Ex - Tropical Cyclone INGRID (22P)

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senorpepr
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#21 Postby senorpepr » Sun Mar 06, 2005 12:20 am

HURAKAN wrote:I'M VERY PLEASED TO SAY THAT YOUR COVERAGE OF TC INGRID IS PRETTY COMPLETE CONSIDERING THE REATIVELY LOW INFORMATION THAT IS POSSIBLE TO GET FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC.


Thanks, Sandy. I try to fill the void in the Atlantic season by covering the other basins. It keeps my flexible in tropical weather, plus it helps keep me up to speed with worldwide weather -- something that I'm involved with at my job.
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#22 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Mar 06, 2005 12:30 am

senorpepr wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:I'M VERY PLEASED TO SAY THAT YOUR COVERAGE OF TC INGRID IS PRETTY COMPLETE CONSIDERING THE REATIVELY LOW INFORMATION THAT IS POSSIBLE TO GET FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC.


Thanks, Sandy. I try to fill the void in the Atlantic season by covering the other basins. It keeps my flexible in tropical weather, plus it helps keep me up to speed with worldwide weather -- something that I'm involved with at my job.


During the void season of the Atlantic I do the same, I follow very closely all the other basins that are active when the Atlantic is not. Thereafter, I can get tropical knowledge not just of the Atlantic and the EPAC, but also about all the systems around the world. Moreover, I am an amateur in this job!
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#23 Postby HurricaneBill » Sun Mar 06, 2005 12:51 am

By watching the other basins, it helps keep you from getting bored while the Atlantic is in hibernation. We simply go south for the winter. :lol:
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#24 Postby AussieMark » Sun Mar 06, 2005 1:21 am

I go North for the winter :lol:

our season is starting to get active.

March normally is a busy month
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#25 Postby HurricaneBill » Sun Mar 06, 2005 2:28 am

tropicalweatherwatcher wrote:I go North for the winter :lol:

our season is starting to get active.

March normally is a busy month


Indeed. In fact, I think we're approaching the 1-year anniversary of one of the worst cyclones to hit Madagascar: The Category 5 Cyclone Gafilo.

I was posting on hurricane.city last year, but I remember being on the night it was making landfall. That was the only thing we talked about. I remember constantly going to google to hear the latest news updates.

I remember somebody posting a satellite loop of Gafilo barreling onshore as a Category 5.

Was it the same way on this forum as well?
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#26 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Mar 06, 2005 10:05 am

Image

FINALLY, TC INGRID IS RECOGNIZED BY THE JTWC, AND CURIOUS FUTURE PATH.

Image

Name: Ingrid
Severity Category: 3
Situation At: 10PM EST Sunday 6 March 2005
Warning Area: [No coastal threat area]
Watch Area: [No coastal threat area]
Location: 13.6S 148.7E
Recent Movement: SE at 15 km/h
Remarks: At 10 pm, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid with central pressure of 975 hPa was located approximately 430 km ENE of Cooktown. It is expected to be slow moving over the next 24 hours and should continue to intensify.

At this stage, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid poses no immediate threat to the Queensland coast.


Marine users please note: Warnings specific to the marine community are contained in Coastal Wind Warnings and Ocean Wind Warnings. Refer to those warnings for the winds associated with Tropical Cyclone Ingrid.

The next track map will be issued by 5 am EST Monday 7 March.

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 11:00pm EST on Sunday the 6th of March 2005

Severe tropical cyclone Ingrid has intensified to a category 3 cyclone in the
northern Coral Sea.

At 11pm EST, severe tropical cyclone Ingrid, category 3 with central pressure
975 hPa, was located near 13.6S 148.7E, about 430 kilometres east-northeast of
Cooktown. It is now near stationary.

Severe tropical cyclone Ingrid is expected to remain slow moving over the next
24 hours and should continue to intensify.

At this stage Ingrid poses no immediate threat to the north coast of Queensland.

The next information Bulletin will be issued at 5 am EST Monday 7 March.

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1239 UTC 6 March 2005

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid central pressure 975 hectopascals centred at
061200UTC near 13.6 south 148.7 east. Recent movement near stationary. Position
Good. Ingrid is expected to be very slow moving over the next 24 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 80nm of the centre of the cyclone.

FORECAST
Expect clockwise winds 30/40 knots, increasing to 40/50 knots within 30 nm of
the centre, and to 70 knots near the centre. Winds expected to increase to 80
knots near the centre by 070000UTC.

Seas very rough, rising very high to phenomenal within 30 nm of the centre.
Moderate to heavy swells developing.

Forecast position 070000UTC 13.7S 148.6E. Central pressure 970 hPa.
Forecast position 071200UTC 13.7S 148.4E. Central pressure 960 hPa.

Image

TC INGRID SEEMS TO BE INTENSIFYING BY THE MINUTE, AND IF THE TRACK OF THE JTWC IS CORRECT, QUEENSLAND'S EAST COAST SHOULD BE PREPARING FOR AT LEAST VERY HEAVY SEAS OVER THE NEXT DAYS.
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#27 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Mar 06, 2005 10:18 am

Image

WEB PAGE:
http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR19 ... html#image

This is the Radar of Cairns, Australia, and what you see in the NE of the image are the first bands of convection of Tropical Cyclone Ingrid getting closer to the Australian mainland. The convection may look weak prabably because this is a 256 km shot and the system is still very far. In the loop, that I provided as a web page, you can see the motion of the clouds from SE to NW, clearly indicating a clockwise circulation. If the cyclone gets closer over the next days, the image will get better.
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#28 Postby Scorpion » Sun Mar 06, 2005 10:28 am

975 MB? That is an astonishingly high pressure for a Cat 3, especially in this basin. Normally the pressure should equate to a Cat 1.
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#29 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Mar 06, 2005 10:36 am

Scorpion wrote:975 MB? That is an astonishingly high pressure for a Cat 3, especially in this basin. Normally the pressure should equate to a Cat 1.


