]

Okay, what meteorological features contribute to the development of southwesterly winds over the GOA and northwesterly winds over the NW Pac?


-Jeb

An area of low pressure. and its not the NW pac Its the NE PAC.

What would be a prime...Lat/Lon. Area for this low pressure to set up. And what would I look for on the EMCWF or any model for that matter to see if this low was about to set up?

Alright, where do I go to find those models? Cuz I am gonna be watching them like a hawk.

-Jeb

You can make them yourself here. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/make.html

Just scroll down and Choose the 1 to your liking.


Scroll down the bar to The place saying this...

#
Model Forecast Maps
# Composite Overlays
# Loops(Res. Access)
# Contoured Maps


Then make your map

[EDITED]

[Anonymous]

Thanks, Wnghs. I'll do that.

-Jeb

[weatherfan]

So far over all things are going as planed.Alot of people who were predicting an early winter are the ones that have cleary busted.And sould have seen that the over all patterns this year are suggesting a slow progression of the winter pattern meaning a gradual sift not a quick sift like we saw doing the winter of 2002-2003.We are geting there but its going to take time.I agree with HM and Dt that we likey won't completey get there until sometime mid to late January.Once the pattern does become lock its going to be a wild ride and a pattern full of possabltys and that pattern is likey to set in from the period of Mid to late January-Early March in my opinion.Now fluke or two can not be ruled out before that.But the main show appears to me more in the seacond hafe this winter.But all that is depended on when that warm pool moves East world off the west coasts.

[Wnghs2007]

Well I checked the maps for up in the gulf of Alaska and it looks like with a ridge right below it at 50 degrees longitude and a storm system coming thru will help keep a SW flow over it for the next week or so atleast....A good sign for maybe some Warmer Anomilies to pop...I hope.

[weatherlover427]

Good Discussion.

Also HKY_WX has said that the models are showing some kind of high pressure system In the NE that time frame. And that it is possible for some In-situ type Wedge to set up...But its to far out to know for sure. Could get icey Possibly for North NC and Virginia, HKY_WX says.

I can see why he would think that, and it is an interesting scenario. But notice I avoided discussing anything specific WRT the POSSIBLE EUS event (I stress Possible) beyond what my guess on the SLP track is? I did it b/c I’m not sure exactly what’s going to happen yet. And I don’t want to stick my foot in my mouth again like I did w/ the next Midwest event—irresponsibly assuming it was going to be a EUS event based on two runs of the ECMWF/GGEM and UKMET.

Another thing is that damned PAC jet. Until we can get rid of that, and the SSTA setup changes, all hope hinges on the NAO for the MA and NE.

LOL...I know I put that thermal blanket for my pool somewhere....Now lets see...I need 1 about 1,000 miles wide by 1,500 miles long...Hmmm Right position....Now just wait 3 weeks and the water temps should be in the 90's...ROFL in the NE pacific..

Come on now, we need our rain and mountain snows too.

[Guest]

Well from what i have been seing and as well with what we just got my thinking is the same exact areas almost (Maybe even a bit further east into SE.MI and N.OH) will get the same thing with the next system next week. (If thats the one your referring to) The weekend one itself comming up i think will trend colder as well. One must remember that there is now fresh snowpack from about the quad cities east and south which will help to keep temps down a few degrees which for here may make all the difference in the world with precip type and amounts. I am pretty sure areas farther to the north and west as well will get more with this one thanks in part to the Canadian energy dropping down but as well i think Chicago on over to Northern IN and all of MI should do well from this. Places further south towards i70 in IN on over to OH should even start out as some snow before going to rain imo.

And it was about this far out last week the models pulled the west trend with todays system which would have given the areas you say will get the next one next week the heavier snows.

Anyways i am not saying that its a given but it is something to be considered IMHO.

[Wnghs2007]

Well considering todays runs EUS event cancel.

