Texas NWS mets wake up

[Johnny]

I think the NWS sees all the uncertanties on the table and don't really want to elaborate too much on the ifs, ands and buts. The last thing they want to do is promise people in Texas a white christmas (which just doesn't happen) and it doesn't happen. I think it's just neat that we are even talking about it.

[AggieSpirit]

They might be waking up, but according to some of the guys at the NWS in Ft Worth, 'don't hold your breath' on a white Christmas.

http://www.wfaa.com/sharedcontent/dws/w ... 953e0.html

Haven't had one since 1926 --- the streak to continue?

I wan't to see what my favorite local bow tie wearing weathercaster says though. Here in Dallas we used to know pretty early on before significant cold weather outbreaks or winter weather events back when we had the late great Harold Taft forcasting on KXAS.

[GalvestonDuck]

I have just one thing to say --

*clears throat* Ahem!!


BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!

[CaptinCrunch]

Troy Duncan is my fav Weatherman, only the late Harold Taft was better on his personal forecasting.

[gboudx]

CC, last week you posted that you didn't think we'd get out of the 40's on Monday. Well, you were a day off, but right nonetheless. We aren't gonna get above 45 here today. NWS is forecasting 22 for a low tonight. Dewpoint is now at 16. Longs way for the temp to drop. Good job!

[vbhoutex]

I have just one thing to say --

*clears throat* Ahem!!


BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!

Couldn't have said it better myself Duckie!!!!

[CaptinCrunch]

Thanks,

I try to be as close as I can on forecasting by looking at the models as a idea of what might happen, the rest is just pure gut feeling and the signs that mother mature gives me weeks and even months ahead.

Since this is the first time I have ever giving a Offical Winter Forecast for our reigon, I will give an over all review and compare my forecast to what really happened this winter sometime in March.


P.S.....I still beleive that next week will be a suprise to allot of people here in Texas.

[gboudx]

At this point in time, I hope your "surprise" does not include ice, snow or sleet. Got a long drive to New Orleans for Christmas.

[Portastorm]

After reading many of the afternoon forecast discussions from the NWS offices in Texas (and their complete absence of mentioning next week's massive arctic outbreak), I think it may be time to give them all the Edward John Smith Memorial Award for their colossal lack of awareness.

For those of you who don't know, Edward John Smith is otherwise known as the last (and only) Captain of the Titanic.

"Iceberg? What Iceberg?"

... meanwhile, a classic McFarland Signature pattern shows two days in a row on the reliable European medium-range model. Reliable private industry forecasters are warning their energy clients about next week and beyond and we, the public, get the usual GFS pop and pablum.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

After reading many of the afternoon forecast discussions from the NWS offices in Texas (and their complete absence of mentioning next week's massive arctic outbreak), I think it may be time to give them all the Edward John Smith Memorial Award for their colossal lack of awareness.

For those of you who don't know, Edward John Smith is otherwise known as the last (and only) Captain of the Titanic.

"Iceberg? What Iceberg?"

... meanwhile, a classic McFarland Signature pattern shows two days in a row on the reliable European medium-range model. Reliable private industry forecasters are warning their energy clients about next week and beyond and we, the public, get the usual GFS pop and pablum.

NWS Lubbock knows something is up. Seems to be the only one who is not drinking the GFS Kool Aid today

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
345 PM CST TUE DEC 14 2004

WILL KEEP COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT...WITH CUTOFF LOW EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST NEAR BAJA.
GFS/ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THIS PATTERN WITH GFS A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED. BOTH HAVE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING INTO WESTERN
CANADA MONDAY...WITH SUBSEQUENT DETAILS A BIT MORE SKETCHY. IT IS
LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. CDC SPAGHETTI PLOTS ARE
INDICATING SOME SPREAD WITH THE DETAILS...BUT THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
INDICATING MEAN UPPER TROF RETROGRADING WITH DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW
FROM CANADA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THUS..FORECAST OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME CERTAINLY LOOKS
PLAUSIBLE. TRENDED TEMPS DOWNWARD BASED ON THIS SCENARIO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY PATTERN CONTINUING. THAT COULD CHANGE LATE IN THE
PERIOD DEPENDING ON LOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENERGY IN THIS
NORTHERN STREAM...AND BEHAVIOUR OF SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW. THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIGNAL NOW FOR A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

[Janie34]

"GFS Kool Aid"

[LAwxrgal]

Haven't we learned through hurricane season that the GFS is crap?

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
450 AM CST WED DEC 15 2004

This is the 3rd part of the Discussion.

OTHERWISE...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST THIS MORNING...AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK NOW APPEAR AS IF THEY WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN WHAT WE WERE
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISING. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMFW/GFS AND
CANADIAN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED RETROGRESSION OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING A STOUT
SPLIT-FLOW BLOCK TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST. RESULTANT
DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE MID-UPPER FLOW REGIME FOR DRAWING ARCTIC
AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE U.S. IT APPEARS THAT PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA...FOLLOWING A
STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS AIRMASS
ORIGINATES IN NORTHERN SIBERIA...AND COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
THAN THE CURRENT AIRMASS...BUT MUCH OF THE DEEP COLD ADVECTION
APPEARS TO TAKE PLACE TO THE EAST OF TEXAS. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE
BLOCK DEVELOP A BIT FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED...
THIS AIRMASS WOULD SPILL MORE DIRECTLY INTO TEXAS. WE WILL OFFER A
CONSERVATIVELY WARM FORECAST ATTM...BUT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MAY NEED TO BE COOLED FURTHER IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE...WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RW/TRW ON TUESDAY...
AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW APPROACHES TEXAS FROM THE WEST.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Something tells me the NWS in Texas doesn't know what is about to happen next week. The forecast discussions this afternoon for Texas NWS offices have been short and vague. Usually the afternoon and the early AM discussions are long with some details.

[gboudx]

Something tells me the NWS in Texas doesn't know what is about to happen next week. The forecast discussions this afternoon for Texas NWS offices have been short and vague. Usually the afternoon and the early AM discussions are long with some details.

You're probably right. Maybe CC can confirm, but it seems the late night shift is more liberal with their discussions, while the day shift is conservative. And I don't mean politically.

[CaptinCrunch]

Something tells me the NWS in Texas doesn't know what is about to happen next week. The forecast discussions this afternoon for Texas NWS offices have been short and vague. Usually the afternoon and the early AM discussions are long with some details.

You're probably right. Maybe CC can confirm, but it seems the late night shift is more liberal with their discussions, while the day shift is conservative. And I don't mean politically.

Yes the overnight and early am Discussions are better and more detailed about the forecast.