Lawrence Kansas City ideas for next 10 days

frankthetank · #21 Postby **frankthetank** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 6:25 pm

today wasn't bad across Wisconsin...except for the low single digit temps

sertorius · #22 Postby **sertorius** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 6:50 pm

Frankthetank:

Thanks soo much for the info!!! I'll try it here later on-I was trying to attatch it from a saved filed I have-I saved all the euro images from the 12z run just to look at!!! My temps. forcast is in trouble: I have a south wind and look to have some sun tomorrow: Sun + South Wind in Central Plains= Bye Bye arctic air and welcome to March!!!!!

frankthetank · #23 Postby **frankthetank** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 11:29 pm

put some shorts on and enjoy it

sertorius · #24 Postby **sertorius** » Mon Jan 17, 2005 11:35 pm

I will enjoy it

-I just wish the lakes weren't all frozen (if it is going to be warm) so I could go bass fishing!!!! The ice is not thick enough to ice fish-another 2 days of this cold and they would have been!!!!

sertorius · #25 Postby **sertorius** » Wed Jan 19, 2005 7:06 am

Not trying to take away from the east coast or the Ohio Valley-but, the 0z euro today drops the clipper down to south central Kansas on Saturday-this could be a change for my area. I realize I misread the euro before and this run is prob. bunk, but I swear to you, there is an L in southern Kansas on both slp and 500 maps!!! Could be something to watch as it would change my weekend weather.

frankthetank · #26 Postby **frankthetank** » Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:47 am

I'm not sure how i'm reading this, but looking @ the Euro maps through day 10, to me, seems to be showing a warm trend for most of the country(maybe not the NE)? You can look @ them @

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/banner/page.html

10days out is a long time, but the Euro seems to be everyones choice for the long range (vs. GFS)

The local AFD for my area is saying we might get a decend snowfall Friday, Friday night...we ended up with an inch from last nights clipper...it also allowed us to warm up to 36F by midnight last night! what a change

sertorius · #27 Postby **sertorius** » Wed Jan 19, 2005 11:14 am

Frankthetank:

Amazing how fast it has warmed the past 2 days-amazing what a south west wind will do for you!!! The euro def. has a big warm up nation wide for next week-while the gfs and mrf are colder, it looks to me to be normal stuff. That ridge out west is pretty expansive (makes me real nervous for this summer-one of thos puupies develops in July, I could have 90's-110 degress for about 3 weeks!!!!) and I think you would have to go with the euro. However, the other thing I noticed on the day 10 is a trough beginning to develop out west. But for all intents and purposes, based on the euro run, after this weekend we are in for a pretty March like week around here next week. By the way, I'm still curious about that low placement on the 0z euro this morning-if that were to drop into south central Kansas and then head east, I could see some rain and lite snow-too warm to be all snow, but at least I could see some lite stuuf. The gfs does give me some lt. stuff Saturday night-we shall see. http://www.wright-weather.com/wxp-model/ecmwf/US/ecmwf_h72_500.gif

I came back and attatched this image to see where the low is on Saturday-it then moves North East and tracks across southern Kansas and Central Missouri-a very interesting track for me.

frankthetank · #28 Postby **frankthetank** » Wed Jan 19, 2005 1:12 pm

A friend of mine lived out in Kansas as a kid. He said his family moved to MN because of the summer weather! (there might have been more to it then that..i would think)....

sertorius · #29 Postby **sertorius** » Thu Jan 20, 2005 3:46 pm

Early April day today in Lawrence-our temperature has soared to 58 degrees with a lite south wind-wearing shorts today!!!! (Yes-it is nice, but I do miss the cold-I can wear shorts for a good 6 almost 7 months out of the year!!) Good agreement on the next 4-5 days from all the models. Tomorrow will be a bit cooler (by the eta and gfs) Saturday and Sunday look down right cold by all the models-may struggle to get out of the 20's on Sunday-then nice warm up Monday-Wednesday and possibly Thursday (Todays gfs has really backed off the cold shot next week) Only thing that might be different is that I would not be surprised if we squeeze out some lt. rain or flurries Saturday as the clipper passes by-the eta is showing some lt. precip. scattered about for Saturday and the 0z euro has the low comming down just west of me http://www.wright-weather.com/wxp-model ... 48_500.gif but over all, this area will be dry thru at least next Thursday. It is late next week where I think things may get interesting as the gfs,mrf,euro and gem are showing a low comming in from the west. But anyway, kind of a roller coaster ride with temps. here the next week with little or no precip. good luck to everyone east of me-By radar, it looks as though the Ohio Valley is seeing some nice snow today-I hope this storm comes together for you!!

frankthetank · #30 Postby **frankthetank** » Thu Jan 20, 2005 3:55 pm

5-10 inches is what i'm hearing...and it looks pretty good for what i can see...