[Wnghs2007]

Im about to get my blow dryer...Row out into a boat, and blow dry the SSTA's up in the GOA...IM Tired of waiting....Ive been waiting since October 5th....When it got to 41 and I thought whooooo....Now two months later its still crap...Im moving to Barrow,Alaska.... I cant wait any longer. Im going to pull my hair out....wxguy25 GIVE ME GOOD NEWS PLEASE!!!!!..

Sorry for being melodramatic but this sucks.

[Guest]

Im about to get my blow dryer...Row out into a boat, and blow dry the SSTA's up in the GOA...IM Tired of waiting....Ive been waiting since October 5th....When it got to 41 and I thought whooooo....Now two months later its still crap...Im moving to Barrow,Alaska.... I cant wait any longer. Im going to pull my hair out....wxguy25 GIVE ME GOOD NEWS PLEASE!!!!!..

Sorry for being melodramatic but this sucks.

Dude calm down. First off its still not even Dec yet .

Secondly you live down in GA and sorry to say your Normall snowfall isnt till Jan/Feb IF THAT (Unless your in the N.GA Mts ofcourse and even there i dont think they recieve much till Dec). Sorry but i would be a little more understanding if you lived in a place that should have seen snow by now BUT NO you dont sorry to say. So relax dude. You WILL get yours. Just gonna have to wait like alot of other people have to.

[Anonymous]

Yep its going to be a while for the Mid Atlantic for accumulating snows. Much as I would like to see the snow, I'll have to wait til late December into January for it.

However, I think this would be a cool theoretical idea. Sure its crazy, but I can dream......

We need to find some devices that can generate a good, steady source of heat then place 'em in the Gulf of Alaska. That would set up a nice warm-water anomaly there and get things moving toward some nice Eastern US snowstorm activity.

Yeah, I sure come up with some hare-brained ideas, but I can always dream while I wait for the snow lol......................

-Jeb

[Anonymous]

Im about to get my blow dryer...Row out into a boat, and blow dry the SSTA's up in the GOA...IM Tired of waiting....Ive been waiting since October 5th....When it got to 41 and I thought whooooo....Now two months later its still crap...Im moving to Barrow,Alaska.... I cant wait any longer. Im going to pull my hair out....wxguy25 GIVE ME GOOD NEWS PLEASE!!!!!..

Sorry for being melodramatic but this sucks.

Dude calm down. First off its still not even Dec yet .

Secondly you live down in GA and sorry to say your Normall snowfall isnt till Jan/Feb IF THAT (Unless your in the N.GA Mts ofcourse and even there i dont think they recieve much till Dec). Sorry but i would be a little more understanding if you lived in a place that should have seen snow by now BUT NO you dont sorry to say. So relax dude. You WILL get yours. Just gonna have to wait like alot of other people have to.

I'd love to see Wnghs' region get a good snow. What we need is a real deep trough and a slow moving nor'easter Miller A type that has a lot of cold air to work with that could track just east of Georgia and give Wnghs2007 his beloved snow. I'd say 20 inches of snow for the Gwinnett/Barrow Line (GBL) would be great.

I think another way for the GBL to get a good snow would be for a PV displacement south, (which would keep N VA super cold) that would suppress storm tracks, may give Wnghs' region a decent shot at a really good snow there. The storm tracks would be suppressed by the south-displaced PV and GA/SC would get in on potentially heavy overrunning snows from a low passing to their south.

Yeah sure I have a LOT to learn about weather, but I feel for folks that love snow!

Believe me, I know that pain. Last winter, when storm after storm missed us in N VA...........

-Jeb

[wxguy25]

Good post, KOW.

The D+10 ECMWF is looks increasingly promising for the EUS w/ the development of a few critical features—but first a word on the EUS event, which im NOT ready to give up on quite yet, and will not until I see what becomes of the phasing event in the Midwest this weekend as it will decide the fait of the POTENTIAL EUS event for DEC 1-3.

Yes im going against the majority of the data. FOR NOW.

As far as the 12z EC is concerned there are NEW and BIG developments.

