Severe Tropical Cyclone Juliet (Ex-Adeline)

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HURAKAN
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#21 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Apr 08, 2005 10:37 pm

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A VERY POWERFULL SYSTEM JULIET HAS BECOME!
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#22 Postby P.K. » Sat Apr 09, 2005 5:02 am

:eek:

915hPa, 110kts. Dropped by 20hPa in 6 hours. :eek:

09/0830 UTC 17.5S 69.3E T7.0/7.0 JULIET -- South Indian Ocean

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#23 Postby Aquawind » Sat Apr 09, 2005 8:38 am

Wow.. Impressive CDO alrighty..Looks like anyone on Rodrignes island better hunker down...

Paul
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#24 Postby P.K. » Sat Apr 09, 2005 1:55 pm

910hPa, 115kts.

Meto France have it dropping to TS strength on the 12th, however the JTWC have it still at 115kts (1 minute averages) at 6am GMT on the 11th.
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#25 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Apr 09, 2005 3:52 pm

The T numbers say it is 140 knots which is a cat5.

7.0/7.0...That has high as Ivan... I don't know why they are not fellowing that.
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#26 Postby P.K. » Sat Apr 09, 2005 4:00 pm

Using 10 minute averages it is around 115ks. Taking one minute averages at around 135ks given the Dvorak analysis Meto France have it as a 6.5. :)
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#27 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Apr 09, 2005 4:05 pm

The Jtwc uses the American system so they come out with a 7.0=140 knots. So your telling me that some of those systems down there that are given 140 knots are really over 160 knot cyclones?

Kind of weird? :roll:
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#28 Postby P.K. » Sat Apr 09, 2005 4:55 pm

As far as I know only the USA uses 1 minute wind averages for these things. The JTWC currently has it at 130kts which is the 1 minute eqivalent of a 10 minute 115kt average.

Edit - I think met stations here use 10 minute averages as well.

Edit 2 - Something to compare with Meteo France and JTWC forecasts.

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.04.2005

TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIET ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8S 68.5E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 09.04.2005 17.8S 68.5E STRONG

00UTC 10.04.2005 18.8S 66.0E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 10.04.2005 20.8S 64.4E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 11.04.2005 22.9S 63.8E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 11.04.2005 24.4S 63.8E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 12.04.2005 27.7S 64.6E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 12.04.2005 30.3S 67.9E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 13.04.2005 32.1S 72.5E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 13.04.2005 EXTRA TROPICAL

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK
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#29 Postby P.K. » Sun Apr 10, 2005 5:26 am

910hPa, 120kts - Reached 905hPa, 120kts at midnight last night making it a Very Intense Tropical Cyclone.

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#30 Postby senorpepr » Sun Apr 10, 2005 7:40 pm

P.K. wrote:910hPa, 120kts - Reached 905hPa, 120kts at midnight last night making it a Very Intense Tropical Cyclone.


When converting MFR's estimate of 120kts into US standards, Adeline-Juliet was 160 mph.
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#31 Postby HurricaneBill » Mon Apr 11, 2005 1:56 am

senorpepr wrote:
P.K. wrote:910hPa, 120kts - Reached 905hPa, 120kts at midnight last night making it a Very Intense Tropical Cyclone.


When converting MFR's estimate of 120kts into US standards, Adeline-Juliet was 160 mph.


That makes Adeline-Juliet the 4th tropical cyclone to reach Category 5 (Saffir-Simpson) status in 2005.

1. Cyclone Olaf
2. Cyclone Percy
3. Cyclone Ingrid
4. Cyclone Adeline-Juliet
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#32 Postby Gorky » Mon Apr 11, 2005 2:21 am

If you look at it season long, wouldn't Bento back November also count? Reached 140kt 1 min average. Cannot recall what MFR rated it at however...
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#33 Postby P.K. » Mon Apr 11, 2005 6:17 am

Gorky wrote:If you look at it season long, wouldn't Bento back November also count? Reached 140kt 1 min average. Cannot recall what MFR rated it at however...


That reached 115kts, 915hPa (10 minute average)

90kts.

PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE JULIET

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 935 HPA.
POSITION LE 11 AVRIL A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 23.2 SUD / 63.5 EST
(VINGT-TROIS DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE-TROIS DEGRES CINQ EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 820 KM A L'EST-SUD-EST
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#34 Postby P.K. » Tue Apr 12, 2005 4:10 am

60kts and now extratropical.

PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

DEPRESSION EXTRA-TROPICALE EX-JULIET

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 980 HPA.
POSITION LE 12 AVRIL A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 27.3 SUD / 65.8 EST
(VINGT-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE-CINQ DEGRES HUIT EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1215 KM A L'EST-SUD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST A 22 KM/H.
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