The heat is on down there... from W SD down i'm seeing 60's and 70's...

going to need some of that to melt these upcoming snow piles....

sertorius · #31 Postby **sertorius** » Thu Jan 20, 2005 4:06 pm

Frankthetank:

I still love that name!! What a great movie!! Could you mail me some of that snow??? It will be a roller coaster for the next week in the central and northern plains but It really looks that by mid week next week we will begin to return to a winter pattern esp. North of me. The southern stream really looks to get going and if that does indeed happen, I could be looking at a couple of snow events. Time will tell.

sertorius · #32 Postby **sertorius** » Thu Jan 20, 2005 4:38 pm

For sure, all the action looks to be North and East of this area for the next 7 days. Good luck to everyone as this looks to be a very vigorous winter strom developing thru Sunday. This area may see some sprinkles or flurries on Saturday per the eta and gfs-hey, I haven't seen anything in 8 days-I'll take it!! The next 7-8 days look to be dry (accept the above mentioned sprinkles) and a roller coaster ride temp. wise. Sunday could be tough to get out of the 20's. http://www.wright-weather.com/wxp-model/mesoeta/h72/eta_sfc_st_72.gifbut then we moderate Monday-Wednesday. Wednesday forward I think is up in the air. The gfs has really backed off it's cold for next Wednesday and the euro has us fairly warm:
GFS: http://www.wright-weather.com/wxp-model/avn-hires/h144/avn_144_850.gif
EURO: http://www.wright-weather.com/wxp-model/ecmwf/US/ecmwf_h168_500.gif

I think the most interesting thing, is that the gfs, euro, and gem begin to show storms comming out of the southwest late next week.
gfs: http://www.wright-weather.com/wxp-model ... 92_sfc.gif
GEM: [urlhttp://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_216.html [/url]
EURO: http://www.wright-weather.com/wxp-model ... 68_500.gif
This could really make things interesting for the central plains if the southern stream gets active. I also think the 12z 240 hr euro is interesting: it looks to me, and I have been wrong before , that the hts. are really beginning to lower, there is a ridge developing in Alaska, and a trough beginnning to develop in the west.
240 12z EURO: http://www.wright-weather.com/wxp-model ... 0_500.gifI think overall, the models are really beginning to show an active pattern for the Central Plains beginning late next week. The gfs has been hinting at this for about 4 days. I have no idea how this will all play out, nor do I assume do the models, but I think it def. gives this area something to watch for after the next 7 days of dry and for the most part warm weather. I hope this makes sense and I hope I am some what on the right track-if it is all wrong, please, let me down gently LOL!!!

SnowGod · #33 Postby **SnowGod** » Thu Jan 20, 2005 5:43 pm

I gotta wonder if parts of the Midwest aren't going to have a 1912 or 1970 end of winter. PNA ridge breaks down but I think other factors will weaken the Southeast Ridges ability to overwhelm Mississipi east with warm air. 40 inches of snow in Chicago is possible between February 1st and April 1st IMO.

sertorius · #34 Postby **sertorius** » Thu Jan 20, 2005 9:22 pm

The 18z gfs for next Thursday-Saturday is a thing of beauty for Lawrence and Kansas City-I saved the images to have for keeps sakes-it is the best looking set up I have ever seen for this area on a model run!!! 850 temps. below 0 from Wednesday on-a strong low cutting across Northern Oklahoma and Northern Arkansas-if this verified, I would have 6-10 inches of snow!!! I will note that the gfs has had a storm for this time frame for the past 4 days-it just keeps waffeling on precip amounts and temperatures. But this run here, is a direct hit. Yes, it will be a totally different set up by the 0z run but I think the storm will still be there as it has been for quite a few runs. I wish it could hold-I mean it held the current track of this weeks clipper for almost a week-I can dream can't I???? Pros: the model has had the storm for 4 days; The euro and gem show slp comming out of the 4 corners at the same time. CON: the Euro is much warmer; The gfs continues to go back and forth on temps. for next week. The 18z run is colder beginning Wednesday than the 12z run was. Chances of this verifing as shown on 18z: 1%!!!! But, this situation does need to be watched-this, if it did hit, could be our biggest snow maker in years here. I will try and post some images or links:

