The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
The timing for the 'winter ends for the East' thread could not be worse, especially given the way the models have been trending.
Let's see:
• Parts of New England are likely to be blasted by a significant snowfall in the very near-term.
• The current MJO is approaching Phase 7 and Phase 8 has often seen a trough in the East:
Moreover, this is one of the stronger MJOs one has seen since Autumn and even stronger than the one that came on the heels of the mid-January cold snap that erased enormous warm anomalies from NYC northward from the first half of the month and almost wiped out even larger ones across the Mid-Atlantic.
Through February 7, DCA has seen the temperature average 3° above normal. That means, for the idea of a +10° anomaly to come through, the remainder of the month must see the temperature average more than 12° above normal. Not one model is pointing to such warmth over a sustained period of time. How about other major cities in the East? To verify the +10° prediction, Philadelphia must average +11.9° the rest of February, NYC +11.0°, and Boston +12.7°.
• The southern jet is now bristling with life and the flow is split. Often such a setup can lead to major winter storms in the East. In past seasons such synoptic situations have led to major storms.
Normally, I would not respond so strongly as had been the case in this thread. But given how out-of-proportion some of the figures were e.g., the +10°F idea for February (not to mention the even more extreme March idea!), I felt that I should respond.
Clearly, one has seen stretches of time where temperatures have averaged +10F and even +20F above normal. There is no precedent for such extremes for periods lasting well more than a month and yet that's the picture the +10F February and +20F March attempts to paint.
I don't believe Krysof meant ill. I do believe he should go to the great sites at NWSFO BOX, Upton, Mt. Holly, and Sterling and study the climatology of the region in question. Those sites contain a wealth of data.
It's my "mod" mindset showing here. Time will tell I guess.