Image

AUSTRALIA DON'T RELY IN THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE, THEY HAVE THEIR OWN SCALE. I HOPE THE CHART ABOVE HELPS YOU UNDERSTAND WHY THIS IS A CAT. 3 STORM.
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#30 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Mar 06, 2005 10:41 am

Image

INGRID IS LOOKING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED, EVEN AN EYE IS DEVELOPING.
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#31 Postby P.K. » Sun Mar 06, 2005 11:45 am

06/1525 UTC 13.8S 149.1E T4.0/4.0 INGRID -- South Pacific Ocean
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#32 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Mar 06, 2005 12:52 pm

P.K. wrote:06/1525 UTC 13.8S 149.1E T4.0/4.0 INGRID -- South Pacific Ocean


It seems like we have a hurricane in our hands.
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#33 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Mar 06, 2005 2:37 pm

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1832 UTC 6 March 2005

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid central pressure 970 hectopascals centred at
061800UTC near 13.8 south 149.0 east. Recent movement near stationary. Position
Good. Ingrid is expected to be very slow moving over the next 24 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 80nm of the centre of the cyclone.

FORECAST
Expect clockwise winds 30/40 knots, increasing to 40/50 knots within 30 nm of
the centre, and to 75 knots near the centre. Winds expected to increase to 85
knots near the centre by 070600UTC.

Seas very rough, rising very high to phenomenal within 30 nm of the centre.
Moderate to heavy swells developing.

Forecast position 070600UTC 13.9S 149.2E. Central pressure 965 hPa.
Forecast position 071800UTC 14.0S 149.0E. Central pressure 960 hPa.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE


BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 0435 EST on Monday the 7th of March 2005

Severe tropical cyclone Ingrid has intensified to a category 3 cyclone overnight
in the northern Coral Sea.

At 4am EST, severe tropical cyclone Ingrid, category 3 with central pressure 970
hPa, was located near 13.8S 149.0E, about 445 kilometres east-northeast of
Cooktown. It is now near stationary.

Severe tropical cyclone Ingrid is expected to remain slow moving over the next
24 hours and should continue to intensify.

At this stage Ingrid poses no immediate threat to the north coast of Queensland.

The next information Bulletin will be issued at 11 am EST Monday 7 March.

Image

Name: Ingrid
Severity Category: 3
Situation At: 4AM EST Monday 7 March 2005
Warning Area: [No coastal threat area]
Watch Area: [No coastal threat area]
Location: 13.8S 149.0E
Recent Movement: SE at 10 km/h
Remarks: At 4am, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid with central pressure of 970 hPa was located approximately 445 km ENE of Cooktown. It is expected to be slow moving over the next 24 hours and should continue to intensify.

At this stage, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid poses no immediate threat to the Queensland coast.


Marine users please note: Warnings specific to the marine community are contained in Coastal Wind Warnings and Ocean Wind Warnings. Refer to those warnings for the winds associated with Tropical Cyclone Ingrid.

The next track map will be issued by 11 am EST Monday 7 March.

TC INGRID continues to get better organizated, the pressure continues to go down, and now Monterey says it's a 65 knots tropical cyclone. BoM says winds are around 75 knots. Further organization and intensification is expected to continue.
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#34 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Mar 06, 2005 2:41 pm

Image

INGRID IS BEGINNING TO EXPRESS ITS CONTAINED POWER, THE SYSTEM BEAUTIFULLY SMALL, COMPACT, AND AN EYE IS COMMENCING TO DEVELOP IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SPIRALING BANDS OF CONVECTION.

EVEN THOUGH IT'S NOT RELATED TO THE ABOVE INFORMATION, "INGRID" WILL BE USED IN THE ATLANTIC IN THE 2007 SEASON REPLACING "IRIS."
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#35 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Mar 06, 2005 3:38 pm

Image


TC INGRID CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY, MOVEMENT VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAYS. THE WARM WATERS OF THE CORAL SEA SHOULD HELP INGRID IN ITS FUTURE.
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#36 Postby P.K. » Sun Mar 06, 2005 4:04 pm

Steadily increasing now:
06/2025 UTC 13.8S 148.9E T4.5/4.5 INGRID -- South Pacific Ocean
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#37 Postby Anonymous » Sun Mar 06, 2005 4:12 pm

Very impressive storm. Where does Australia get its info? Looks like the US gives their govt the forecast and then they issue the warnings because all the graphics look like JTWC/Navy made maps and satellites. Also, the time zone they use is EST/miami's.
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#38 Postby HurricaneBill » Sun Mar 06, 2005 4:17 pm

I wonder if Ingrid might turn back. The east coast of Australia hasn't seen an intense cyclone since Cyclone Aivu in 1989.
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#39 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Mar 06, 2005 4:29 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:I wonder if Ingrid might turn back. The east coast of Australia hasn't seen an intense cyclone since Cyclone Aivu in 1989.


Image
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#40 Postby Gorky » Sun Mar 06, 2005 7:35 pm

Showing a better defined eye now


Image
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