1. LARGE omega ridge forms over the NATL which sends the NAO negative as the PV dives SE over Hudson Bay. IF the trough can amplify a bit more over SCAND w/ the PV in that position--the NAO will go strongly negative. This is a plausible scenario given the blocking over the pole.

I caution you to the fact that the EC had done this quite a bit during the early FALL in the MR only to see it BUST or flip next run. So we’ll take it one day at a time.

2. Going down the road it is POSSIBLE that the block then retrogrades westward toward Greenland—intensifying the -NAO as the PV slides into the 50-50 low position. IF this happens any s/w coming through the flow would be forced south and you would have a EUS snow threat after DEC 5.

Ill try to post some graphics later illustrating how this would happen.

[Anonymous]

Good post, KOW.

The D+10 ECMWF is looks increasingly promising for the EUS w/ the development of a few critical features—but first a word on the EUS event, which im NOT ready to give up on quite yet, and will not until I see what becomes of the phasing event in the Midwest this weekend as it will decide the fait of the POTENTIAL EUS event for DEC 1-3.

Yes im going against the majority of the data. FOR NOW.

As far as the 12z EC is concerned there are NEW and BIG developments.

1. LARGE omega ridge forms over the NATL which sends the NAO negative as the PV dives SE over Hudson Bay. IF the trough can amplify a bit more over SCAND w/ the PV in that position--the NAO will go strongly negative. This is a plausible scenario given the blocking over the pole.

I caution you to the fact that the EC had done this quite a bit during the early FALL in the MR only to see it BUST or flip next run. So we’ll take it one day at a time.

2. Going down the road it is POSSIBLE that the block then retrogrades westward toward Greenland—intensifying the -NAO as the PV slides into the 50-50 low position. IF this happens any s/w coming through the flow would be forced south and you would have a EUS snow threat after DEC 5.

Ill try to post some graphics later illustrating how this would happen.

Great post, wxguy!


-Jeb

[Wnghs2007]

Im about to get my blow dryer...Row out into a boat, and blow dry the SSTA's up in the GOA...IM Tired of waiting....Ive been waiting since October 5th....When it got to 41 and I thought whooooo....Now two months later its still crap...Im moving to Barrow,Alaska.... I cant wait any longer. Im going to pull my hair out....wxguy25 GIVE ME GOOD NEWS PLEASE!!!!!..

Sorry for being melodramatic but this sucks.

Dude calm down. First off its still not even Dec yet .

Secondly you live down in GA and sorry to say your Normall snowfall isnt till Jan/Feb IF THAT (Unless your in the N.GA Mts ofcourse and even there i dont think they recieve much till Dec). Sorry but i would be a little more understanding if you lived in a place that should have seen snow by now BUT NO you dont sorry to say. So relax dude. You WILL get yours. Just gonna have to wait like alot of other people have to.

I'd love to see Wnghs' region get a good snow. What we need is a real deep trough and a slow moving nor'easter Miller A type that has a lot of cold air to work with that could track just east of Georgia and give Wnghs2007 his beloved snow. I'd say 20 inches of snow for the Gwinnett/Barrow Line (GBL) would be great.

I think another way for the GBL to get a good snow would be for a PV displacement south, (which would keep N VA super cold) that would suppress storm tracks, may give Wnghs' region a decent shot at a really good snow there. The storm tracks would be suppressed by the south-displaced PV and GA/SC would get in on potentially heavy overrunning snows from a low passing to their south.

Yeah sure I have a LOT to learn about weather, but I feel for folks that love snow!

Believe me, I know that pain. Last winter, when storm after storm missed us in N VA...........

-Jeb

I think I am going to have to hug you. Such a beautiful post. I rate it as the best here.