[url]http://www.wright-weather.com/wxp-model/avn-hires/h180/avn_180_sfc.gif
http://www.wright-weather.com/wxp-model ... 80_sfc.gif
http://www.wright-weather.com/wxp-model ... 92_sfc.gif
http://www.wright-weather.com/wxp-model ... 92_850.gif[/url]

I can only dream!!!!!

sertorius · #35 Postby **sertorius** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 6:49 am

I am totally shocked: the 0z gfs kept the storm-a little lower on precip. amounts, but the ideas are still there!! This needs to be watched for next weekend-there will be alot of waffeling for the next 7 days, but, the gfs has shown this storm for almost 4 days now-gives us here something to talk about that's for sure!!!

sertorius · #36 Postby **sertorius** » Sat Jan 22, 2005 4:58 pm

I realize all the action and attention is on the North East today as it well should be-man what a storm!!! However, I find it interesting that the 12z euro and 12z gfs are in very good agreement for next week. Both show the massive warm up for Monday and Tuesday and then both show a return to colder weather beginning Wednesday-the 12z euro is much more bullish on this than it has been on earlier runs and the 12z gfs has returned to the 0z ideas. Both also show an active southern stream and the 240 500 hts. show much lower hts. as well as low in the 4 corners area. I will try and post the euro links as I have already posted some of the gfs:

http://www.wright-weather.com/wxp-model/ecmwf/US/ecmwf_h96_850.gif 850 temps. Wed.
http://www.wright-weather.com/wxp-model/ecmwf/US/ecmwf_h144_850.gif 850 temps. Friday
http://www.wright-weather.com/wxp-model/ecmwf/US/ecmwf_h144_sfc.gif slp Friday
http://www.wright-weather.com/wxp-model/ecmwf/US/ecmwf_h240_500.gif 500 hts. next Tuesday

The euro is much more bullish on the 12z run than it has been. Again, this could all be a hiccup and on the 0z it goes back to its more pronounced zonal flow. I just think it was interesting that both the 12z euro and 12z gfs were in agreement. Mid next week, if the models continue this trend, could get interersting around the central plains.

frankthetank · #37 Postby **frankthetank** » Sat Jan 22, 2005 10:50 pm

looks like another clipper goes well north of me...while kicking the temps up tuesday, it brings down the cold air for Wed-Thur

1034 right over my head...

nice to see that arctic air isn't even close to me! keep it east!(or west)...

sertorius · #38 Postby **sertorius** » Sun Jan 23, 2005 12:05 am

Frankthetank:

I totally agree on the arctic air-all it does is suppress the pattern and leave you high and dry. The clipper mid week takes me down into the 30's at least-will be intersting to watch the temp. trends this week-if the colder air-20's to low 30's stay in place from Thursday on, I could have 2 chances at a some frozen precip. late next week. The 0z gfs is just now comming out will be interesting to see if it stays the course. Time will tell of course!!

sertorius · #39 Postby **sertorius** » Sun Jan 23, 2005 8:00 am

Good Morning!! A couple of thoughts for my area: The Gfs and the Euro are both in agreement of the down turn in temps. beginning Wednesday night. They are also in agreement that beginning next weekend, the central and southern plains will become quite active for a 5-7 day period. How will it all shake out? Who knows-but it really looks like that time fram will offer chances of rain, snow, fr. rain and possibly sleet some where. To me, this looks to be my areas last really good shot at a significant winter storm. One thing the long range gfs has been showing for several runs is the prgressiveness of the pattern-by around Feb. 5th, the ridge has returned to the west and we are under its affects-the question then would be, can the trough return here in time for one more event by the middle of Feb. It has happened in the past to be sure, but once you get to the middle of Feb., climatology says, it is harder to get the temps. for frozen precip. Of course we can-we have had some block buster snows in late Feb. and early march (in 1913, we had 42 inches of snow in March!!!) but it is just not as easy as say January. Enough about that-it really looks like that beginning about Thursday, this area has a chance to see some winter weather-a chance-nothing definite as it is so far out, but thew models have been in agreement for the past couple of days of a more troughy pattern for here late this week into next-should be interesting!!! Good luck to all of you in the East-I hope everyone is safe!!! The trough looks to return full bore to you in about 14 days!!

#40 Postby **simplykristi** » Sun Jan 23, 2005 11:51 am

You forget about the llate Feb. 1993 snow?? We can still get significant snows in Feb. and March here.

Kristi

Lawrence Kansas City ideas for next 10 days

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