[wxguy25]

Im about to get my <a href="http://www.serverlogic3.com/lm/rtl3.asp?si=11&k=blow%20dryer" onmouseover="window.status='blow dryer'; return true;" onmouseout="window.status=''; return true;">blow dryer</a>...Row out into a boat, and blow dry the SSTA's up in the GOA...IM Tired of waiting....Ive been waiting since October 5th....When it got to 41 and I thought whooooo....Now two months later its still crap...Im moving to Barrow,Alaska.... I cant wait any longer. Im going to pull my hair out....wxguy25 GIVE ME GOOD NEWS PLEASE!!!!!..

Sorry for being melodramatic but this sucks.

Dude calm down. First off its still not even Dec yet .

Secondly you live down in GA and sorry to say your Normall snowfall isnt till Jan/Feb IF THAT (Unless your in the N.GA Mts ofcourse and even there i dont think they recieve much till Dec). Sorry but i would be a little more understanding if you lived in a place that should have seen snow by now BUT NO you dont sorry to say. So relax dude. You WILL get yours. Just gonna have to wait like alot of other people have to.

I'd love to see Wnghs' region get a good snow. What we need is a real deep trough and a slow moving nor'easter Miller A type that has a lot of cold air to work with that could track just east of Georgia and give Wnghs2007 his beloved snow. I'd say 20 inches of snow for the Gwinnett/Barrow Line (GBL) would be great.

I think another way for the GBL to get a good snow would be for a PV displacement south, (which would keep N VA super cold) that would suppress storm tracks, may give Wnghs' region a decent shot at a really good snow there. The storm tracks would be suppressed by the south-displaced PV and GA/SC would get in on potentially heavy overrunning snows from a low passing to their south.

Yeah sure I have a LOT to learn about weather, but I feel for folks that love snow!

Believe me, I know that pain. Last winter, when storm after storm missed us in N VA...........

-Jeb

I think I am going to have to hug you. Such a beautiful post. I rate it as the best here.

I think you both fail to remember that its only THANKSGIVING NOT MARCH

[Wnghs2007]

Im about to get my <a href="http://www.serverlogic3.com/lm/rtl3.asp?si=11&k=blow%20dryer" onmouseover="window.status='blow dryer'; return true;" onmouseout="window.status=''; return true;">blow dryer</a>...Row out into a boat, and blow dry the SSTA's up in the GOA...IM Tired of waiting....Ive been waiting since October 5th....When it got to 41 and I thought whooooo....Now two months later its still crap...Im moving to Barrow,Alaska.... I cant wait any longer. Im going to pull my hair out....wxguy25 GIVE ME GOOD NEWS PLEASE!!!!!..

Sorry for being melodramatic but this sucks.

Shhhhhh....Stop Ruining the moment..ROFL


Dude calm down. First off its still not even Dec yet .

Secondly you live down in GA and sorry to say your Normall snowfall isnt till Jan/Feb IF THAT (Unless your in the N.GA Mts ofcourse and even there i dont think they recieve much till Dec). Sorry but i would be a little more understanding if you lived in a place that should have seen snow by now BUT NO you dont sorry to say. So relax dude. You WILL get yours. Just gonna have to wait like alot of other people have to.

I'd love to see Wnghs' region get a good snow. What we need is a real deep trough and a slow moving nor'easter Miller A type that has a lot of cold air to work with that could track just east of Georgia and give Wnghs2007 his beloved snow. I'd say 20 inches of snow for the Gwinnett/Barrow Line (GBL) would be great.

I think another way for the GBL to get a good snow would be for a PV displacement south, (which would keep N VA super cold) that would suppress storm tracks, may give Wnghs' region a decent shot at a really good snow there. The storm tracks would be suppressed by the south-displaced PV and GA/SC would get in on potentially heavy overrunning snows from a low passing to their south.

Yeah sure I have a LOT to learn about weather, but I feel for folks that love snow!

Believe me, I know that pain. Last winter, when storm after storm missed us in N VA...........

-Jeb

I think I am going to have to hug you. Such a beautiful post. I rate it as the best here.

I think you both fail to remember that its only THANKSGIVING NOT MARCH

Shhhhhh....Stop Ruining the moment..ROFL